Friday 7:50pm AEDT
Melbourne will be riding a wave of momentum on Friday night and as we saw with the Bulldogs in 2016 and Richmond in 2017, that can take you all the way to the premiership.
The Demons will have to get a past a Hawthorn side who was embarrassed against the premiership favourite Richmond.
There is a history of the side with the double chance being written off and coming back to win - remember when the Swans were massive favourites against Geelong in the semi final last year?
The Cats smashed them, and while we aren’t saying the Hawks will do the same, we are tipping an upset with Al Clarkson’s side to get the job done.
The Hawks have won 15 out of the last 16 matches against the Demons, including an 11-goal demolition in Round 4 this year where Melbourne kicked only one goal after quarter time.
Rest assured the Hawks will know what needs to be done, and crucially for their kick-focused game plan, the forecast is for a dry night, which we saw last week against Richmond is very important to how Hawthorn plays.
Hawthorn to win by a couple of goals and to remind everyone they finished in the top four for a reason.
Best Bet: Hawthorn +14.5
Value Bet: Hawthorn to win by 20-39 points
It’s fair to say the bookmakers got this one wrong when they went up following Collingwood’s loss to West Coast on Saturday night.
For those that got on the $3 which was available for a Giants victory, well done!
Leon Cameron’s side has been crunched into $2.41 and don’t be surprised to see this game closer to $1.90 each of two once the ball is bounced on Saturday night.
Whether the Giants continue to firm that far will be dependent on the injury report to their best player Josh Kelly, who injured his knee in their victory over Sydney on Saturday.
There is probably no other team that could cover for the loss of their best midfielder like the Giants can, with Tim Taranto ready to step into the midfield while Ryan Griffen could return from injury.
GWS could be the biggest threat to Richmond’s premiership defence and against a Collingwood side who has only beaten one finalist this year in nine attempts, the Giants will be too good.
We’re tipping the Giants to win this comfortably and set up a mouthwatering Preliminary Final against Richmond.
Best Bet: GWS to win
Value Bet: GWS to lead the end of every quarter