Brisbane v Hawthorn
Look away Brisbane fans… Your team has conceded the more goals than any other team this season, and you’re up against the reigning champions. Brisbane have serious issues in their defence, the stats don’t lie, but anyone who has watched them will tell you they look a shambles at the back.
This game is exactly what the Hawks needed after the low scoring affair against the Swans last Friday, they struggled to kick majors at the MCG but their forwards have a massive chance to regain their confidence at the Gabba. I wouldn’t read too much into Hawthorn’s position on the ladder, they’ve had a pretty stiff draw to date, but should benefit from a few easier fixtures in coming weeks.
The main reason for Hawthorns poor effort on Friday Night Footy was due to Mitchell not turning up, the midfield gun drifted to $15 for the Brownlow after that performance. Expect him to be up for this one, if you’re going to back him for the major honour, now is the time.
You simply can’t back against the Hawks today, the Lions lack quality at either end of the ground. Unfortunately for my old boys, I’m backing Hawthorn to win by 40+ at $1.67. I’ve already mentioned Sam Mitchell, I’m a huge fan of this boy, he’ll bounce back in style and will ease his way to 30+ disposals at $1.65.
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
This is a huge game for both clubs, whoever takes the points home may end up claiming a top eight spot come the end of the year. Both these teams have surprised me this season, and for different reasons. The majority or pundits expected Melbourne to put in a better display than last year, but they didn’t predict a 5-4 win-loss record after Round nine. Port on the other hand have been disappointing, it’s not just their poor win-loss record, they’ve been awful to watch on numerous occasions.
For Port to have any success today they need vintage performances from their key players, Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard. However, I think Melbourne are on a role, they come into the game full of confidence and playing good football. There is serious value in their $2.18 price-tag.
Jesse Hogan is a freak, the young buck kicked five against Brisbane, making it four occasions where he’s slotted three or more, including that seven against the Saints. He’s the main in Melbourne and well worth backing to kick four or more at $2.7
St Kilda v Fremantle
I’m struggling to gather the strength to write a preview for this game, let alone watch it. This has to be one of the biggest shocks in Aussie sport in recent history, no body predicted Freo would fall from grace in this manner. Last year’s minor premiership are absolutely piss-poor this season, and that’s being polite. Yes, they’ve got injuries to key players, but that’s no excuse to be in the position they’re.
Saints had the perfect game leading into this fixture, they were far too strong for Essendon. If they produce a similar performance against this Fremantle team they’ll walk away with the points.
This game is St Kilda’s for the taking, they wont’ be $1.34 faves against Fremantle again for a long while. It would take a mad man to back the Dockers with their injuries and form. Get on the Saints to win another.
Jack Steven has been one of the Saints stand out players this season, he had a game to remember last round when he hit 40 disposals. The St Kilda midfielders has had over 30 in four games already this year, he’s a good bet to have the most in this one at $5.
Essendon v Richmond
Richmond are starting to comeback into form, but this is exactly the time they let their fans down with a shocking performance. However, that simple won’t happen against this Bombers team. Last week showed how far off the pace these guys are this season, understandably so as well.
The Bombers have showed signs at times this season, but they struggle to put this together for four quarters. Richmond on the other hand, went on that shocking losing run but seem to have turned the corner. I don’t think anyone will be tipping an Essendon win today, therefore I won’t waste your time telling you why to get on the Tigers, just do so, jump on them to win by 40+ at $2.1
I tipped Martin to win the Brownlow this season, so far he’s let me down. He’s had a few great individual performances, but as a whole he’s been let down by his team members. Now they’re back to almost full strength, he should get a little more help. Back him to have a day out and have over 30 disposals, and kick three at a massive $27.
Adelaide v GWS
You literally can’t split this pair, the money coming in for Adelaide has put both teams at $1.92 with one bookmaker. However you can still get on Adelaide at $2 with William Hill, but I’d avoid doing so. Greater Western Sydeny are sitting pretty in 3rd place on the ladder, a position I didn’t expect them to occupy at any stage this season. I said it last week, but I’ll say it again, now Cameron is firing there are a serious, serious outfit.
Pyke’s team have only lost one game this season in front of their fans, and this was against Geelong, no shame there. But away from home, they’re a bit of an unknown, winning two from four, the last victory coming against Fremantle. The home side are a taller outfit, but I think GWS will win this one because of their running game. I am worried by the guns in the Crows forward line, but still I’m jumping on the Giants to win at $1.92.
Normally I’d say $1.79 for a player to kick four in such an even contest is massive under, however on this occasion I’m pilling into it. Jeremy Cameron has made this team a genuine flag contender, he’s averaging 4.2 goals per game and another four today should be a walk in the park for him.