AFL Betting Preview Round 9

Our AFL expert balances a good combination of short prices with big value plays this round.

Fri, 20 May, 9:13 AM

Collingwood Magpies v Geelong Cats

The Magpies released the pressure valve for besieged coach Nathan Buckley with a massive victory over Brisbane in round eight, but Saturday arvo’s bout against Geelong is the next level up. The Cats are coming off an important win over Adelaide. In that game, the contest was still on the line midway through the last term despite the fact that Geelong finished the match with 33 scoring shots to 17. The hoops have too much firepower for Collingwood and we reckon they will be too good this weekend. Back the Cats to lead at the end of every quarter ($1.70 with Sportsbet) and Geelong veteran Joel Selwood to get at least 30 touches ($2.20 with Sportsbet).

Get on Tom Hawkins to Kick 4 or More Goals and Geelong Cats Win the Match at $2.75! See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

Gold Coast Suns v Adelaide Crows

Gold Coast have been embarrassing in the past three weeks, with an average losing margin of 80 points, but what has been more worrying is the colossal scores they have conceded. The Suns come into Saturday’s home clash against the Crows having leaked 168 points (Geelong, round six), 160 points (Melbourne, round seven) and 149 points (GWS, round eight). It’s a ridiculously bad record and we are backing the Crows to capitalise on the glitter strip this weekend. Back Adelaide to win by more than 45.5 points ($2.50 with Luxbet) and score at least 121 points, which is paying $1.68 with Sportsbet. If you have the balls, go for Adelaide to score 150 or more ($4.30 with Sportsbet).

Get on Scott Thompson to have 30 or more Disposals & Adelaide Crows win the match at $2.50! See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

Port Adelaide Power v West Coast Eagles

This is a huge game for both clubs, but for different reasons. Port’s stuttering season hit another roadblock in round eight when they were pipped by Carlton. West Coast have not won on the road this season and have lost their past seven away games in an alarming streak that stretches back to last year. However, their losses on the road in 2016 have been to highly-rated Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong. So, we are backing them to beat the Power on their home patch this Saturday. Go for an Eagles/Eagles half-time/full-time double ($1.59 with Sportsbet) and the first scoring play at the Portress to be a West Coast goal, which most corporates are spruiking for $3.10.

Get on Josh Kennedy to Kick 4 or More Goals and West Coast Eagles Win the Match at $2.50. See here for details.

North Melbourne Kangaroos v Carlton Blues

He kicked the winning goal against Port, but luckless Blues big man Matthew Kreuzer will not feature against the Roos on Saturday night because of a knee injury. It’s not the only injury headache for Carlton, whose four-game winning streak appears set to be snapped by North Melbourne at Docklands this weekend. Big Blue Levi Casboult (fractured leg) will also be absent and, as good as Carlton have been in the past month, those two outs make it very hard. We think the Kangas will get the job done and are backing them to win by at least 21.5 points ($1.66 with Luxbet) and Roo Jarrad Waite to kick the first goal against his former club ($8 with Sportsbet).

Get on Jack Ziebell to have 26 or more Disposals & North Melbourne win the match at $3. See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

Fremantle Dockers v Richmond Tigers

Amid all the conjecture about who will take the points between these two disappointments on Saturday night, one thing is certain, football is the loser. Richmond were gutsy in their last-gasp win over the Swans in round eight, while Freo were in it for a half against the Hawks in Launceston but lost another soldier when midfielder Stephen Hill (adductor) went down. He will miss this clash at Subi. Fremantle have been threatening in the past month and we think they will break their duck. Get on the Dockers to win, paying about $1.80 with most bookies, and Freo’s Lachie Neale to have at least 35 touches ($2.15 with Sportsbet). He has done that in four of the past five weeks.

Get on Matthew Pavlich to Kick 3 or More Goals and Fremantle Win the Match at $4! See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions

Brisbane took the best part of the first half to kick a goal as they were drubbed at home by Collingwood 10.5 (66) to 20.23 (143) – an incredible 43 scoring shots on 15. This week, the Lions head to the home of football to clash with a Demons side on the rebound after their defeat to the Bulldogs at the weekend. Suspended defender Neville Jetta will be missing for Melbourne but we are still backing them to lead at the end of every quarter ($1.81 with Sportsbet). The Lions have conceded monster totals of 143 and 136 points in the past two weeks, so we are taking Sportsbet up on their $2.25 for the Demons to score at least 121 this Sunday.

Don't miss out on the boosted odds of $3 for Jesse Hogan to Kick 4 or More Goals and Melbourne Win the Match! See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

Greater Western Sydney Giants v Western Bulldogs 

We will stop short of calling this a blockbuster because, in reality, this massive contest is unlikely to draw a big crowd in Sydney’s west. But what a game this will be. The Bulldogs will be without Matthew Boyd and Jack Redpath, who were both offered bans by the Match Review Panel for indiscretions during their side’s victory over Melbourne in round eight. The Giants embarrassed fellow expansion club Gold Coast at the weekend and we think they will extend their five-match winning streak at the Bulldogs' expense. Go for a GWS/GWS half-time/full-time double ($1.82 with Unibet) and the first scoring play to be a Giants goal ($3.20 with bet365).

Get on Dylan Shiel to have 30 or more Disposals & GWS win the match at the boosted odds of $3. See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

St Kilda Saints v Essendon Bombers

Essendon got a standing ovation from their fans, despite losing to North Melbourne by 14 points in round eight. It's hard to see the Bombers getting up in Sunday's twilight clash at Docklands. You don't need to score many points to beat the Dons. Other than round two, when they kicked 80 against Melbourne, and round five, when they managed 73 against Collingwood, their highest score is just 60. With that in mind, we are going for St Kilda to win by at least 31.5 points, which is paying around $1.90 with most corporates. Centrebet will give you $3.25 if one team fails to score 60 points and, with the Dons averaging 59 this season, we think that's good value!

Don't miss out on a great offer for Nick Riewoldt to Kick 4 or More Goals and St Kilda Win the Match at $2.75! See here for details. T&Cs Apply.

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