Fevola - Round Five Tips

Fev gives his round 5 tips, which includes several big value plays!

Brendan Fevola
Thu, 21 Apr, 12:00 AM

Swans v Eagles

I can’t wait for this clash! West Coast travel to Sydney to take on the Swans at the SCG. The rest of the games in the round will have to go a bit to match-up to the opening couple of clashes.

Once again both sides have the same record, winning three and losing one. The Swans were unbeaten before going down to the Crows last weekend. However, they possess one of the most well rounded teams in the ladder, Parker, Kennedy and Hannebery rule the middle, and Franklin and Tippett get the job done.

West Coast were missing their star man, Matthew Priddis, last week but still managed to get over the line. Once again their forwards are serving them well, Kennedy and Darling are both averaging three a game.

This will be great game, I’m going to get on Sydney, they’re looking the real deal this season. Their forward line is one of the best in the league, they came up short last weekend, but should have enough to account for West Coast at home.

Buddy is back to his best and looks like he’ll mount a good challenge for the Coleman Medal this season. He’s supported by an absolute gun midfield and of course Tippett. He’s averaging four a game and I back the big man to continue this trend, he’ll boot four or more at $2.25.

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Kangaroos v Suns

North are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder, and come off a 31 point win against Freo. They face the Suns, who were unbeaten before last week’s shock loss to Brisbane. If you predicted a win for the Lions last round, get the phone and rind Oddschecker, you can have my gig!

The Suns rely heavily on Ablett, Hall and Lynch, I would expect the Kangas to opt for a tag on Ablett to try and limit his presence. Neither of these teams will finish in the top four come the end of the season but they’re playing good football which leads to an exciting match.

If North play their cards right they could come out clear winners but this will require them nullifying Gary’s threat. Get on the visiting team winning both halves at $1.62.

Gary was far from his best last week with only 24 disposals, he’s the key to this team. We all saw last season how poor the Suns can be with out the superstar. Even though Ablett was limited with touches he still averages almost 30 a game this term. Get on him to have the most disposals in this one at $2.25.

INSURANCE: Back a first goal-scorer who doesn't score first but gets one in the first quarter? Get your stake refunded as a bonus bet! See here! T&Cs Apply.

Bulldogs v Lions

Another team who have had a brilliant start to the season are Western Bulldogs. The Dogs don’t kick the most but they’ve only conceded a remarkable 216 points in four games. They’ve only been beaten by Hawthorn in Round three, they bounced back to win comfortably against Carlton last round.

Brisbane Lions produced one of the shocks of the season last week when they turned over the Suns. The more amazing stat was, they had 37 scoring shots, Gee I would have loved that many chances in my time at Brisbane.

The kicking percentages of Brisbane and Bulldogs defence only points to one outcome, a Dogs win. The home team will rule the midfield, and supply the forwards a lot more kicks at goal than previous weeks. You’d be a brave (stupid) man to bet against a home win, but I said that last weekend. The $1.13 is far too short to tip, therefore I’m on the Dogs to lead every quarter at $1.49.

Sportsbet are offering Liberatore at $3.75 to have the most disposals between a select number of players. His main competition will come from Dahlhaus. Even so, this looks massively over priced!

ENHANCED ODDS: Get a boosted $2.50 for Jack Stringer to kick 4 or more goals and the Bulldogs to win the match! See here! T&Cs Apply.

Power v Cats

Port Adelaide were labelled a disgrace by their club president last round, which isn’t far from the truth after they slumped to a 86 point loss against GWS. Port are gaining a reputation of being hyped up every season and not producing the goods, this year is no different.

Geelong on the otherhand looked world beaters in round one but have been inconsistent in their last three fixtures. The Cats were far from convincing in their victory over the bombers which will scare a lot of punters who lumped on after round one.

Port’s confidence will be low especially after the spray they received, this week will be a real test of character. If they manage to get up and pull off a shock against Geelong then they’ll be a decent bet to make finals, if they sulk and slump to a loss avoid long-term bets.

Even though the Cats looked far from their best in the last round, I’m backing them to beat an already beaten Port team. $1.75 for a Geelong win is a price you ignore!

Even though I’ve backed the Cats to defeat Port Adelaide, I can’t see them running away with the game. Therefore I’ll be loading up on the $1.35 Port + 23.5.

ENHANCED ODDS: Get a juicy $3.50 for Tom Hawkins to kick 4 or more goals and Geelong to win the match! See Here! T&Cs Apply.

St Kilda v GWS

The Saints almost produced the shock of the season last week, even I felt for them after their three point loss to the Hawks. As for the Giants, I’m really struggling to make my mind up on their chances this season. They’ve won two, lost two, but that thumping win over Port sent a few warning signs to the rest of the AFL clubs.

Jeremy Cameron was the difference last time these two played, kicking five goals, and he’s back this weekend! He makes a huge difference to this team, who knows how many Port would have lost by last week if he was eligible.

The Saints will carry heaps of momentum into Round five despite their loss, and call me crazy but I’m tipping the home team to win.

Bit of an outside pick for the Saints game, I’m jumping on Leigh Montagna to have one of his best games in a St Kilda outfit. He’s had a cracking start to the season, already averaging over 31 disposals a game. He had a decent game last time out against the Hawks, I’m on him at $4.9 to register over 35 disposals this weekend.

ENHANCED ODDS: Don's miss the enhanced $4 on offer about Stevie Johnson kicking 3 or more goals and GWS winning the match! Offer here! T&Cs Apply.

Dockers v Blues

17th face 18th on Sunday in a game which the ladder suggests should be close and of poor quality. It’s a bad sign for my old club that they’re $6.5 to beat a team sitting second bottom.

The Dockers have been piss-poor, this set of players shouldn’t be this low on the table. Pundits, friends, family, the dog, everyone was raving about their defensive qualities a few months back but they’ve shipped a massive 453 points in the opening four games. Luckily for them, Carlton don’t get the chance to kick many, only scoring 244.

Fremantle showed signs of a recovery last week against the Kangaroos, mainly due to Fyfe having an influence on the game. The gun midfielder will get his season and clubs final chances back on track with a win at the Domain Stadium. Get on them to win, and win by 40+ at $2.16.

Fyfe showed signs of last seasons form last weekend, even though he and his team have a had a very poor start the season, I’m shocked to see him priced at $2 to have over 30 disposals. He should cruise to this number against a weak Carlton team. It could also be worth popping a few dollars on over 35 at $5.6.

INSURANCE: Back a first goal-scorer who doesn't score first but gets one in the first quarter? Get your stake refunded as a bonus bet! See here! T&Cs Apply.

Demons v Tigers

The Tigers hurt my eyes last week, it’s not often I want to leave a pub but I found myself questioning if it was worth another sip (of course it was). West Coast’s defenders had one of the easiest days of their career, thanks to Richmond playing at a sluggish pace.

It’s lucky the Tigers played Carlton week one otherwise they’d be without a win this season. It’s obvious what Hardwick’s men need to do, they need to play at a faster pace and occasionally go direct. In contrast Melbourne have had a fairly pleasing start to the season, things could be a lot better if they managed to get the job done against the Bombers. But it wouldn’t be the Demons without the odd clanger.

After last weeks showing you’d have to pick a Melbourne win but they’re far too inconsistent for me. I’ve seen pundits all week raving about the Demons being a great price at $2.26. Ludicrous, get on Richmond to take the four points at $1.75.

Brandon Ellis was one of many players who were terrible last weekend for the Tigers. This boy is much better than that! He’ll be key to making Richmond playing quicker more direct footy, get on him to more influential against Melbourne and record over 30 disposals at $2.2.

ENHANCED ODDS: If Jesse Hogan kicks 3 or more goals and the Demons win the match, collect a boosted $3.50! See Here! T&Cs Apply.

Magpies v Bombers

Don’t you just love watching the Pies having a shocker! They sit 15th on the ladder with one win to their name and the exact same record as Essendon. Even though this game consists of two teams playing poor football it’s still a huge match!

Bombers were obviously expected to suffer this season, but the Pies were not predicted to get off to this start. They were humbled by cross town rivals Melbourne last weekend, heaping even more pressure on Buckley. They turn to 211 cm Mason Cox to turn things round, he looks an exciting prospect but can he hack the MCG on ANZAC Day.

If the Bombers can get off to a good start the Pies could crumble under pressure, they need to keep the massive crowd on their side. I can’t quite believe the Pies are as short as $1.36 considering their form, however they will win. Get on Collingwood to win the first and second half at $1.64 with one bookie.

Darcy Moore hasn’t started the season as most expected for the Pies, however all will be forgotten if he lights up the G on Anzac Day. Get on the Collingwood forward kicking the most goals and also kicking the first at $10.

INSURANCE: Back a first goal-scorer who doesn't score first but gets one in the first quarter? Get your stake refunded as a bonus bet! See here! T&Cs Apply.

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