Hawthorn Hawks v Melbourne Demons
Which Melbourne will show up this week? The committed unit that demolished Brisbane by more than 10 goals in round nine, or the limp, tired outfit that were spanked by Port Adelaide in round 10. The Hawks took three quarters to get past Brisbane at the weekend, but we have to back them against a Dees outfit without Jack Viney (hand) at the G this Saturday. We are going for the brown and gold machine to win by at least 32 points ($2.05 with Luxbet) and both teams to score 100 points ($4.60). The Dees and Hawks have both averaged triple figures at the home of footy this season.
Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions
We are officially on the Blues bandwagon. Carlton took advantage of an out-of-sorts Geelong in round 10 to claim a stirring 19-point victory and should continue their surge up the ladder with a win against Brisbane at Docklands this Saturday. Carlton are in irresistible form right now, so we are on them to lead at the end of every quarter ($1.94 with Sportsbet). Meanwhile, the Lions have fallen away badly in the past fortnight. In round nine against Melbourne they conceded six goals in the final term, while against the Hawks in round 10 they leaked nine majors in the last quarter. Back the Blues to boot at least five goals after three-quarter time ($2.40 with Sportsbet).
Geelong Cats v Greater Western Sydney Giants
The Cats have gone from premiership favourites to pussies in the past two weeks with meek losses to Collingwood and Carlton, but it is a brave person who bets against them on their home patch. GWS are up and about at 6-3, but all their defeats have been in away games, and their 22-point loss to Adelaide on the road in round 10 highlighted how hard it is for young sides to win interstate. That’s why we are backing the Cats to win by at least 11 points at their Kardinia Park fortress, paying $2.05 with Luxbet. We are also on in-form Giant Heath Shaw to have at least 30 touches ($3.30 with Sportsbet).
Gold Coast Suns v Sydney Swans
Another week, another big loss for the Suns, who were pantsed in Perth by West Coast in round 10. Despite being at home, it is going to be really tough going for Gold Coast against Sydney this Saturday night. The Swans flexed their muscles by toppling the unbeaten Kangaroos last start and will be too good for the injury-ravaged Suns this weekend. We’re backing Sydney to win by at least 45 points ($1.92 with Luxbet). The Suns have conceded an average of 151 points in the past five weeks, so jump on Sydney to score at least 121 this week which is paying a juicy $6 with Sportsbet. Giddy-up!
Fremantle Dockers v Essendon Bombers
One of these two teams will be a lot closer to the wooden spoon after this clash at Subi on Saturday night. This game will be whatever the opposite of a "clash of the titans" is as the winless Dockers host Essendon, who have tasted victory only once this season. Freo showed a bit when they almost knocked off St Kilda in round 10 and were in front at three-quarter time, but conceded the last nine goals. We think they will break their duck this weekend. Back Fremantle to lead at the end of every quarter, which is paying $1.88 with Sportsbet, and Dockers ball-magnet Lachie Neale to help himself to at least 35 possessions ($2.35 with Sportsbet).
Collingwood Magpies v Port Adelaide Power
Collingwood have proved a point in the past three weeks with some gutsy performances, and although they were overrun by the Bulldogs in round 10, they fought it out well and finished the game with no fit players on the bench. Darcy Moore (shoulder), Taylor Adams (hamstring/knee) and Alex Fasolo (shoulder) will all miss for the Pies this Sunday, opening the door for Port to get up at the home of footy. The Power got away from Melbourne in round 10 to notch a percentage-boosting 45-point win and we are backing them to beat Collingwood, which is paying around $2 with most corporates, but big Magpie Mason Cox to slot the first major ($9 with Sportsbet).
Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles
They might have broken their interstate drought in round nine against Port Adelaide, but the Western Bulldogs on their home patch will really test West Coast’s road credentials this weekend. If the Eagles are not flat-track bullies they need to prove it by taking it up to a flag contender away from home. We don’t think they can. The hard surface at Docklands suits the Bulldogs' running game, and they will be too good for the Eagles, who have already lost to Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney away this season. Go for a Doggies/Doggies half-time/full-time double ($2.25 with Sportsbet) and the first scoring play to be a goal to the home side ($3.40 with bet365).
Adelaide Crows v St Kilda Saints
Aside from their big win over Gold Coast, which we all expected, the Crows have been a tipster's nightmare in the past month so we are breathing a sigh of relief at what looks to be a straightforward match-up at Adelaide Oval on Sunday. Aside from their round-eight loss to Geelong, Adelaide have been a force at home this season and should overwhelm the Saints, who got a nasty scare from the winless Dockers last time out. Eddie Betts has been turning it on this season, so back him to slot the first snagger at a ground he loves ($8 with Sportsbet) and Adelaide to score first and win ($1.94 with Unibet).