GWS v Richmond
GWS have never beaten Richmond, yet the Tigers are $9? I’ll have a slice of that!
The Tigers may come off the back of a bit of a hiding from the Hawks, but still offer quality value to get your Saturday going. The Giants had to come from behind against Port last weekend, and can take another step closer to securing home finals if they beat Richmond. However, how can you overlook a team who’ve got Martin and Cotching in vintage form. The Tigers can dominate the midfield this weekend, and have a great chance of winning the clash if their forwards turn-up. If they can keep Cameron and Johnson quiet in front of the posts, then it will be interesting to see how the young Giants handle the pressure.
Get on the Tigers at a massive $9, also expect another massive game from Martin, $2.5 for him to have the most disposals in the game looks pretty easy money.
Hawthorn v Carlton
Hawthorn just won’t lose. I love the Blues but I’m sorry to say they’ve got no chance this weekend.
It’s been 11 years now since Carlton beat Hawthorn, on that day Jarrad Waite kicked five goals. Luke Hodge starred for the Hawks, whilst Sam Mitchell had quite a quiet day. However this won’t be the case today, Hodge and Mitchell will dominate a fairly young looking Blues midfield. That said, the real difference between these two teams is the fire-power up front. Rioli, Gunston and Breust are on-fire at the moment, they’ll be in for a field day against the Blues defence.
No value in the win market, the $1.2 for Hawthorn to be winning at half-time and full-time will appeal to the big punters, but I’m going to get on Hawks by 40+ at $1.57. I’ve already mentioned Mitchell, he should have a pretty easy game, get on him to have the most disposals at $2.75.
Collingwood v West Coast
Once again I’m tipping another upset, West Coasts form on the road is just too dodgy for a $1.6 shot.
West Coast have won once in Victoria this year, that was against Carlton. Added to that their main man Josh Kennedy goes missing at the MCG, he’s kicked just two goals in his last three appearances there. The Pies are the definition of inconsistent but when they do turn up they’re a match for most teams this season.
Get on Collingwood to win at $2.35. Scott Pendlebury had a solid game last week, and continued his recent run of form. He’s had 30+ disposals in three of his last four games, get on him to have 30+ this week at $1.67.
North Melbourne v St Kilda
North Melbourne can all but end St Kilda’s final chances if they get up Saturday night. St Kilda have put a string of results together that have given them a sniff of crashing the party. North on the otherhand really need a win as they enter a very difficult run of fixtures after this weekend.
North Melbourne were impressive last week when they defeated Collingwood, but they’re vulnerable as they lost the previous five before playing the Pies. The Saints shocked the Bulldogs last weekend, and made it seven in a row at the Etihad.
The football the Saints are playing at the moment, makes it impossible to rule them out, however I still think North are a better team. Therefore I’m backing Saints +10.5 at $1.95. Bruce will be key, he’s well worth backing at $3.1 to kick 3+.
Melbourne v Gold Coast
The lack of talent in the Gold Coast midfield make them impossible to back against Melbourne. The Demons have won five from nine at home and they’ll add to that with ease on Sunday.
Even though the Suns are superior up top, Melbourne will dominate the midfield. Jones, Viney and Vince are all having stand out season, and should find it easy going against an injury hit team. The Suns fans will want the season to end ASAP, back more misery for them, Melbourne to win by 25+ at $1.53 is the best.
Jack Watts was scoreless last weekend, but is having a decent season, he’s my pick to score 4+ on Sunday at $4.5.
Adelaide v Essendon
Save the easiest until the end. I really don’t have to write a lot for this one, as everyone knows the Crows will smash the Bombers. The only questions is by how many.
Adelaide have one of the best forward lines in the competition, and they play one of the weakest defences in the comp. With places still to play for expect the Crows to be ruthless, Adelaide to win by 60+ at $1.6 looks the bet.
Tom Lynch at $51 to kick 6+???? I’ll be having some of that. Make this your long shot of the weekend.
Fremantle v Sydney Swans
Sydney almost slipped up against Carlton last week, they won’t be making the same sloppy mistakes twice. Freo have improved lately but their season was already over after injuries struck.
Pav will play his 350th game, but unfortunately it will be ruined for him by the result. The Swans will be pretty confident of landing a top four place as they’ve got fairly easy games heading towards finals.
Without Fyfe the Swans will dominate the midfield. Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery have been outstanding this season, and will dominated Lachie Neale and co. Buddy was the only shining light in last weeks narrow win, he sits behind Kennedy in the Coleman ranking, something he’ll be desperate to change.
Get on the Swans to be leading at the end of every quarter at $1.72. Luke Parker looks a good price at $2.4 to have 30+ disposals.