AFL Round 11: Saturday Night Match Previews & Betting Tips
Brisbane looks to bounce back from an after the siren win when they host the Hawks at the Gabba, while the Dees will get one final chance to keep their season alive when they face the Crows in Darwin.
Brisbane v Hawthorn - Gabba - 7:25pm
Brisbane and Hawthorn will go in search of a crucial victory to further their finals credentials when they face off at the Gabba on Saturday evening.
Despite falling to Fremantle after the siren last weekend, Brisbane is currently the better positioned of these clubs, having won six of its 10 contests this season. Five of those wins have come from six matches in Queensland, indicating the Hawks could be in for a difficult assignment, especially after two heavy defeats to the Lions in 2018.
The Lions were especially dominant when they welcomed the Hawks to the Gabba, with a 56-point triumph marking their highest score and biggest win of the season. Although they have demonstrated their defensive prowess across the last three weeks by holding both GWS and Port Adelaide below 50 points, doing the same to Brisbane’s fourth-ranked attack may prove a significantly greater challenge for the Hawks.
Key Stat: Brisbane have failed to cover the line in its last nine matches as a favourite coming off an away loss
Tip: Brisbane - $1.62* (Ladbrokes)
Best bet: Brisbane 1-39 - $2.20* (Ladbrokes)
Value bet: Lachie Neale Most Disposals Group A
Melbourne v Adelaide - Gabba - 7:40pm
The AFL returns to Darwin on Saturday night as Melbourne hosts the Adelaide Crows at TIO Stadium. This will mark the third meeting between these sides in the Northern Territory over the last three seasons; the previous two matchups have seen each team win by a hefty margin.
The Crows win 46 points at this venue in 2017, while it was the Demons by 91 points in Alice Springs last season. Additionally, the Demons came out on top 90-77 when they took on the Crows at the Adelaide Oval late last season, however, recent form indicates the Dees could struggle on Saturday.
Melbourne has won just three times in 2019 and is riding a two-match losing streak having fallen to GWS and West Coast. It has been in attack where the Demons have really struggled, with their 69.3 points per match ranking 17th in the competition. That lack of polish going forward may again be a difference maker against Adelaide, which has conceded the third-fewest points in 2019 and will be eager to bounce back from a two-match losing streak of their own.
Key Stat: The favourite has won Melbourne’s last eight games at TIO Stadium in Darwin
Tip: Adelaide - $1.62* (Ladbrokes)
Best bet: Adelaide -7.5 - $1.90* (Ladbrokes)
Value bet: Adelaide over 15.5