After a sluggish start to the season Collingwood appear to be back in town.
The Pies made a slow start to the season but have looked good in the past fortnight coming from seven goals down to defeat Hawthorn last week making it back-to-back victories with a workmanlike 45-point win over the Brisbane Lions.
Collingwood is moving the ball with much more purpose than earlier in the season and look a strong chance at winning a third straight match by causing an upset over Fremantle.
Former GWS midfielder Taylor Adams has been instrumental in the Collingwood turnaround; a fortnight ago against Hawthorn he had 33 possessions and backed that up with 33 in the win over Brisbane.
Adams has been winning the ball inside the contest and running hard to receive the handball and as a result is reliable for disposal bets.
Collingwood looked impressive beating Fremantle by 48 points in Round 14 last season; in that fixture Adam Treloar had a game high 33 touches.
Fremantle had a three-game winning streak snapped last week with an awful performance against Adelaide where they eventually lost by 100 points.
The one concern for Collingwood is the venue of Domain Stadium, a ground where Collingwood has lost five straight matches, but they will never get a better chance than here and punters won’t get many better chances to back a team to end the weekend at better than even money.
We are not sold on Fremantle and find that their ladder position of seventh is flattering and there are betting opportunities taking them on.
The Dockers place too much importance on Lachie Neale and Nat Fyfe and seem to only win games when both are exceptional, while the Pies midfield is strong and most importantly runs deep.
Collingwood is still as much $5 (Sportsbet) to make the finals and $67 to win the flag with Crownbet. Both prices will shorten in drastically after the Pies salute.
Taylor Adams has recorded 30 disposals or more in his past three games and again looks a good bet to gain 30+ ($1.40 @ Sportsbet).
COLLINGWOOD + 3.5 LINE
TAYLOR ADAMS 30+ DISPOSALS