Fevola - Round Seven Tips

AFL legend Brendan Fevola has cast his expert eye over all of the weekends fixtures

Brendan Fevola
Fri, 6 May, 3:53 PM

Collingwood v Carlton

My old boys have got the exact same win-loss record compared to their rivals today. However, their Victorian rivals Collingwood means they head into the second game of the round slight favourites.

On paper the Pies are the better team but the Blues are playing well under Bolton and have promising players throughout their ranks. Carlton have been pretty tight at the back but have struggled to kick the goals, averaging a measly 65 points a game.

It’s a huge test for future gun Cripps, he’ll be tasked with trying to keep Pendlebury and Treloar quiet. Collingwood don’t look too convincing this season, injuries have certainly hampered them but still they look suspect against any oppo.

My boys stand a real chance, I’m going to take them at the line (+10.75). If you’re hunting value in this match, then look no further than Patrick Cripps to have 30 disposals and Fasolo to kick three at $7.6.

Geelong v West Coast

West Coast worry me on the road, I would have to think twice about tipping against them back in Perth, but it’s been ages since they collected points on their travels.

Geelong will definitely play finals now, the recruit of Dangerfield has worked and the team are playing good footy, which was highlighted by a 120 point win last time out. The battle in the midfield could be one for the classics, both team host incredible talent in the middle of the park. That said, Patrick Dangerfield is still the stand out player for me, and with the likes of Gaff and Priddis playing you can get value for Danger to have most disposals at $4.

Home advantage is pretty much the only reason why I’m tipping the Cats, they’re playing good footy at Simonds Stadium, where as the Eagles are very poor on the road.

Sydney Swans v Essendon

There is simply no way Essendon can win away at Sydney. The Swans sit third on the ladder, and as expected the Bombers are near the bottom of the ladder with one win to their name.

Sydney’s big players are firing this season, even though they were slightly off as a team last time out, their stand out players managed to secure the points. The Dons have had plenty of the ball but they’ve been boringly slow in possession, it really has been awful to watch.

The Bombers have averaged a pathetic 60 points a game, hence why they’re a $19 shot to win today. Sydney will smash them, however I’m not tipping a $1.02 shot, instead with Sydney’s attacking force I’m lumping on a 10 goal hiding at $1.45.

Franklin can march his way up the Coleman rankings this weekend, the ex-hawks player is well worth backing at $3 to kick six or more.

Gold Coast v Melbourne

Even with the injury worries at the Suns, I still think they’re value to beat the Demons. Both teams come into the fixture with a 3-3 win-loss ratio, hence why the odds are so tight.

This game could be separated by the two main forwards, Jesse Logan landed me a $9 tip last week and slotted seven, whereas Tom Lynch is raising a few eyebrows with his form in-front of the posts. Gold Coast have had shocking luck with injury in recent years, if all their squad was available they’d cruise to victory. Melbourne look like they have a promising future, however we can’t carried away just yet. The Suns will win, get on at $1.84.

Admittedly Gary Ablett isn’t fully fit, but the ex-brownlow winner will be able to find a bit of space in the midfield today. He offers value at $5 for most disposals, mainly thanks to players attention being directed at his teammate Aaron Hall.

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

This is the game of the round for me, and it’s another fixture which has paired two teams with identical records this season. The clash pits two of the competitions most exciting teams, neither have been shy in front of the posts.

Bulldogs came unstuck last time out against North, which is nothing to be disheartened about. They’ll be frustrated by the number of points they scored however. Beveridge’s forward line will find it much easier going against Adelaide, but their defence will have a difficult day trying to account for Adelaide’s attack.

I don’t believe the Bulldogs forwards can match Adelaide’s, for that reason I’m going to back the Crows at the line. Only a couple of teams in the comp compare to the Crows attacking four, Betts, Jenkins, Walker and Lynch.

Eddie Betts comes off the back of kicking five, I’m getting on my old mate to kick three today, combined with Thompson having 30+ disposals at $3.2.

Fremantle v GWS

Fremantle sit bottom of the ladder with their main man missing, and GWS are off the back of smashing Hawks. You’d be crazy to tip the Dockers, but I am….

Freo showed signs of improvement against the Crows last time out, but lacked composure in front of goal. Last year’s table toppers aren’t as bad as their position suggests, and they’ve got the experience to turn their season around.

GWS are a funny old team, I didn’t think they had a performance like last week in them. That said they won’t make finals as they rely far too heavily on certain individuals. Dockers are missing Fyfe and Sandilands, but with Neale and Hill they still have quality players in the midfield.

On paper I don’t think Fremantle should be $3.4, they’ll take some confidence from last weekend and with home advantage, they look a good bet. Michael Walters kicked three last time out, I’m backing him to go one better against the Giants, he’s $6 to slot four or more.

St Kilda v North Melbourne

A team undefeated in six playing St Kilda but are still priced at $1.36… I know it’s not massive but seems overs to me. I can’t see any way that the Saints can produce an upset at the Etihad.

Jarrad Waite is in the form of his life, hats off to him still performing at the level in the back part of his career. The Saints have gone with an unchanged team after beating the Demons last week, and a bit like Melbourne they look to have plenty of future talent in their ranks. Even though St Kilda have raised a few eyebrows this season, they’ll struggle against North.

Going to chuck in my big bet of the round in this fixture, I’m taking the $12 on offer for Steven to have the most possessions and Waite to kick the most goals.

Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions

Port came back into form when they impressively defeated Richmond last Saturday at the G, however that win will mean nothing if they can’t beat Brisbane at home.

Lions showed plenty of fight against Sydney, but I still think my old club will struggle this round. They managed to beat Power at the Gabba last season, this itself was a one off, and will be even harder to repeat at the Adelaide Oval.

Port’s midfield will be too good for Brisbane, I also believe they’ll struggle to contain both Dixon and Wingard. Get on the $1.45 on offer for Port to win and also $4.5 for Wingard to kick three or more.

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