Rd 10 AFL Preview & Betting Tips
It could be time for a few contenders to step up or be left behind in the race to the AFL finals.
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
After two Rounds Collingwood was winless and being discussed as a potential candidate for the wooden spoon.
The Pies have since totally turned things around and enter Round 10 just outside of the top eight and being discussed as a genuine premiership contender.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have gone from bad to worse since they somehow won the premiership in 2016. Last week they kicked just two goals for the game and it is hard to see them booting a winning score against the Pies.
Rising Collingwood star Jordan De Goey kicked a game high six goals against the Saints last Saturday night and he looks to again be the main focal point up forward and looks a good bet to kick the most goals.
If you do fancy a bet on the Bulldogs back them with Ladbrokes where they pay out if your team has the most scoring shots irrespective of if they win the game or not.
Looking longer term the Pies appear to have found their mojo and they are still $21 with Crownbet to win the premiership with the Bulldogs needing to win this match to keep their season alive and already out to $251 with Ubet.
Best Bet: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.05*
Value Bet: Jordan De Goey (Most Goals)
Richmond v St Kilda
St Kilda destroyed Richmond in Round 17 last year at Etihad Stadium but since then the teams have gone in opposite directions.
Richmond won the premiership last year and is sitting pretty in second place on the ladder with St Kilda languishing in 16th placing having won just one game for the season and the pressure growing on coach Alan Richardson.
The Saints could not get the Tigers at a worse time either after they were smashed by 47 points last Sunday against West Coast in a game where the scores were level at half time.
Richmond has an excellent record over the Saints having won seven of their last nine games, four of which have been at the MCG.
Jack Riewoldt kicked five goals last week in the loss against West Coast and he looks a good chance to boot a bag against the club where his cousin played so many outstanding years.
Looking longer term this may be a great chance to back the Tigers for the flag. They should easily beat St Kida this week and then have struggling Essendon next week. The Tigers are as much as $4.33 to win the premiership and that looks appealing.
Best Bet: Richmond 40+ @ $1.68*
Value Bet: Jack Riewoldt Most Goals
Brisbane v Sydney
The Brisbane Lions were described as the best winless team in history after losing their first eight games of the season but broke that tag with a dominant 56-point win over Hawthorn last Sunday. They get the chance to claim another big scalp when they host the Sydney Swans who are yet to click into full gear so far this season.
The Swans have been riddled by inconsistency this season but still find themselves in fifth spot and should have a good patch coming up, starting with a win over Brisbane before they host Carlton and come up against St Kilda.
The Swans are currently $7 with TAB to win the flag and they could very well be favourite in a month after they beat the struggling sides.
Many footy fans reckon that Lance Franklin is lucky to avoid suspension and play in this game but as a result, we get a good betting opportunity on him kicking the most goals. Franklin has dominated the Lions when these sides met last booting eight goals in a match winning performance.
He looks a good bet to kick the most goals and a safe anchor for multi bets.
The Swans will win this game but we anticipate the Lions will be competitive so take the Swans Under 39.5.
Best Bet: Sydney 1-39 @ $2.15*
Value Bet: Lance Franklin Most Goals
Geelong v Carlton
Both these sides are coming off horrendous performances last week.
The Cats lost by 34 points to Essendon as hot favourites while Carlton were blown away by a whopping 109 points after being humiliated by Melbourne.
Geelong should bounce back heavily though returning to their fortress of Kardinia Park. Tom Hawkins was a rare shining light for the Cats last week kicking three goals and should get plenty of chances to boot a bag this week. He dominated the Blues the last time the teams met kicking a game high six goals.
Superstar Gary Ablett will spend plenty of time forward this week against the Blues and looks a good chance to kick three goals or more at $6 with bet365.
The last two times Ablett has played at Kardinia Park he has racked up some big numbers. Ablett collected 33 disposals and booted four goals, five weeks earlier bagging five goals from 26 disposals.
Geelong are obviously very short odds to win this match but they do look a risk-free leg for your multi bets and if you want to take them Over 39.5 they should comfortably cover that margin.
Looking longer term the Cats are now $12 to win the Grand Final with Crownbet.
Best Bet: Geelong 40+ @ $1.50*
Value Bet: Gary Ablett to kick 3 Goals or More
Greater Western Sydney v Essendon
A week is a long time in football.
The Bombers were under pressure following a loss to Carlton and many experts were anticipating the demise of coach John Worsfold. A week later they caused a shock by dismantling the Geelong Cats and get the chance to keep the season alive with a win over the disappointing Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants are in crisis mode following a lacklustre loss to North Melbourne that has seen them slip to 11th on the table.
Many say that if the Giants were in Victoria then coach Leon Cameron would have already been sacked and if they lose this game it will be the fourth in a row, something they have not done since their formative year in 2014.
The Giants are as soft as butter in a hot summer sun and are vulnerable at the short price. While we anticipate the Bombers can cause the upset and win the game, the better bet may be to take them at the line where they are given a 16.5 point start.
Essendon midfielders David Zaharakis (34) and Zach Merrett (33) showed a much-needed return to form against the Cats last week in the 34-point win and both look good anchor bets to gain 25 or more touches against the Giants,
Best Bet: Essendon +14.5 (Line) @ $1.95*
Value Bet: David Zaharakis Most Disposals
Hawthorn v West Coast
The high-flying Eagles are sitting pretty on top of the ladder following a dominant 47-point win over the reigning premiers Richmond.
Many were tipping the Eagles to be one of the cellar dwellers at the start of the season but are now on the second line of flag betting. They have the most dominant big man forward lined up in the competition now with both Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling in scintillating form.
These two teams met in the 2015 Grand Final and just like that game we think Hawthorn can topple the West Coast.
The Hawks are coming off consecutive losses after going down in a thriller to the Sydney Swans before being belted by the previously winless Brisbane Lions last week.
Hawthorn must win this game to stay in touch of the finals and are a good chance of causing an upset this weekend.
Ball magnet Tom Mitchell had a game high 37 disposals when these sides met last time and he again looks a good chance at gaining the most.
Looking longer term the Eagles are $6.50 to win the flag with TAB and Ladbrokes while the Hawks are $26 at TAB.
Best Bet: Hawthorn (Win) @ $2.20*
Value Bet: Tom Mitchell (Most Disposals) / Josh Kennedy (Most Goals) (Most Disposals into Most Goals)
Carlton v Melbourne
TIO Traeger Park
This will be a mouth-watering contest between the third-placed Melbourne and fourth-placed Adelaide Crows.
The Demons come into this game off the back of four straight wins and are desperate to get a big scalp to prove that they are a legitimate premiership contender.
Melbourne has had a horrible decade and after a mixed start to the season they have now found form with dominant wins over Essendon, St Kilda, Gold Coast and Carlton with the latter being by a massive 109 points.
Melbourne now has the chance to claim a big scalp and gets a vulnerable Adelaide Crows outfit missing Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane and the Crouch brothers Matt and Brad who are all ruled out through injury.
The one concern for the Demons is the venue.
Melbourne has just one win at the ground from four previous games and that came against lowly Gold Coast last season but Adelaide will be playing in Alice Springs for the first time.
Both these teams are genuine premiership contenders and if you anticipate they will get the four points here, it may be worth investing longer term as the market will react savagely to this result.
The Demons are $13 for the flag with Ladbrokes with Adelaide $8.
Best Bet: Melbourne (Win) @ $1.80*
Value Bet: Rory Laird (Most Disposals)
Fremantle v North Melbourne
Anybody who predicted that the Kangaroos would be inside the top eight after Round 9 is a genius and North Melbourne can take a big step towards making the finals with a rare win in Western Australia when they take on the Dockers,
Fremantle has been solid at home this season and can keep their finals chances alive with a win. They currently sit just a win outside of the top eight despite failing to find the form that saw them finish on top of the ladder just four seasons ago.
The shining light for the Dockers has been the return to form of 2015 Brownlow Medal winner Nat Fyfe who looks a massive chance of winning the award again this season.
Fyfe is currently the Brownlow favourite and could be set for a big game against the Kangaroos. Those wanting to cash in on his outstanding season can still snap up $4.25 on the Brownlow with Sportsbet.
This game promises to be tight and fiercely contested and we are suggesting a bet on either team winning by Under 15.5 points which also gives you the insurance of the draw.
Best Bet: Either team Under 15.5 Points
Value Bet: Draw at the end of any quarter