Collingwood Magpies v Fremantle Dockers
Can Fremantle take their resurgence all the way to the home of footy this Friday night? After losing their first 10 matches this season, the Dockers have now won their past three. Their 17-point victory over finals contender Port Adelaide at the weekend was a big step forward, but it was at home, and facing the Magpies – who should be well rested after the bye – is a different assignment. Despite the Dockers hot streak, we think Collingwood will be too good on Friday night. Back the Pies to win, which is paying $1.80 with the corporates, but Freo veteran Michael Barlow to have at least 30 touches ($2.20 with Sportsbet). He had 43 against Port.
Richmond Tigers v Brisbane Lions
The Tigers are at home and should notch win number six this Saturday arvo at the G. They have won four of their past five, and while the way they were taken apart by North Melbourne in round 11 shows they are a long way off the AFL’s best clubs, Richmond should give the Lions a pull through. We are backing the Tigers to win by the line of at least 40 points ($1.92 with Sportsbet). Brissy have leaked an average of 126 points per game this season and have let the opposition score more than 120 in six of their past seven games. So get on Sportsbet’s $2.15 for the Tigers to score 121 or more.
Greater Western Sydney Giants v Carlton Blues
Memo to punters: GWS have made their Showground home a fortress this season. The Giants are unbeaten in their four outings at the venue in 2016 and have picked up the big scalps of Hawthorn and Sydney there. It’s a daunting assignment for the Bluebaggers this Saturday night, who had their mid-season resurgence cut down after a 32-point loss to St Kilda in their last match. Carlton will be without Dennis Armfield (groin), who went down against the Saints. We are backing the Giants to win by at least 45 points ($1.95 with Luxbet) and the first scoring play to be a GWS goal ($2.90 with Unibet).
St Kilda Saints v Geelong Cats
The Saints have pulled some results out of their you-know-where this season and we didn’t see their comfortable victory over Carlton coming. Saturday night’s clash at Docklands against Geelong is a much tougher assignment though. Midfielder Josh Caddy, who injured his knee in round 13, will not pull on the famous blue and white hoops this weekend in a blow for the visitors. The Saints forward line will be boosted by the return of No.1 draft picks Nick Riewoldt (knee) and Paddy McCartin (concussion), but it’s not going to be enough. Back the Cats to score first and win ($1.86 with Unibet) and Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield to have at least 35 touches ($2.80 with Sportsbet). He’s averaging more than 31 this year.
Hawthorn Hawks v Gold Coast Suns
Bad news Gold Coast – your nine-match losing streak is about to become 10. The Suns have an unenviable trip down to Launceston this week to play the Hawks at their home away from home and the stats are ugly. Hawthorn have won 39 of their 50 games at York Park and have had two victories there already this year. Adam Saad (hamstring) is back for the Suns but it won’t matter. We’re on the Hawks to win by at least 55 points, which is paying around $1.90 with the corporates. On their losing streak, the Suns have scored an average of just 70 points per game, if they fall short of that mark this week, Centrebet will give you $1.76.