Hawthorn v Melbourne
Hawthorn’s form continues to be suspect at best, they’re damaging punters around the nation each week. They’ve got the job done against lesser teams in the last few weeks, beating Richmond, Fremantle and Brissie, but only winning by an average of 45 points. However, they’ve recently suffered losses to both GWS and Sydney.
Similarly, Melbourne have been the definition of inconsistent this year, highlighted by three wins in their last six but none on the bounce. Two hit-or-miss teams, makes this a bit of lottery. That said, Hawthorn should have too much for the Demons, but I wouldn’t price them up as short as $1.19.
Hawks will get the job done, get on them to be winning at half time and then at full time at $1.45 with one bookmaker.
Sam Mitchell is a freak, he’s been a little off in recent weeks, which has shown by his Brownlow odds blowing out. He’s not had over 30 disposals since Round five, but is still averaging 29.8 a game. Expect the gun midfielder to bounce back into form, he’s good value at $2.2 to have 30.
Carlton v Brisbane
How about those Blues! Another win today for my boys and people will have to take our top eight challenge serious. Carlton have somehow won five out of their last six, five more than most pundits backed them to win all year. The injury room continues to fill at the Blues, but nothing is slowing them down.
Brisbane have just won one game all season, losing their last six. They’ve had their moments though, and should have got closer to the Hawks. The Lions could be dangerous today, their key players Robinson and Bell are up against their old team, which will add a little to their performance.
Bolton has to be coach of the season, his team have got a decent record at the Etihad, and I’m backing the Blues to win today. Given Brisbane’s defence, or lack of it, jump on Carlton to win by 21+ at $1.65.
Patrick Cripps has been one of many reasons for Carlton’s success this year. He’s not had under 28 disposals since Round four, against this outfit he’s a sure fire thing to have 30+ at $2. Double that price into Mitchell having 30+ and we’re laughing!
Geelong v GWS
What’s going on with Geelong? They seemed to have the minor wrapped up after winning six on the bounce including strong victories against West Coast and Adelaide, and then they lose to Collingwood and Carlton. Absolutely p**s-poor!
Despite losing to the Crows, the Giants remain amongst the faves for the Flag. This could be the game of the round, both teams are sitting on seven wins from their 10 games. The battle between the Giants young three Scully, Conigllo and Shiel, and Geelong’s gun pairing Dangerfield and Selwood could be one for the archives.
The Giants defence looks pretty flakey, they’ve been torn apart from injuries, which showed as they shipped 15 majors against Adelaide. I’m backing the Cats to bounce back and win at $1.47, my only worry is Cameron can win a game almost on his own.
I’ve already mentioned Giants poor defence, this is why I’m getting on Tomahawk to kick four or more at $3.6
Gold Coast v Sydney
Even though the Suns are fielding their best team in week, they’ll be no match-up for Sydney. The Swans midfield is on fire, Kennedy, Hannebery and Parker are playing unbelievable footy.
The Suns have lost by an average of 70 points in their last seven games and run into Buddy Franklin who’s back to his best. I don’t know how anyone can tip anything other than a huge win for Sydney. It would take Ablett to play the best game of his life for Gold Coast to have any chance.
Swans will win, and win well. I’m on them to win by 40+ at a rather surprising $1.97. Buddy Franklin will dine out on the Gold Coast, well worth smashing him to kick 4+ at $2.55 or even 6+ at $9.
Fremantle v Essendon
Stop the press! Fremantle could finally get a win!
I’ve taken the p**s out of a few games this season, but this really is a shocker. They’ve combined for one win this season, if you’ve not got any plans for Saturday night, make some now to avoid this horror show.
Ross Lyon’s Fremantle were shocking against St Kilda in the opening quarter, they’ll need to make a much better start against the Bombers this weekend. Even though the Dockers haven’t got a win this season, they can take something from pushing Hawks and GWS all the way.
The Bombers were outplayed by the Tigers last week, and were beaten with ease by the Saints a week earlier. Essendon rank well for disposals but they can’t convert this into chances.
I’m getting on Fremantle at the line (-25.5 @ 1.96), I just can’t see this form continuing even though they’re lacking key men.
Like most dire games I’m going to give you something punchy to chase, get on ball-magnet Lachie Neale to have 40+ disposals at $6.4.