AFL Round 7: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips

A crucial clash between two of the competition’s struggling teams as they seek a second win and keep their respective season’s alive. Shaped as the match of the round, the Bombers get to test themselves once again against the top of the table Cats.

Ryan Lepore
Thu, 2 May, 12:00 AM

Carlton v North Melbourne - Marvel Stadium - 1:10pm

A rare meeting between Carlton and North Melbourne shapes as one of the most important of the round with the loser dropping to 1-6 and effectively ending their season. The teams have only met nine times this decade, just one a season since 2010 with Kangaroos winning six of those including their last four by an average of 58.5 points.

However, it’s the Blues who come in as the team in better form having beaten the Bulldogs and narrowly going down to Hawthorn last week after leading by as much as six goals. North Melbourne were gallant, but never really a winning threat against Port Adelaide as they slumped to their 5th defeat of the season and left them languishing in 17th place on the ladder. They will head into this contest as favourites though, largely thanks to Carlton’s lengthy injury list, which came out of the loss against Hawthorn.

Matthew Kreuzer, Kade Simpson, Nic Newman will all miss the match, with the latter two to miss at least three weeks each. North Melbourne could be missing Jared Polec, but will regain Shaun Higgins who was a late withdrawal against the Power.

Key Stat: Carlton has a 3-13  W/L record at Marvel Stadium from 2017 onwards.

Tip: North Melbourne @ $1.72*

Best bet: North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.30*

Value bet: North Melbourne -4.5/Over 161.5 @ $3.60*

Geelong v Essendon - MCG - 3:20pm

Geelong and Essendon meet at the MCG on Sunday as part of the annual Country Festival, as the Bombers look to make it three straight wins over the Cats in such fixture. Essendon fought back bravely against the Pies on ANZAC Day to fall short by just four-points, however, it will mean little to John Worsfold and his troops, especially if they’re unable to match that effort from the second half against the top of the table Cats.

Geelong were dominant in their 58-point thrashing of the Eagles, sending a message to the competition that they are the real deal in 2019. As well as sitting a game clear and percentage on top the ladder, Geelong rank #1 for offence (98.2) and defence (66.8), scoring the heaviest and conceding the least points in the competition. Their manic pressure in the forward line and their rock solid defence has been key to their success, while Gary Rohan, Tom Hawkins and Gary Ablett have combined for 38 goals through the first six weeks.

Essendon will be hoping their tall forwards can again have a major impact. Joe Daniher didn’t play in the corepsongins fixture last season but is coming off a brilliant display against the Pies as he threatened to lift his team over the line, while Shaun McKernan booted four goals the last time these two teams met, which was an upset 34-point win for the Bombers.

Key Stat: Geelong has a 49-15 W/L record playing within its home state in day matches from 2012 onwards.

Tip: Geelong

Best bet: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.15*

Value bet: Geelong -14.5/Over 172.5 @ $3.40*

Adelaide v Fremantle - Adelaide Oval - 4:40pm

A top eight spot beckong for the Crows as they host the Dockers on Sunday at the Adelaide Oval seeking their third straight win. Fremantle themselves are coming off back-to-back wins and can solidify their top four status with another win, while a loss will have them back in the pack at 4-3. The Dockers shocked the football world by beating the Giants in Canberra a fortnight ago, before backing it up with a win against the Bulldogs last week, which has them 2nd after the opening six rounds.

The Crows will be looking to break into the top eight for the first time this season after looking like they’ve turned the corner after two big wins with their free-flowing attack on show. It will be tested against Fremantle’s #2 ranked defence, holding teams to 67.7 points per game. The Crows have been miserly in defence too, ranking #4 with just 72.2 points per game scored against them and if last season’s meeting at Optus Stadium is anything to go by (Fremantle won 71-68) another low-scoring contest could be on the cards.

Key Stat: Adelaide has a 39-14 (73.6%) W/L record at the Adelaide Oval from 2015 onwards.

Tip: Adelaide

Best bet: Under 164.5 total match points

Value bet: Fremantle +20.5/Under 164.5 @ $3.40*

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