AFL Round 11: Saturday Afternoon Match Previews & Betting Tips
Collingwood will look to win their 8th straight game when they host Fremantle at the MCG, the Suns face a Giant challenge against GWS, while the Swans will look to continue their amazing record in Geelong against the Cats.
Collingwood v Fremantle - MCG - 1:45pm
Collingwood will welcome Fremantle to the MCG on Saturday afternoon in search of its 8th consecutive victory. The Magpies extended their winning streak to seven through a hard-fought seven-point triumph over the Swans at the SCG last Friday night. That marked consecutive matches without Darcy Moore and Jordan De Goey, however, Collingwood is hopeful those two stars can return, with Taylor Adams and Mason Cox again likely to miss. Daniel Wells will join those two on the sidelines after injuring his knee in his first game back in close to 12 months, which followed a brilliant first half performance.
Fremantle snapped a three-game losing streak with a thrilling after-the-siren victory over Brisbane. Michael Walters poster was enough to propel the Dockers back into the top eight, however, there remains a lot to prove if they are to legitimise their hopes of playing finals football. Fremantle has won just once from five away matches in 2019, while its most recent outing at this venue against Collingwood ended in a 61-point loss and haven’t beaten the Magpies at the MCG since 2006.
Key Stat: Collingwood has won its last six day matches against Fremantle
Tip: Collingwood - $1.17* (Ladbrokes)
Best bet: Collingwood 1-39 - $2.14* (Ladbrokes)
Value bet: Collingwood 40+ - $2.18* (Ladbrokes)
GWS v Gold Coast - Giants Stadium - 2:10pm
Gold Coast face another tall order when they travel to Sydney to tackle the Giants on Saturday afternoon. The Suns are currently on a six-game losing streak since beginning the season 3-1, and are lamenting last quarter fadeouts after being ultra competitive early in matches.
Last week’s 27-point loss against Geelong was the second straight week the Suns had failed to kick a goal in the final quarter and remain the lowest scoring team in the competition, averaging a measly 61.7 points per game. In contrast the Giants rank 2nd for points per game at 95.4 and are coming off two consecutive big wins against the lowly ranked Blues and Demons and are likely to make it three against the Suns who haven’t beaten them since 2014, a run of six straight wins.
From the three matches the Giants have played at at this venue 2019, they’ve have won by an average winning margin of 74.6 points and that trend looks set to continue on Saturday.
Key Stat: The favourite has covered the line nine of the last 10 matches between these two clubs.
Tip: GWS - $1.05* (Ladbrokes)
Best bet: GWS 40+ - $1.55* (Ladbrokes)
Value bet: GWS 72+
Geelong v Sydney - GMHBA Stadium - 4:35pm
The Cats return home to Geelong to host the Swans in the Saturday twilight fixture in what shapes as a danger game against one of their great modern-day rivals.
Geelong continued on their winning ways last week but were made to work very hard by a plucky Gold Coast outfit. Geelong led by just two points heading into the final break but were able to keep the Suns goalless in the last quarter and run away triumphant by 27-points. The Swans were brave against the Pies on Friday night and almost pinched their third consecutive win, eventually going down by seven-points
Injuries to midfielders Josh Kennedy and George Hewett late in the game proved costly as the Swans fell just short despite a six-goal haul from Sam Reid. Both of those men will be unlikely to back up against the Cats, but former Cat, Daniel Menzel will be in line for his debut in the red and white against his former club after a four-goal performance in the NEAFL.
For the Cats, Paddy Dangerfield should be available to replace the suspended Gary Ablett as they look to break a run of three straight losses to the Swans on their home ground.
Key Stat: Sydney has won their last three matches against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium
Tip: Geelong - $1.16* (Ladbrokes)
Best bet: Sydney +31.5
Value bet: Sydney +31.5/Under 158.5