Rd 15 AFL Preview & Betting Tips
Last week most of the favourites won – how will they fare this week?
Richmond v Sydney
A top of the table clash to start the round in what could potentially be a sneak preview of the 2018 Grand Final.
Both teams come into the game on the back of the bye and Sydney has won the past two games between these two sides including an extraordinary game last year in Round 13 at the MCG.
Richmond led by 36 points in the second quarter before conceding nine goals to three in the second half as Sydney recorded a famous nine-point victory.
In this clash Alex Rance lowered the colours of Lance Franklin, but Rance has struggled when asked to be accountable this year and we feel that this is one area where the Swans can gain an edge.
The Swans play their best football at Etihad Stadium and recorded a massive 71-point win over St Kilda where a wasteful Franklin kicked four goals and four behinds and should have ended the game with a big bag.
Richmond has been unbeatable at the MCG this season, but the change of venue has as leaning towards the Swans, especially with them given a double figure start at the line.
Looking longer term the Swans are still $6 with TAB to win the flag which will tighten dramatically with a win.
Best Bet: Sydney Swans +10.5 points at the line.
Value Bet: Lance Franklin Most Goals.
Carlton v Port Adelaide
This end of the season cannot come quickly enough for Carlton who have had a disastrous season again in 2018 winning just one match as we enter Round 15.
The Power are just starting to heat up and the biggest problem for the Blues is that they simply cannot score. Carlton continues to hit the scoreboard and is ranked last, averaging just 62 points per game.
The Power are now into single odds in premiership markets with all bookmakers and should continue a surge towards the top four.
Ollie Wines has been in spectacular form this season and has taken it to a new level the last three weeks which has coincided with the Power winning all three fixtures.
Against Richmond, Wines had 29 disposals, then 35 touches and a goal in the win over the Western Bulldogs and last week against Melbourne he racked up 29 touches.
No Power player has played more games at the MCG than former No.1 draft pick Jack Watts who gains a recall after a fortnight out of the team - look for him to have a big impact and kick three or more goals.
The Power should win this game comfortably and we suggest anchoring them through all your footy multi bets. If you want to have a bet on the game back them over 39.5 points.
Best Bet: Port Adelaide over 39.5 (Margin)
Value Bet: Ollie Wines Most Disposals
Adelaide v West Coast
It has been an eventful week for the Adelaide Crows but they look a good bet.
The bye came at the perfect time for the Adelaide Crows after they were humiliated by 56 points against Hawthorn in a game where they managed to kick just four goals for the match.
One shining light for the Crows in the heavy loss to Hawthorn was the form of Matt Crouch who managed to gain 30 disposals and he looks a terrific chance at getting the most touches here.
West Coast was appalling last week against Essendon and despite having lost against one team all season heading into Round 14 we anticipate that they will have a drastic fall in the second half of the season and will miss the top four.
The Eagles looked lost without their tall timber duo of Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling last week and the coaching staff refused to adapt by changing the game plan which is designed around kicking it long.
There will be good betting opportunities taking on the Eagles and we can start here with a confident bet on the Crows.
If you want to get the crystal ball out they might be worth betting against in upcoming games too before they lose this.
Best Bet: Adelaide Crows (Win).
Value Bet: Matt Crouch Most Disposals.
Gold Coast v Collingwood
Ah the Gold Coast Suns!
If the club had any supporters they would be irate with what the side has dished out in the past month.
The Suns season started so brightly but has subsequently fizzled out to the point where they may not win another game this season. They should cop a spanking at the hands of a Collingwood side who after losing their first two games of the season has emerged as a genuine premiership contender.
The Pies went through the motions in defeating arch rivals Carlton last week, but the win before that against Melbourne was a scintillating performance.
The biggest negative in recent times for Collingwood is the injury to star midfielder Adam Treloar who pulled both hamstrings in an unusual injury.
With no Treloar, look for Steele Sidebottom to continue the form that has him in discussion to win the Brownlow Medal and he is now $26 with Ladbrokes.
Collingwood should easily win this game and a couple of potential options for the multi bets are the Pies (Head-to-Head) at the $1.16 or $1.31 on Collingwood leading at both half-time and full-time.
Collingwood is starting to build momentum at a tilt deep into September.
Best Bet: Collingwood half time/full time double.
Value Bet: Steele Sidebottom Most Disposals.
Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn
This could be the biggest game of the round with these two teams potentially set to fight out the final spot in the eight this season.
Both these sides have had similar seasons, when they have looked good they have been touted as genuine premiership contenders, only to throw in some stinkers. An example of this is Hawthorn being touched up by Brisbane and the Giants kicking just four goals in a game against Geelong.
It is the Giants though who are starting to build momentum and if they win this then they may finally be starting to come good on the talent that they have.
Last time these teams played the game ended in a draw after the Hawks led by 15 points at the final change.
Hawks star midfielder Tom Mitchell took the three Brownlow votes when these sides clashed last as he racked up 39 touches, laid nine tackles and kicked a goal. Mitchell again looks a good bet for the Group A Most Disposals.
The Giants have been a frustrating team this season, but after stringing together some wins they may be finding form and as a result look a nice bet at backable odds.
Best Bet: Tom Mitchell Most Disposals Group A.
Value Bet: GWS winning by under 39.5 points (Margin).
Melbourne v St Kilda
After six straight wins, the Demons looked to have the footballing world at their mercy and were pushing hard for a top four and potential top two finish.
Since that point though they have again been branded disappointments with a lacklustre 42-point defeat at the hands of Collingwood before dominating Port Adelaide but failing to convert chances and eventually losing by 10 points last Friday night.
The Saints were brilliant in the last quarter against the Gold Coast Suns when holding them scoreless in the final term and kicking five goals to win by two points to claim their second win of the season.
Back at the MCG though the Demons simply should have too much class.
Look for Ruckman and Brownlow Medal fancy Max Gawn to have a big impact against a Saints side who has struggled in that department.
Gawn looks a great bet to cover his fantasy overs and if you are looking for a rough bet don’t be afraid to have something on him to boot two or more goals.
Melbourne will be too good St Kilda and look a good anchor for multi bets and should cover the line of 38.5 points.
Looking longer term the Demons have drifted from $6 out to as much as $12 with bet365 to win a drought breaking premiership.
Best Bet: Melbourne over 24.5 points
Value Bet: Max Gawn to kick two or more goals.
Essendon v North Melbourne
If you can work out what the Bombers are going to do each week this season then you are a genius.
They are the only side in the competition to lose to Carlton and the only side other than the Sydney Swans to defeat the high-flying West Coast Eagles, which they did away from home by a staggering 28 points last week in a score line that flattered the Eagles.
North Melbourne has been the Cinderella story so far this season and they kept their push for an unlikely finals berth with a thrilling last gasp victory over the Western Bulldogs last Saturday night.
The Kangaroos were led to victory by the evergreen Shaun Higgins who is now in the discussion for the Brownlow Medal.
Higgins is as short as $12 with Ubet and as long as $21 with Ladbrokes for the award and should be prominent on the leader board.
North Melbourne has dominated Essendon recently, winning five of the past seven matches including four of the past five. The Bombers haven't won two in a row against the Kangaroos since 2001 but we are anticipating the Bombers can break that drought and cause a mini upset.
In what should be a cracker we are sticking with the Bombers.
Best Bet: Essendon +1.5 (Line) @ $1.90
Value Bet: Zach Merrett Most Disposals Group A.
Fremantle v Brisbane
Not exactly a blockbuster to end the round but a fascinating betting contest between the 17th placed Brisbane Lions and the 13th placed Fremantle Dockers.
The Lions have been much more competitive this season than a side who has won just one game and the Dockers have shown glimpses of form, especially in matches played at their home ground.
If Lions lose, it will be the second time in three seasons they've lost 13 of their first 14 games to start the season.
Despite their lowly ladder position the Lions are heading in the right direction but the Dockers should do enough to get the job done here.
It will be a fascinating contrast of styles with Brisbane very user friendly for punters who like backing the Total Game Score going over and Fremantle the opposite.
We anticipate that there will be plenty of goals kicked so look for the Dockers to win and a high scoring contest.
The Dockers look a good way to end the weekend and if you want to be more ambitious take Fremantle winning into the total game score going over 167.5 points.
This should be an entertaining spectacular with free-flowing football and plenty of goals kicked.
Best Bet: Fremantle (Win)
Value Bet: Fremantle -24.5 points / Total Game Score Over 167.5