Sydney Swans v Carlton
The Swans went down in an absolute thriller last weekend, they’re wounded and dangerous. Unfortunately they take on my boys today, and it could be one way footy in Sydney.
Hawthorn only just got the better of Sydney at the SCG, in a game they probably should’ve won. This weeks clash will be a lot easier for them, and will give them a huge chance of taking a step closer to securing a top four finish. The Swans will be far too much for Carlton in the middle. Hannebery, Mitchell, Parker and Kennedy against Cripps is a little unfair. The Blues also lack firepower up front, they’ve got players who will be deadly in the future but they’re still learning their trade.
Carlton didn’t embarrass themselves last time out against the Eagles, they went into the game playing pretty poor football but impressed many, especially in the last quarter. However I’m giving them no chance this round.
My first tip tonight is for one of Sydney’s stellar midfielders, with so many guns against a one-man midfield, I expect the Swans to see plenty of the ball. Daniel Hannebery is well worth backing having 35+ disposals at $3.1. As you’ve gathered, I’m backing the Swans to win, jump on Sydney 40+ at $1.62.
Gold Coast v Fremantle
The battle of the injury lists, with two fully fit squads this could be a humdinger, but I can’t help but lose interest today. Neither team has anything other than pride to play for, and are both missing the their gun midfielders.
Moving away from who’s not playing to who is playing, this could be a really tight affair. There isn’t much splitting these two on paper, and the Suns only head into the game as fave due to home-advantage. Both teams went down last round, the Dockers respectably lost by 17 to Geelong, whereas the Suns lost by 48 to Western Bulldogs.
With so many players on the Freo injury list, I’m unsure where their points are going to come from, this can be said for the Queensland team but they’ve still got Tom Lynch. This is why I’m backing the Suns just to edge Saturday’s game, my punt is the Suns to win by 1-24 at $3.5.
Touk Miller might not be the first person who comes into your head when you think Gold Coast Suns, but with players missing he’ll need to step up to the plate. He’s showed improvements in the last couple of weeks, and has already registered 30+ disposals once this season. The $5 on offer for him to have 30 more looks decent value.
West Coast v Melbourne
Melbourne improved dramatically this season, but sorry to say it, they’ve got no chance of winning away in Perth.
West Coast have shown on numerous occasions they’re a different beast when playing at home, this was highlighted last round as they fell over the line away to Carlton. The Demons come off a disappointing loss at the hands of St Kilda, a team you’d now expect them to beat. Melbourne have had a torrid time travelling to the West Coast, losing their past eight by an average of points of 61 points.
Melbourne’s defence will be tested by Kennedy, and Darling will be scratching for a goal after booting five behinds last time out. West Coast Eagles will win, and win easily, get on them at $2.08 to win by 40+.
Matt Priddis at $7 to have the most disposals is the stand out bet, the blokes a gun. Even though the West Coast midfielders has dropped out of form in recent weeks, he’s got the potential of dominating a fixture, just like he did in Round One, when he had 43 disposals. It’s a bit of a risk this bet, but you must admit, it is overs.
Geelong v Adelaide
Danger, Danger, Danger, the gun faces his old club after producing the goods for me last weekend when he landed a huge $11 tip. The boy was on-fire against the Dockers last time out, and pretty much has the Brownlow round his neck.
This will be a huge game for him, he comes off one of his best every performances, and now welcomes his old club to his new home. Dangerfield aside, this should be a ripping game, two high quality outfits.
Adelaide are up and about after landing eight wins on the bounce, whilst Geelong have been very inconsistent in recent weeks, losing four of their last eight. With their forwards, it’s no surprise that the Crows have amassed the most points in the league this season. Geelong have a task on their hands to keep Jenkins, Betts and Walker quiet. There should be a ding-dong battle in the midfield, there’s no argument Selwood and Dangerfield are better on paper, but Thompson, Laird and Crouch are playing ome of their best every footy.
Even though I’m slightly edging towards Adelaide, this looks far too close to call. My bet is both teams to score over 80 points at a generous $1.92. After his performance last week and playing his old club, the $2.1 on offer for Dangerfield to score two or more has to be snapped up.
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Bulldogs were too strong for the Saints earlier on in the year but will severely miss Jake Stringer this weekend. St Kilda have won their last six at the Etihad, and are a decent chance of causing an upset.
The Saints shouldn’t be scared of the Dogs, especially without Stringer. They’re more than a match for them in the midfield, with Steven, Ross and Montagna all playing good footy. A win for St Kilda would keep alive their slim chances of burgling a finals spot, whereas the Dogs could cement a top four finish.
I’ve got into St Kilda on many of occasions this season, but today I’m all over them causing an upset. Stringer is so vital to this Dogs outfit, he’s kicked 34 this season and their next best is Redpath at 19. At $3.55 it’s hard not to have a little sniff at the Saints. My other tip has come from purely looking at Oddschecker’s odds grid, Nick Riewoldt is a HUGE $15 to kick the first with one bookie, compared to $9 with another bookie. Now that’s value!
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Oddschecker wouldn’t let me leave out this game, it looks a dire game. Essendon have lost 15 in a row and Brisbane haven’t won since round four. Shoot me now….
The Lions defence has been woeful lately, they’ve shipped an average of 136 points a game, which is quite flattering as they kept low scores against some of the lessor teams. Essendon have been terrible but will be annoyed they’ve not got a winner in their last four games, they looked good against GWS, St Kilda and Richmond.
Brisbane have yet to win interstate, this won’t change this weekend, Essendon will win pretty comfortably. Take the $2.4 on offer for them to lead at the end of every quarter. Finally James Kelly to have 30+ disposals screams value. Quickly moving on…
Hawthorn v Richmond
Can anyone else smell an upset?
Hawthorn just got over the line in a thriller in Sydney, they’re sitting top of the ladder and look a great bet to win the flag again. That said, Richmond are one team who could cause them a few troubles. The Tigers have a decent record against Hawthorn, and their man Dustin Martin is on fire!
Richmond limped over the line against Essendon, mainly thanks to Martin and Griffiths. Even though they come into this match in pretty average form, the $6 on offer for them to spring a surprise is too tempting to turn down. Richmond’s defence will need to be in top form to deal with Rioli and co.
Get on the $6, and also back Jack Riewoldt to kick four or more, they’ll need a huge game from him if they’re to get close.
Port Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney
If Port want to still be playing footy in September they need to start beating their rivals, which means a win this Sunday against the Giants.
Port are finding their feet in the back-end of the season, they lost admirable to the Hawks and recorded good wins over the Tigers and North. The Giants form flatters them a little, they’ve won four of their last five, beating Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney and Essendon, whilst losing to the Pies.
GWS have been pretty impressive on the road, and Port have been the definition of inconsistent. Personally I think Port have the more well-rounded team, but lack stars, where the Giants have a few match winners. Once again I’m jumping on another upset, get on Port at $2.2. Robbie Gray to have 30+ disposals looks a good bet, get on him at $2.