Rd 6 AFL Preview & Betting Tips
The AFL season is at quarter time and the premiership race is wide open.
Western Bulldogs v Carlton Blues
A battle of the battlers to start Round 6 with the winless Carlton up against the 16th placed Western Bulldogs who have won just one match.
It seems unbelievable that the Western Bulldogs won the premiership in 2016 and they were totally dominated last week by Fremantle eventually losing by 54 points.
Carlton though has been the worst team in the competition in 2018, despite a competitive performance last week against West Coast when losing by 10 points.
As disappointing as the Bulldogs have been this season they should have too much class and hunger for Carlton who will again be without their captain Marc Murphy.
Look for the Bulldogs to have too much run though the midfield and it should give star midfielder/forward Marcus Bontempelli a chance to have a big game after he was held to just 22 touches last week against the Dockers.
While the Bulldogs are not playing with the same intensity that saw them win the flag in 2016, they are still light years ahead of Carlton and are an outstanding Head-to-Head price at $1.45 and should comfortably cover the line of 15.5 points.
Build your Round 6 multi bets with the Bulldogs.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs (win) @ $1.43*
Value Bet: Western Bulldogs 40+
Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans
Betting markets have been turned on their head for this mouth-watering contest with the news that superstar and reigning Coleman Medallist Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin is out injured.
Franklin has been instrumental in the Swans bright start to the season and his absence could easily be the difference between Sydney winning and losing.
Geelong sent a clear message to the footy world with an impressive away win against Port Adelaide last week and can move into the top four with a win.
Patrick Dangerfield, the 2016 Brownlow winner, was instrumental in the win over Port Adelaide with 28 disposals and a goal and could be the x-factor against Sydney.
While the Swans are renowned for bouncing back when they have their backs against the wall, it is simply too tough an ask to expect them to go to the fortress of Geelong without Franklin and Dan Hannebery and leave with the win.
Both these teams are genuine premiership contenders but it does look a good time to back the Cats as they should win this and if they can take care of GWS next week they will be the buzz team of the competition.
Geelong is still $8.50 with Ladbrokes and Ubet for the flag.
We are confident that the Cats will win, and they do look a good anchor for multi bets.
Best Bet: Geelong (Win) @ $1.40*
Value Bet: Patrick Dangerfield Most Disposals.
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Port Adelaide Power
North Melbourne has been the surprise packet in the early stages of the season and stunned Hawthorn last Sunday at Etihad Stadium.
The betting world clearly remains sceptical regarding the legitimacy of the Kangaroos and despite the fact they have superior form compared to their opponents they are a $2.85 betting outsider.
This is a must win game for Port Adelaide because they started the season with a bang, winning three straight, before lacklustre losses to Essendon and Geelong.
Port has struggled to hit the scoreboard the last fortnight booting just 12 goals in the game against the Bombers and seven last week against the Cats.
Expect Port to throw caution to the wind and a return to attacking football. As a result we anticipate that Port will win but one of the better betting opportunities might be to back the total game score going over 179.5. North Melbourne has also been attacking and high scoring the past fortnight with 116 against Carlton and 98 against the Hawks.
Port has a big fortnight coming up with an away trip to Perth next week to take on the Eagles before the biggest game in South Australia, the ‘Showdown’ against Adelaide.
We like the Power to win this match and if you like them for the premiership they are $11 with William Hill.
Best Bet: Total Game Score Over 180.5
Value Bet: Charlie Dixon Most Goals
Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane Lions
The Brisbane Lions are yet to win a game in 2018 and could not pick a worse time to run into renowned flat track bullies Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants blew a late three goal lead last week against St Kilda and settled with a fortuitous draw. They get the perfect opportunity here to bounce back and expect them to dominate this game and win by a big margin.
There are questions surrounding the Giants when things are not going their way, as evident by the fact that their talented list is yet to make a Grand Final, but at home and an against the Lions look at some high margin bet types.
Stephen Coniglio has emerged as an elite midfielder and a live chance for the Brownlow Medal, racking up 29 disposals last week and with his run and carry should rack them up against the Saints this week.
If you want a multi leg at short odds the Giants are a lock, and if you want to be more ambitious they should have little trouble covering the line, despite the high number of 38.5 points.
It is going to be a long season for the Lions and the boys from Sunshine State are in for a long afternoon.
Best Bet: Greater Western Sydney -38.5 (Line) @ $1.90*
Value Bet: Stephen Coniglio Most Disposals.
Hawthorn Hawks v St Kilda Saints
University Of Tasmania Stadium
Hawthorn will be desperate to bounce back and return to the winners list after an awful first half against North Melbourne last Sunday that almost certainly cost them a win.
The Hawks will miss James Sicily who is suspended and was their leading possession winner last week against the Kangaroos with 28 touches.
St Kilda should have beaten GWS last Saturday afternoon but will take great confidence from that performance and despite the fact the Hawks have turned this venue into a fortress, they can cause an upset.
The Saints midfield showed a timely return to form last Saturday with Seb Ross collecting a game high 31 disposals and Blake Acres having 29.
The one concern for the Saints is that they still struggle to score. In five games this season the Saints have only managed totals of 107, 43, 55, 56 and 73.
The Hawks have struggled defensively, which was evident with the Kangaroos slamming home seven goals in the first quarter against them last week to set up the match.
We are giving the Saints a final chance and backing them to cause the upset and at the line where they are given a 23.5 point start
Best Bet: St Kilda +22.5 (Line) @ $1.90*
Value Bet: St Kilda Under 39.5 points (Margin)
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast Suns
The Gold Coast Suns entered the season favourite in the unwanted ‘most losses’ market, previously known as the wooden spoon, however, the Suns have made a terrific start to the season winning three of their first five games including a thrilling win over crosstown rivals Brisbane last week.
Adelaide was emphatic beating Sydney at the SCG last Friday by 10 points with skipper Taylor Walker return to form booting a game a high four goals with Josh Jenkins chiming in with three.
As impressive as the Suns have been this far, they face a stiff test and we anticipate the Crows to win by a big margin, although the line of about eight goals is steep.
The Suns are yet to play a home match this season due to the Commonwealth Games and they unfortunately look set for a drop off in form on a six-day break after a stirring win.
Both Taylor Walker and Josh Jenkins should get plenty of goal scoring opportunities after they combined for seven goals last week. We suggest backing them both in the Most Goals market to lock in a profit.
Looking longer term the Crows have firmed from $10 into $8 for the flag and they do look a nice price considering their upcoming draw.
Best Bet: Adelaide 40+ (Margin) @ $1.68*
Value Bet: Taylor Walker Most Goals.
Essendon Bombers v Melbourne Demons
Melbourne and Essendon were both expected to return to the finals this year and were being touted as premiership contenders.
After five rounds they are both flirting with crisis, the Demons currently sit 14th on the ladder with the Bombers just one spot ahead of them in 13th.
Both teams are coming off bitterly disappointing performances. Melbourne was belted by 67 points against Hawthorn and they were tipped to bounce back against the reigning premiers Richmond last week and despite trailing by a goal midway through the third quarter, they lost by 46 points.
Essendon was lacklustre in the ANZAC day clash with rivals Collingwood going down by 49 points.
It is hard to tip either team with much conviction on the back of an inconsistent season but if we had to have a bet, we would lean towards Melbourne who appear over the odds.
The Bombers midfield is not playing with the same explosiveness this season and that is one area where Melbourne should be able to seize the ascendency.
If you want a roughie expect to see Christian Petracca spend more time in the midfield. He is $2.50 to get 25 or more disposals and could be a decent roughie to get the most touches in Group B.
Best Bet: Melbourne (Win) @ $1.80*
Value Bet: Christian Petracca Most Disposals Group B.
Collingwood Magpies v Richmond Tigers
Collingwood lost their first two games of the season and appeared to be in major trouble.
Since that point they have dismantled Carlton, Adelaide and Essendon and now have their eyes set on the biggest scalp in the competition, the reigning premiers and 2018 flag favourite Richmond.
The Collingwood midfield ran riot against Essendon, headed by ANZAC Day medallist Adam Treloar who racked up game high 34 disposals and slotted two goals.
The Tigers are roaring though. Richmond stunned the footy world by winning the premiership last season and have shown early in 2018 that the win was no fluke and after five rounds they are sitting pretty on top of the ladder with a 4-1 record.
Richmond destroyed Melbourne last Tuesday night and teams simply cannot match the Tigers pressure.
Last year the Tigers dominance was built around Dustin Martin and Alex Rance, surprisingly both these players have not been at their best this season and the Tigers are potentially playing even better than what we saw last year.
The other factor that has us leaning towards Richmond is that Collingwood has just four-night sleeps since their last match and that must take its toll.
Jump on the tiger train punters.
Best Bet: Richmond (Win) @ $1.48*
Value Bet: Richmond 40+ (Margin)
West Coast Eagles v Fremantle Dockers
Heading into 2018 plenty of footy experts predicted that the two Western Australian sides would potentially run the reverse quinella and finish the season the bottom two sides on the ladder.
Heading into Round 6 they have both made bright starts to the season - the Eagles are only percentage off top of the ladder with Fremantle are skinning the fringes of the top eight.
Both sides come into this game off the back of impressive victories. The Eagles, terrible travellers in recent times, overcame their fear of playing at the MCG to defeat Carlton.
Andrew Gaff was dominant in the midfield and racked up 31 disposals while evergreen forward Marc LeCras slotted three goals.
Fremantle looked sharp in beating the Western Bulldogs with Nat Fyfe back to the form that saw him win the 2015 Brownlow Medal.
Fyfe had a game high 43 disposals against the Western Bulldogs last week and as a result he has firmed into single figure odds to win the Brownlow this season.
If you want to be ambitious and back either of these sides to win the premiership you can snap up $19 on the Eagles with William Hill with Fremantle a $67 chance at Ladbrokes.
This will be a very tight game and Fremantle look a good chance at the line where they are allocated a generous 7.5 point start.
Best Bet: Fremantle +8.5 (Line) @ $1.90*
Value Bet: Draw at the end of any quarter