Hawthorn Hawks v Western Bulldogs
There has been a bit of Houdini about the Hawks in 2016 as time and time again they've found a way to escape with the points. Not against the Cats, though. Isaac Smith's after-the-siren miss last Friday night will have Hawthorn on the rebound against the Bulldogs in the same timeslot at the home of footy this week.
Bulldog Lin Jong (collarbone) will miss the clash, and despite his side's ultra-impressive domination of the Eagles in week one of the finals, we think the Hawks might have them.
The three-times reigning premiers ooze September experience, so we're backing them to win by at least 20 points ($2.30 with Luxbet) and Hawks veteran Sam Mitchell to gather the most disposals on the ground ($3.25 with bet365). He had 30 last week.
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
They were one of my top tips for the flag, but Sydney were exposed in last week's 36-point defeat to GWS and have got a massive semi-final assignment on Saturday night against the Crows. Being on the road could cost Adelaide in this one; Sydney play the SCG really well and did not have to travel in the first week of the finals.
Big Swan Kurt Tippett, who fractured his jaw against the Giants, will not run out against his former club and the forced omission will rob this contest of a bit of extra spice. It's hard to keep a good side down, and we think the Swans will show their class this weekend. Back Sydney to lead at the end of every quarter ($2.50 with Sportsbet) and the first scoring play to be a Swans goal, which is paying $3.25 with the corporates.