AFL Round 6: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips

After finally breaking their season duck, the Blues will be eager to make it two in a row against a struggling Hawks outfit. Geelong came into the round on top of the AFL ladder and exit it in the same position with a win over West Coast.

Ryan Lepore
 | 
Thu, 25 Apr, 3:00 AM

Hawthorn v Carlton - University of Tasmania Stadium - 3:20pm

Hawthorn hosts their first home game in Tasmania for the season on Sunday against Carlton fresh off their first win of the season.

The Blues led all day in a brilliant bounce-back performance against the Dogs where they also managed to crack triple figures for the first time in 1051 days with Sam Walsh’s goal with the final kick of the game. Youngster Harry McKay was dominant plucking 11 marks and booting four goals in a breakout display, which would have brought a smile to even the most inpatient Carlton fan.

The Hawks slumped to 2-3 after an entertaining Easter Monday dual against the Cats but will be bolstered by the return of some crucial players for their date with Carlton. Skipper Ben Stratton and Liam Shiels will play for the Hawks while Charlie Curnow could be back for the Blues after being a late withdrawal last week. Hawthorn has owned the rivalry in recent years, winning 15 of the last 16, with seven of those being by over 50 points. This one will certainly be a lot closer than that with a buoyant Blues outfit determined to build off their breakthrough victory.

 

Key Stat: Hawthorn have won 15 of their last 16 matches against Carlton

 

Tip: Hawthorn

Best bet: Under 165.5 total match points

Value bet: Hawthorn 1-39

Geelong v West Coast - GMHBA Stadium - 4:40pm

West Coast has had to wait nine days for their shot at erasing their poor performance from Good Friday as they travel down to Geelong to face the top of the table Cats.

Geelong enters the round on top of the table thanks to four wins from their five games, three against finalists from last season. They will get a chance at another big scalp in the reigning premiers who lowered their colours at home against the Power last week. The contested possession count will be keeping Adam Simpson up at night as they again were smashed in that area. They now rank 18th for contested possession differential, a substantial drop from 7th last season.

The Cats, on the other hand, are finding ways to win, and kick goals. Despite being ranked 14th in the competition for inside 50s, the Cats are the highest-scoring team after round five, averaging 97 points per game compared to the Eagles' 76.4. West Coast's defence will be stretched even further without premiership player Tom Barrass who will now require surgery on a troublesome foot.

 

Key Stat: Geelong has won their last four matches against West Coast at GMHBA Stadium by an average of 52.7 points.

 

Tip: West Coast

Best bet: West Coast +16.5

Value bet: West Coast 1-39

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