Western Bulldogs v Collingwood Magpies
The Bulldogs need to win this game to keep their slim top-four hopes alive, and we reckon they will. Defender Matt Suckling (Achilles) should return to bolster the boys from the west in Friday night's clash against the Magpies at Docklands. Collingwood are not in great form, and last weekend's 15-point loss to Richmond has put the blowtorch on coach Nathan Buckley. On form, it's impossible to overlook the Bullies in this one. Last time they met, in round 10, the Dogs claimed a 21-point win and we reckon they'll do it by at least that margin again ($2.05 with Luxbet). We are also on Luke Dahlhaus to have at least 30 touches ($2.70 with Sportsbet). He had 37 in their previous meeting with the Pies.
Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues
The end of this season cannot come fast enough for Brisbane, who continued to stink it up with their massive loss to Adelaide in round 20. The Lions conceded an incredible 177 points in that defeat. This Saturday arvo, they come up against a Blues line-up on an eight-match losing streak, but that will be little comfort at the Gabba where Carlton are hot favourites. We are going for the Blues to win by five goals, which is paying $2.60 with Luxbet, and the first score of the game to be a Carlton goal ($3.25 with bet365). The Lions have the worst defence in the league.
Hawthorn Hawks v North Melbourne Kangaroos
Hawthorn's nine-match winning streak was snapped last weekend and that defeat raised the stakes for Saturday afternoon's showdown against North at the 'G. The Hawks had been two games clear on top of the ladder but their shock loss to Melbourne has other teams circling. The Hawks have the sixth-best percentage in the league, and could fall as low as fifth with another defeat. Young Hawthorn forward James Sicily will miss the match through suspension. We are expecting the brown and gold machine to bounce back in this one and our money is on them to score first and win ($2.23 with Unibet) and the final margin to be between 1-24 points ($3.30 with Sportsbet).
Greater Western Sydney Giants v West Coast Eagles
GWS can take a massive leap towards a double chance in September when they host the Eagles this Saturday night in an eight-point game. The fourth-placed Giants have 14 wins and the Eagles, who are sixth, have 13, meaning this game will shape the eight. West Coast were buoyed by the return of ruckman Nic Naitanui (Achilles), who played his first game in two months in last week's derby win. He will continue to improve, but going over and upsetting GWS on their home patch is a big ask this weekend. We reckon the Giants will be too good, and are backing them to win by at least five goals ($2.15 with Luxbet) but West Coast's Josh Kennedy to kick the first snagger. He booted seven last week.
Port Adelaide Power v Melbourne Demons
These two clubs could not have had more different results last weekend. The Dees were white hot in their stunning victory over Hawthorn, while Port were incredibly disappointing in their 77-point flogging at the hands of Sydney. Jesse Hogan (knee) will return for the Dees, and that's important given he booted 3.4 and clunked 11 marks when these two sides met earlier this year in Alice Springs. Melbourne are gunning for their third straight win and there's probably no one alive today who has seen them do that before. We think the Dees are up and about and will roll the Power at Adelaide Oval this weekend. Get on Melbourne to win, which is paying $2.80 with most bookies, and Melbourne on-baller Jack Viney, who had leather-poisoning with 39 touches last week, to get at least 30 this Saturday ($2.50 with Spotsbet).
St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans
This is when the laughter stops for St Kilda. The resurgent Saints have been one of the most exciting sides to watch in the past couple of months as they've put themselves in to be a silly chance for the finals with some exciting footy. But they're two games outside the eight, and when they lose to Sydney this Saturday night, the fat lady will be in full voice. This time of year is when sides like the Bloods do their best work and the fact this clash is at the Dome - a ground the Saints play well - won't matter. Put your hard earned on Sydney to score first and win ($2 with Unibet) and neither side to make it to 25 points in the first quarter ($2.50 with bet365).
Essendon Bombers v Gold Coast Suns
In the past fortnight, the Suns have looked about as good as you can look without actually winning. Their two-point loss to Melbourne in round 19 was courageous, and they also showed plenty in a six-point defeat to GWS last week. Now, the Suns get a chance to dine out on the Dons and Sunday arvo's clash at Docklands could get ugly. It's hard to get value in Essendon games this season, but there is a bit floating around in this one. If Gold Coast win by at least 40 points, Luxbet are offering $3 and we think that is irresistible. On average, the Bombers concede 111 points per game, so we are also on the Suns to kick between 106-120 inclusive ($4 with Sportsbet).
Fremantle Dockers v Adelaide Crows
Adelaide have been putting bad teams away this season, and Sunday's trip to Subi could be a very one-sided affair. Last week, the Crows put 177 points on Brisbane and although the Dockers are not quite that bad, expect them to get the job done comfortably in round 21.
In round 19, Adelaide beat Essendon by 82 points, and in round 20, they thrashed the Lions by 138. Both those clashes were at home, but we reckon on that form, they are heading towards another big win against the 16th placed Dockers. We like Adelaide to win by at least 10 goals, which is paying $3.45 with Luxbet, while Sportsbet are offering $2.50 if the Crows score at least 121 points and we reckon that's great value.
Richmond Tigers v Geelong Cats
Richmond are a tipster’s nightmare this season, but there is no way they can beat the Cats this weekend. There is just too much riding on this clash for fifth-placed Geelong to slip up. The Cats are equal second on 14 wins, but need to keep winning if they are to break into the top four. Richmond, meanwhile, pulled one out of their Tijuana when they beat Collingwood last week. They won't do it again. Go for Geelong to win by at least 37 points ($2.05 with Luxbet) and the second quarter to be the highest scoring term of the match ($3.60 with Sportsbet). Between them, these two sides have won 21 of their 38 second quarters this season.