AFL Round 4: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips
The Gold Coast Suns host the winless Blues as the Saints take on the Hawks.
Gold Coast v Carlton - Metricon Stadium - 2:40pm
It’s unsurprising the Blues head into this fixture without a win but the fact the Suns go in as favourites after two straight wins is. Stuart Dew’s men could easily be undefeated and have a real chance to now make it three wins in a row when they face the winless Blues.
Carlton though will fancy their chance of breaking their season duck after beating the Suns at Metricon in their last two attempts, despite winning just three of their last 35 games. They also have the unwanted record of having not reached triple figures for 58 consecutive matches, which may be a struggle again as Charlie Curnow is set to miss a second consecutive week, while it’s unlikely Mitch McGovern will lineup after injuring his hamstring against the Swans in the third quarter and failed to return to the ground. They will also be sweating on the fitness of ruck duo Matthew Kreuzer and Andrew Phillips who will be crucial to negating the influence of Suns co-captain Jarrod Witts, who won the hitout count 71-16 last week against Tim English.
After dominating this matchup last time out, Patrick Cripps will be looking for a similar output in a hope to lead his team to a much-needed victory and give themselves and their supporters some reward.
Key Stat: Gold Coast has a 1-6 W/L record as a home team in day matches from 2018 onwards.
Best bet: Carlton +9.5 @ $1.90*
Value bet: Carlton 1-39 @ $2.55*
St Kilda v Hawthorn - Marvel Stadium - 3:20pm
A 3-1 carrot dangles in front of both these clubs as they meet in the final game of round 4 at Marvel Stadium. Both with two wins from their first three games, the prize on offer is a near perfect start to the season as the loser drops back to the pack at 2-2.
The Hawks have owned the rivalry in recent seasons, winning eight of their last 10 against the Saints but two of the last three wins have been by under a kick. The Saints are travelling back from Perth where they fell by five-points to Fremantle despite controlling large portions of the game.
The Hawks had to overcome a slow start but powered home in the second half to beat the Kangaroos, riding a brilliant debut from star recruit Chad Wingard, giving Hawks’ fans a glimpse of their future. The Saints are playing with a new belief and look a harder team to beat, but the Hawks have the class edge across most of the park and should prove too strong.
Key Stat: Hawthorn has a 7-3 W/L record in day matches at Marvel Stadium from 2010 onwards.
Best bet: Hawthorn -14.5 @ $1.92*
Value bet: Hawthorn 40+ @ $3.80*