AFL Round 10: Sunday Previews & Betting Tips
Melbourne will attempt to extend the Giants’ terrible record at the MCG while keeping their season alive, Brendon Bolton and Alan Richardson could be coaching for their careers when Carlton and St Kilda square off and Brisbane will be looking to remain inside the top four with victory over Fremantle.
Melbourne v GWS - MCG - 1:10pm
Melbourne returns to the MCG after their two consecutive interstate trips that could have been so fruitful, yet has left them entering this contest against the Giants at 3-6 and on the brink of finals elimination. Back-to-back wins over Hawthorn and Gold Coast got Melbourne back on-track after a 1-5 start, but a wasteful display against the Eagles last Friday night saw them travel home without four points and a challenging task on Sunday.
The Giants are coming off a 93-point win over the Blues, despite Coleman Medal leader Jeremy Cameron being held goalless for the second consecutive week Jeremy Finlayson chimed in with a career-best five goals, which took his season tally to 21 after entering the season with just four in his career. The huge win followed a 33-point loss to the Hawks at the MCG where they recorded their second lowest score in the last four year and continued their woes at the venue. Leon Cameron’s men have won just two from their 16 matches at the home of football and will be looking to bury some demons - pun intended, this weekend.
Key Stat: GWS have failed to cover the line in their last six day matches at the MCG.
Best bet: GWS 1-39
Value bet: GWS 40+
St Kilda v Carlton - Marvel Stadium - 3:20pm
With the pressure mounting on Brendon Bolton and his troops after a dismal display against GWS, Carlton will need to respond strongly against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon. That 93-point loss at Giants Stadium appears to have undone much of the goodwill which had been directed towards the Blues after their strong showing against the Magpies the week prior.
The narrative has also started to sour on St Kilda, which has now lost four matches on the bounce after falling by 41-points to Collingwood last weekend, despite looking like the better team for the majority, like the Blues a week earlier. Throughout their losing streak the Saints have been unable to put enough scoreboard pressure on the opposition, scoring no more than 71 in any contest. However, that could prove less of an issue against Carlton’s league-worst defence. Recent history between these clubs would indicate that defence could be under fire once again with St Kilda averaging 108.3 points from its last four outings against Carlton, all of them wins.
Key Stat: St Kilda has won its last 15 Sunday matches when starting as a favourite
Tip: St Kilda
Best bet: St Kilda 1-39
Value bet: St Kilda -15.5/Under 163.5
Fremantle v Brisbane - Optus Stadium - 5:20pm
Looking to further solidify its position in the top four, Brisbane will head west to take on Fremantle at Optus Stadium. The Lions moved to 6-3 last weekend through a narrow one-point win over the Crows at the Gabba, snapping seven-game losing streak to them in the process. That result marked Brisbane’s fifth win from six matches in Queensland this season, a record which is in stark contrast to its 1-2 mark away from the sunshine state. Each of those three contests came against sides currently ranked outside the top eight, a position their opponents also occupy, with the Dockers sitting ninth after falling to their fifth loss of the season in Round 9.
That seven-point loss to the Bombers at Marvel Stadium left Fremantle with a 1-4 record from its five away matches in 2019, compared to their 3-1 record at home. Nevertheless, the Lions should still have confidence in their ability to buck those trends given they defeated the Dockers by 55 points at this venue in their only meeting last season.
Key Stat: Fremantle has lost its last three Round 10 matches when starting as a favourite.
Best bet: Brisbane 1-39
Value bet: Brisbane over 15.5