Rd 14 AFL Preview & Betting Tips
This will be a weekend for multi bets with plenty of short priced fancies.
West Coast v Essendon
The West Coast Eagles have had an amazing season to date and enter Round 14 having only lost to one side this season – Sydney in rounds 1 and 13.
Essendon has had a season again riddled with inconsistency. They entered the bye week with a solid 22-point win over the Brisbane Lions to keep their slim finals chances alive and enter this round in 13th spot and two wins outside of the top eight.
It is hard to see the Bombers winning this match, but if they could cause the upset they get the chance to put themselves back in the picture with matches against North Melbourne, Collingwood and Gold Coast in the next three weeks.
It is impossible to tip against West Coast at home though where they are renowned for running up the score late in games.
If the Eagles make a good start expect them to win this game comfortably and they should easily cover the line where they are giving up just a 32.5 point start and the $1.20 on them Head-to-Head looks a risk-free anchor.
Looking longer term if you anticipate the Eagles will their fourth flag since entering the competition you can now snap up $6.50 at Ubet.
Best Bet: West Coast over 15.5 points
Value Bet: West Coast Over 39.5 points (Margin).
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
The most intriguing game of the weekend is in Adelaide on Friday with two of the up-and-coming sides in the competition looking to push their claims for a top four finish in 2018.
Melbourne had a six-game winning streak halted on the Queen’s Birthday with a poor performance against Collingwood and the bye week came at a perfect time for the Demons to refresh and resume their finals charge.
Port Adelaide has been decent this season and showed enough beating reigning premiers Richmond last week but we give Melbourne a good chance at causing the upset.
Melbourne has now won the last two clashes between the sides, ending Port Adelaide's dominance of seven straight wins.
One shining light for the Demons in the 42-point defeat to Collingwood was the form of rising star midfielder Clayton Oliver who had 31 disposals.
Oliver is $5.50 with TAB to poll the most Brownlow votes for Melbourne this season which looks value and we are keen on him in the Most Disposals bet type here.
This should be a fiercely contested game but we are sticking with the Demons to cause the upset and if you want to be a tad more conservative, they are given a 10.5 point start at the line.
Looking longer term the Demons are out to $11 to win the premiership with Crownbet which is worth a bet.
Best Bet: Melbourne (Win) @ $2.35.
Value Bet: Clayton Oliver (Most Brownlow Votes)
Hawthorn v Gold Coast
University Of Tasmania Stadium
This will be ugly for the Gold Coast Suns who are quickly becoming the most irrelevant football club in the proud history of the AFL.
Last week the Suns coughed up a seven-goal lead at home against a side that had won just one game all season in a demoralising loss to St Kilda and they must now head to Tasmania to take on a Hawthorn side who have turned the venue into a fortress.
The teams have played four times at University of Tasmania Stadium with Hawthorn undefeated whereas the Gold Coast has lost nine of its past 10 and 12 of its past 15 interstate matches.
Hawthorn currently sits in 9th spot on the ladder but they have a soda of a draw coming up and as a result we should back them to return to the finals at $1.80.
The Hawks will validate their impressive win over Adelaide last week by beating Gold Coast in this match before they have GWS next week and then three easy wins against the battling Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions and Carlton.
Throw in games against Essendon in Round 20 and St Kilda in Round 22 and the Hawks will return to the finals in 2018.
Best Bet: Hawthorn Hawks Over 39.5 (Margin) @ $1.45
Value Bet: Tom Mitchell (Most Disposals)
Brisbane v Greater Western Sydney
The Brisbane Lions have been much better this year than a team who has won just one game and don’t discount them here against a Greater Western Sydney side who has failed to convert talent into success in 2018.
Brisbane has been especially competitive at the Gabba in 2018.
Although the Lions have played six games at the ground for just one win (a terrific performance over Hawthorn) they have been competitive most of the time and very good to those who have backed them to cover the line.
The Lions have lost four of the games by less than four goals and two by single figures. A similar performance here will see them cover the spread.
Greater Western Sydney has effectively saved their season in the past two weeks with an upset win over the Crows in Adelaide before dismantling a pathetic Gold Coast Suns side by 108 points.
While the Giants should win, we are happy to have something on the Lions at the line where they are given a 23.5 point start.
Looking longer term Greater Western Sydney again started the season right in the hunt for the premiership and after two wins have kept themselves somewhat relevant. If you anticipate the Giants are still a chance to win the club’s first premiership they are now paying $26 at TAB and Ubet.
Best Bet: Brisbane Lions +23.5 (Line) @ $1.90
Value Bet: Dayne Beams (Most Disposals)
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
At the start of the season it was expected that entering this clash one of these sides would be inside the top eight while the other would be languishing towards the bottom of the table.
What no footy fan predicted was that the team inside the eight would be North Melbourne, and the Western Bulldogs, who won the premiership in 2016 would again struggle this season.
Luke Beveridge’s side has been terribly out of form this season and have also had a shocking run with injuries. The biggest problem for the Dogs is hitting the score board, however, they do have an excellent recent record against the Kangaroos. The Bulldogs have won three straight games and four of their past five against their rivals.
But scoring will be the issue for the Western Bulldogs who are ranked 15th for goals per game in the league this season averaging just 9.6.
If they can somehow manage to score up around 100 for this clash we give them a big chance at causing the upset and they should cover the spread of 32.5 points.
The problem is that the Bulldogs have managed to score 100 points just twice this season.
North Melbourne has been tremendous this campaign and should again get the win and continue to push for an unlikely finals berth.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs +32.5 (Line) @ $1.90
Value Bet: Brisbane +32.5 into over 170.5 points.
Collingwood v Carlton
Two arch rivals who are heading in totally different directions which will lead to another humiliating defeat for the Blues.
Carlton put in one of the worst performances in the club’s history last week when belted at home against the struggling Fremantle Dockers when failing to kick a single goal for the entire first half.
Collingwood come into this clash after their best win of the season, a 42-point victory of flag fancies Melbourne.
The Collingwood midfielders ran riot that day and should again have a day out against a Carlton side lacking ability and a thirst for the contest.
Quite simply, the Blues will not be able to get their hands on the ball in this game.
The Magpies are the highest disposal side in the AFL this season, averaging 415.9 a game with the faltering Blues second last with just 343 per game.
Steele Sidebottom led the way for the Magpies last week with 31 touches as he continues to play with the sort of form that has seen him enter the conversation as a Brownllow Medal fancy.
Adam Treloar had 30 touches last week and we reckon he looks a good bet for the most disposals here.
Treloar will run riot through the midfield and ensure that the Collingwood forward get plenty of opportunities to inflict a big score on their opponents.
Best Bet: Collingwood Over 39.5 points (Margin) @ $1.60.
Value Bet: Adam Treloar Most Disposals