Our first week not posting a profit! Hard luck with that Giants game but the bounce backs is on lads.
Time to get into Week 13’s best bets.
Leg 1 – North Melbourne
Usually the message is don’t overthink games, this time it’s the opposite. St Kilda has hit the skids and whilst punters were avoiding the Roos like the plague, they’ve turned things around.
St Kilda is off the back of 3 straight losses and hasn’t managed to score more than 68-point sin those contests.
North have covered 5 of their last 6 against St Kilda with margins at 23 points or greater each time.
Have you ever heard of the falling knife analogy? Don’t try and catch it because you’ll cut yourself. Let it hit the ground then pick it up. I don’t think the Saints have hit the ground yet and a play on the Roos is the go here.
Take the Kangaroos!
Leg 2 - Richmond
Richmond has always played the Swans competitively. They’ve covered the line in 4 of the last 5 between the two sides.
At the MCG Richmond also have a decent record, covering their last 3. The Swans on the other hand have an abysmal record there going 6-11 against the spread and failing to cover 6 of their last 7 as a favourite.
The Swans still haven’t found consistency yet and with Martin leading the charge, I’d want my money on the Tigers.
Get on the Tigers!
Leg 3 – Western Bulldogs-10.5
The Bulldogs are the better team in this contest. Having won 11 of the last 13 matches between the two sides and covering 4 of the last 5 adds a lot of credit to the Bulldogs in this one.
Melbourne has been abysmal at the Etihad only covering 6 of their last 15 at the ground.
The Bulldogs were embarrassed last week only scoring 42 against the Swans. They’ll be focused and gave had a whole week to stew on that poor performance.
Get on the Dogs!
Leg 1 – Kangaroos
Leg 2 – Richmond
Leg 3 – Western Bulldgs-10.5
Approximate odds: $7.68
By Nik Hatzi