The Bombers got up in their last game at the G, however they could be in for a painful afternoon in Melbourne this weekend. Essendon come up against a top four team, and an outfit who have a couple of superstars in career best form. Dangerfield has come into Brownlow favoritism after the opening rounds, and Joel Selwood is putting in some a-grade performances.
After their shock victory a couple of weeks back, the Bombers were very poor against Port in front of the Chinese audience. They’ve had a few shining lights this year, Merrett, Parish and Mcdonald-Tipungwuti (commentators nightmare) have all put in decent performances.
Obviously Essendon were coming into this year’s comp with a lack of man power, which will massively show against Selwood and Danger. Also, expect their backline to have a tricky day accounting for Tomahawk and Kersten.
There is more chance of me getting the boots out and kicking a handful for the Blues this weekend than Essendon saluting. However I’m not going to tell you to load up on the Cats at $1.05. Get on Geelong, and be a bit adventurous and back them to win by 73 or more at $2.8.
Selwood is a freak, all the media attention has been on Dangerfield however Joel is also producing the goods in the midfield. He’s yet to kick a goal this season which will disappoint the Geelong legend, however he’s averaging 26.3 disposals a game. He’ll find himself in a lot more space today, get on him to have the most disposals at $8.
Hawthorn v St Kilda
Hawthorn host a buoyant Saints team after their brilliant win against the Pies. Geez, I didn’t mind seeing Collingwood go down, even if it did cost me a tip. Clarkson’s Hawks are strong favourites for the clash, and like St Kilda will arrive at Aurora Stadium in high spirits after recording back-to-back wins.
Hawks only just got over the line against Western Bulldogs last weekend, mainly thanks to Mitchell, Burgoyne and Birchall. They were pretty poor in the last round in terms of clearances and contested possessions, but being champions I expect them to have put in the hard yards this week.
Having Nick Riewoldt is massive for the Saints, even though they don’t stand a chance with him playing they wouldn’t have any clue without him. Luke Hodge is back for the Hawks, they didn’t need a boost for this game but they’ve certainly got one.
Similarly to the Hawks game, I’m not going to tell you to back such a short price. Hawthorn will get the job done, I’m backing them to win by 29.5+ at $1.44, might still be short, but a collect is a collect!
Mitchell was pretty stiff not to get the Brownlow last season in my eyes, inspired by that narrow loss he’s started the 2016 on fire! He racked up an average of over 35 disposals in two outings against pretty sharp opposition. Against a weaker outfit he’s guaranteed to pick up at least 30, I’m doubling him into Sicily to kick three or more at a very handsome looking $3.8. It might also be worth having a sniff at Mitchell to have over 40 disposals at $5.6.
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast
The Qclash has to be one of the worst Derby names in sport! I’ve read this week that my old team have the upper hand in the head-to-head record with the Suns, I can’t see that lasting much longer. The Saturday afternoon match-up is a battle of two teams heading in two completely different directions, this is easily shown by looking at the ladder. The Suns are sitting pretty just behind the Swans at the top whereas my old boys are bottom of the table, dreaming of a win.
The Lions have had three pretty hefty defeats to start the season, and are not only bottom of the ladder but are ranked last for disposals, and both contested and uncontested possessions. It hurts me to say it (even though I do most weeks), the Lions could be tamed again this week. I can’t quite believe you can get on the Suns at $1.44 with one bookie. I’m going to jump on at $2.38 for Gold Coast to win by 25+ points at the Gabba.
Gary Ablett has racked up some decent numbers this season, helped a lot by the strength of the opposition. He managed to record 34+ disposals against both the Bombers and Blues. You’d be a very brave man not to be backing him for most disposals today, well worth a punt at $2.5.
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Only four games into the Saturday matches and there are already three games with odds of $1.1 or lower! If you’re a short priced mutli backer you’ll be licking your tight lips. I can’t wait for Carlton to take on Brisbane so I can finally tip one of my old teams to win a few points…
Will Carlton trouble Bulldogs today? No, they simply don’t stand a chance, any man who tells you otherwise is drunk already. The Blues have lost by a combined margin of 114 points in their last two matches. That came after pushing the Tigers, which we now know wasn’t that impressive. Carlton is packed full of young promising talent, players who will go onto amazing things but are not ready to turnover big teams.
Bevo’s men sit third in the competition and even though they lost to Hawthorn last week, they completely dominated them in some aspects of the game. They’re an impressive bunch and looks like they’ll be playing finals this season. Carlton lack experience, they’ll be blown away today, their confidence will be shot going into the last quarter, which is why I’m backing the Bulldogs to win the 4th by 12.5 or more at $1.86.
I’m chasing a bit of value in my player bet for this one, as there are major points on offer for all of Western Bulldog’s players. Bontempelli hasn’t had the best of seasons in front of the posts but I’m backing him to kick three or more, doubled with Wallis having 30+ disposals. Bit of a strange one I admit, but my longshot landed last weekend so there is nothing stopping this $18 tip coming good!
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Adelaide v Sydney
This looks like the game of the round, it will be the Swans first real challenge this term. Buddy is well and truly back for Sydney, he’s kicked twelve goals in his first three games as he mounts a challenge for the Coleman. He’s been supported by other freakish performances by Parker, Hannebery etc.
It can be argued that these two teams have the most firepower in the league. Franklin and Tippett remain Sydney’s main threats whereas the Crows have a dangerous quartet in Lynch, Jenkins, Betts and Walker.
I’ve already seen that Oddschecker’s experts have backed Adelaide to win the evening fixture, however I can’t look past the away team. Sydney might have played pretty poor oppo, but they look the real deal. I’m sticking with them at $1.87.
Buddy is warming into the season nicely, averaging three a game. He’ll need to put in a stand out performance this week if his team is to take the points back to Sydney. You can get on the big man to kick 4+ goals at $2.55.
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GWS v Port Adelaide
On to Sunday, Port travel to Sydney to take on GWS which looks an intriguing fixture. I’ve given GWS a spray more than once this season and it won’t be a shock to you I’m once again tipping against them.
The Giants lack a lot of players, and look like they’ll be short in front of goal without Cameron. Power themselves haven’t blown us away this season but this could be the win to ignite any finals talk.
Get on Port to win at a generous $2, they’ll need to win to keep their hundreds of Chinese fans happy.
Robbie Gray produced me the goods last weekend when I tipped up a $13 double in the Friday night fixture. He’s the bright light for Port, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Brownlow rumors started for him soon. I’m on him again to have a day out, he’s massively overpriced at $4.5 to have the most disposals.
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Collingwood v Melbourne
Can you hear that? It’s silence, thanks to the Pies shock defeat to the Saints. Just imagine how quiet it will be if the Demons can cause an upset at the G.
The Pies are battling to save their season in Round three, and many already think this fixture is a must win. Collingwood still lack potent goal kickers, if Travis Cloke was more accurate last round it would have been a totally different story.
A win will keep the pressure of Buckley for another couple of weeks, it might not be smooth sailing but they’ll have too much for Melbourne. The demons are a team on the way up but get on Collingwood at $1.47
Scott Pendlebury has stood up since the Swann injury, he’ll be vital in pulling this team together on Sunday. He’s a player all the boys look up to, and even in a poor game last round he still recorded 27 possessions. He’s a very tasty price to have the most disposals against Melbourne at $5.5.
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North Melbourne v Fremantle
North were pushed all the way against the Demons, but managed to get over the line by just five points. They’re back in action at the Etihad against a Dockers side desperate for points. Freo were many pundits picks to reach the Granny, however Lyon’s men are winless in the opening three rounds. Another defeat would heap pressure on the coach and put a serious dent in making their aspirations of making finals.
The Dockers looked harder to score against last round compared to the opening couple of games, however, they still went down by 33 points. They’re without key man Sandilands this weekend, which will be pleasing for the Roo’s big man Todd Goldstein.
Fremantle will unfortunately go four games without a win this weekend, without their key ruckman I fear they won’t be able to control North. The Roos are a short price, therefore I’m backing them to win the first and second half at $1.5.
Nick Dal Santo hasn’t had the best of starts to the season, however I can’t turn down the $8.5 price tag for him to get the most disposals in the final game of the round.