AFL Round 12: Saturday Match Previews & Betting Tips
Can Carlton show something under caretaker coach David Teague against a Brisbane team looking to push into the top four? North Melbourne will be looking for a 3rd consecutive win when travel to the Gold Coast and Adelaide will get to test themselves against the Giants in a fascinating Saturday night contest.
Carlton v Brisbane - Marvel Stadium - 1:45pm
After a turbulent week, which ultimately ended with Brendon Bolton’s sacking, Carlton will be be looking for a similar response as the Kangaroos under new caretaker coach David Teague when they host the Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Carlton enters Saturday’s fixture having suffered defeat in 39 of its last 43 matches, including last week’s listless 41-point defeat to Essendon at a rain-soaked MCG, the final straw for Bolton who ended his time as coach with a 16-61 record from his time in charge.
For the Lions, 2019 has been the year in which they have returned from a decade in the wilderness, now sitting at 7-4 following an 19-point come-from-behind victory over the Hawks at the Gabba. The Lions do, however, still need to prove their worth away from Queensland, having lost three of four such fixtures this season. Even so, Brisbane holds a strong recent record against Carlton, having claimed victory in six of their last seven meetings, with three of those triumphs coming by a margin of at least five goals.
Key Stat: Brisbane has covered the line in seven of its last eight matches against Carlton.
Best bet: Brisbane -17.5
Value bet: Lachie Neale most disposals Group A
Gold Coast v North Melbourne - Metricon Stadium - 4:35pm
In search of its third consecutive victory, North Melbourne will travel to Metricon Stadium to tackle Gold Coast in the Saturday twilight fixture.
The Kangaroos have played inspired football since news broke that Brad Scott would be moving on as head coach, first defeating the Bulldogs by 25-points before demolishing Richmond by 37-points last Friday night, a margin that flattered the Tigers.
Elsewhere, the Suns have hit somewhat of a bump in the road, with their 83-point loss to the Giants last week, making it seven straight losses for Stuart Dew’s men. Nevertheless, the Suns should not be underestimated at Metricon Stadium, where they have won two of their four matches against interstate clubs this season. Defence has been a huge factor in those contests, with the hosts conceding more than 61 points just once. That trend has been replicated in Gold Coast’s last five home matches against North Melbourne, seeing the visiting side score an average of 75.6 points en route to four losses.
Key Stat: Gold Coast has covered the line in nine of its last 10 matches against North Melbourne
Tip: North Melbourne
Best bet: Gold Coast +21.5
Value bet: Gold Coast 1-39
Adelaide v GWS - Adelaide Oval - 7:40pm
Looking to further solidify its position as a serious premiership contender, GWS will hit the road to face 8th placed Crows at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.
The Giants moved up to second on the ladder through a 83-point demolition of the Suns last weekend during which a nine-goal fourth quarter ran up the scoreboard as Stephen Coniglio put on a masterclass, kicking three of those from the midfield.
Elsewhere, the Crows’ Round 11 result was also heavily influenced by a dominant last quarter of their own, as they outscored the Demons by three goals to triumph 90-88 in Darwin. That result continued Adelaide’s strong form in recent weeks, yielding them five wins from their last seven matches while its two defeats have come by a total margin of just 13 points. However, Adelaide has been somewhat underwhelming at the Adelaide Oval, winning just two of their five matches against interstate opposition. Furthermore, when considering the Giants defeated the Crows twice last season, it may be another uphill battle for the hosts.
Key Stat: Adelaide has won eight its last nine matches at home as an underdog
Best bet: Adelaide 1-39
Value bet: GWS/Adelaide HT/FT double