AFL Round 6: Saturday Afternoon Match Previews & Betting Tips

Saturday brings us the most anticipated Q clash in recent history as both teams look to fight their way back into the top eight while the high-flying Saints will be looking to claim another scalp and consolidate their top four position when they host the Crows.

Ryan Lepore
Thu, 25 Apr, 3:00 AM

Gold Coast v Brisbane - Metricon Stadium - 1:45pm

It’s the most anticipated Q Clash in years, if not ever as the outcome has real ladder ramifications. Both teams come into the contest at 3-2 with the winner forcing their way back in to the top eight, even if it is temporary. Brisbane will be looking to bounce back from two consecutive drubbings at the hands of Essendon and Collingwood, which has dampened their 3-0 start to the season. The Gold Coast had played four consecutive matches which were deceived by under a kick, but that ended last week when they went down to Crows by 73-points in what was reminiscent of last season’s form. The teams split their two meetings last season with the away team winning by under a goal each time, which gives Brisbane a 10-6 overall record against their geographical rivals. The Suns come into the match as the 18th ranked team in terms of points per game (64.6) but face the 16th ranked Lions defence who score heavily themselves but have leaked goals on the other side, which makes this an intriguing matchup.

Key Stat: Gold Coast has an 8-16 W/L record at Metricon Stadium after a loss from 2016 onwards.

 

Tip: Brisbane

Best bet: Brisbane -16.5

Value bet: Brisbane -16.5/Over 170.5

St Kilda v Adelaide - Marvel Stadium - 4:35pm

Up and about after registering their fourth win from the opening five rounds, St Kilda will look to continue their surprising start to the season by downing the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. The Crows’ season prospects looked bleak prior to Round 5, however, a dominant 73-point victory over the Suns in Eddie Betts’ 300th sees them sitting at 2-3, just one win outside the top four. Putting on a similarly dominant offensive performance may be considerably more difficult against a Saints side which ranks #2 for points conceded, especially given the Crows averaged just 69.3 over the first four rounds. St Kilda put forth its best defensive performance of 2019 last weekend, holding Melbourne to just 55 in a 40-point win. However, given the Saints have scored 62 points or less in six of their last seven against the Crows and lost eight head-to-head matchups on the bounce, they will have to buck history in order to extend their winning streak to four.

 

Key Stat: Each of the last six matches at Marvel Stadium have gone under the total match points line.

 

Tip: St Kilda

Best bet: Under 168.5 total match points

Value bet: St Kilda 1-39

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