AFL Round 5: Easter Sunday Previews & Betting Tips

Ryan Lepore
 | 
Wed, 17 Apr, 12:00 AM

Western Bulldogs v Carlton - Marvel Stadium - 1:10 PM

The Bulldogs are looking to respond after back-to-back losses, while the Blues are still seeking their maiden win of 2019 after suffering a last gasp defeat to the Suns last week.

It was the Bulldogs who fell to the Suns a week prior and followed that close loss with a competitive showing against the Pies, in which they led half way through the final term, but ultimately their lack of goal scoring power again came back to bite them as they failed to record 10 goals for the second consecutive week.

Scoring has been the biggest issue for Brendan Bolton’s men for what seems no doubt like an eternity now for Blues fans. It’s been 58 matches since they recorded over 100 points in a game and even more concerning is they haven’t reached 80+ for 18 straight matches, winning just one game in that span. They rank last for points scored this season (66.8 per game) but have covered the line in three of their four matches this season. The Bulldogs have won five straight against the Blues, all of which have fallen under the total match points line and another low scoring contest is in store for us on Sunday, which the Dogs should find a way to win their third match of the season.

 

Key Stat: The last five fixtures between these two teams have gone UNDER the total match points line. All five have been won by the Bulldogs.

 

Tip: Western Bulldogs

Best bet: Western Bulldogs -1-39 @ $2.10*

Value bet: Tory Dickson First Goalscorer @ $19*

Adelaide v Gold Coast - Adelaide Oval - 4:40 PM

The Crows have clearly been the biggest disappointment of the season thus far and must get back on the winners list in front of their home crowd against the Suns - a team they’ve never lost to, on Sunday. It will be a celebration of champion Eddie Betts who will run out for the 300th time in an AFL match but those celebrations will count for little if they’re not able to claim the four points and get their season back on track.

The Suns have taken all before them in 2019, winning three of their opening four matches, all of which have been decided by less than a goal. The biggest difference for Stuart Dew’s men has been the defence and how they’ve become a hard team to score against. Last year they ranked 17th with 99.2 points per game against compared to 3rd this season at just 67 points per game.

The once high scoring powerful offence for Adelaide has dropped to just 16th in the league this season but have never not scored 100+ against the Suns in their 11 encounters, winning every match with a smallest winning margin of 28 points. If the Crows are to feature in September they must keep that streak alive and celebrate Eddie Betts’ 300th in style with a big win.

 

Key Stat: Adelaide have won all 11 matches against the Suns, covering the line in all 11.

 

Tip: Adelaide

Best bet: Adelaide 1-39 @ $1.95*

Value bet: Adelaide -28.5/Over 151.5 @ $3.30*

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