Geelong v Melbourne
Odds suggest the Cats should cruise through the opening game on Saturday, even though I think they’ll win pretty comfortably, they look very short at $1.19. There’s no value in that, however I will be taking Geelong to win every quarter at $1.62. The main reason for this is, Melbourne have nothing but pride to play for whereas the Cats are chasing a top four spot.
The Demons were disappointing going down to the Blues last week by 20 points, where as Geelong had a percentage booster by smashing Brisbane by 60 points. Home ground advantage seems to be the story of the season for many clubs, and Geelong are no different. The Cats have won six from seven at the venue this season. That said, Melbourne have fond memories of the Simonds Stadium, a ground they won at in 2015.
Dangerfield will be looking to sign of the regular season in style. The ex Adelaide player has had a year to remember at his new club. He’s had over 30 disposals twelve times this season and over 40 twice including that 48! He’s my tip to have 35+ at a handsome $2.8.
Essendon v Carlton
Even though they’re $1.36 surely the Blues are overs, Essendon stink. Essendon will be over the moon to finish the year, they sit bottom of the ladder after a season they’ll want to forget for all sorts of reasons.
Essendon have only won two games this season, whereas the Blues have notched up seven. Carlton are coming off the back of an impressive win against Melbourne last time out, where as Essendon went down to Western Bulldogs.
I expect this to be a real scrap but expect Cripps and Gibbs to stand out, the Blues have a lot better individuals on paper, they’ll win, get on the $1.36. I’ve mentioned Cripps, he’s had a ripping year, he’s averaged just under 27 disposals, and he’s kicked over 30 in four of his last five games. Get on him to have 30+ more today at $2.2.
Sydney Swans v Richmond
You won’t be shocked to find out I’m tipping the Swans this weekend, they’ve got a pretty straight forward game against Richmond. Sydney head into the game in brilliant form, their won their last five by an average of 48 points. Plus they’ve got the home advantage, they’ve won eight of ten when playing at the SCG this season.
The Tigers were pretty shocking last week, they went down to St Kilda, making countless errors. They may have defeated the Swans last time these two met, but if they are to repeat that they need to drastically turn-around their recent form. Richmond have relied far too heavily on Martin this season, however he’ll find it tough going against three of the best midfielders in the comp.
Get on the Swans to cruise to victory and claim the minor premiership, 60+ at $2.2 looks the only value bet. Buddy might be out of the Coleman (unless he has a day to remember), however I still expect him to find it pretty easy against this Tigers defence, get on him to kick 4+ at $1.45.
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
Both of these teams have been very disappointing this season, Gold Coast have injury to blame, whereas Port have been far too reliable on a couple of stars. Port Adelaide head into the game as clear favourites, even though I think they deserve to go into the match as faves, they’re far too short given their form and consistency.
The only reason why Gold Coast have been competitive in some games is because of Tom lynch, he might be out of the Coleman now but he’s still had a vintage season. Suns need to get plenty of supply to the big man to stand a chance, but I worry they might get dominated by Wines, Boak and Gray in the middle.
Mainly due to the Lynch threat I’m going to get on the Suns +18.5, expect this to be a tight scrappy game. Sorry to mention him again, but Tom Lynch is worth backing at $2.5 to kick four or more today.
North Melbourne v GWS
After a huge week off the field, I expect there to be misery on the pitch this weekend. North were the early season pace setters but the wheels well and truly came off as they’ve only won three of their last twelve games. Shocking form!
A few of the North legends know they’ll be lining up in their second to last game (depending on their finals run). They’ll be disappointed by this but will still want to sign off in style. However given the run they’re in and the antics this week, I just can’t see how this will happen. Mathematically GWS can still finish top, somehow, however the young side are more likely to finish 5th.
GWS will win this game up front, they’ve got class where it counts with Cameron, Johnson and even Patton. Get on the Sydney based team to get the job done at $1.5, and also have a go at Johnson to kick three or more at $3.25.