AFL Round 14: Saturday Match Previews & Betting Tips
Fremantle will be looking for a 4th straight win when they travel to the ‘G to face Melbourne, the Lions return to Marvel Stadium looking to get back on the winners list against St Kilda and the Power host the Cats in a huge Saturday night showdown.
Melbourne v Fremantle - MCG - 1:45pm
Looking to further solidify its position inside the top eight, Fremantle will hit the road to tackle Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. The Dockers moved their winning streak to three matches thanks to a 21-point victory over the Power last weekend.
Michael Walters continued his brilliant form by accumulating 25 disposals and kicking six goals during that contest and should back himself to again have an impact at the venue where he kicked the match-winning goal against Collingwood just three weeks ago.
Prior to their bye, Melbourne was defeated by 41-points by Collingwood on Queen’s Birthday, which has left them without a victory in four matches. During the losing streak, they have scored 69 points or less on three occasions and continues to be their achilles heel this season where they are ranked 17th for points per match.
This is in stark contrast to 2018 where the Demons were the highest scoring team in the competition and will come up against their former star forward in Jesse Hogan for the first time on Saturday. Fremantle’s defence has conceded a league-low 66.3 points in away matches this season, indicating Melbourne’s forward line will again be under pressure to kick a winning score.
Key Stat: Fremantle has won its last six day matches against Melbourne
Best bet: Fremantle H2H
Value bet: Fremantle over 24.5
St Kilda v Brisbane - Marvel Stadium - 4:35pm
Brisbane returns to the scene of the crime where they were overrun by the Blues a fortnight ago to face the Saints in what looms as another danger game for Chris Fagan’s men.
After enjoying the bye last week, Brisbane dropped to 7th on the ladder and will look to make amends at the venue they were beaten in their last match. It was the first time in six attempts this season the Lions were beaten when starting the match as favourites and will again carry that tag into Saturday’s match.
The Saints are coming off a barnstorming win against the Suns in Townsville where they trailed by 31-points in the second half. The win saw St Kilda square the ledger at 6-6 and are knocking on the door of the top eight, but this fixture against a similarly placed opponent shapes as a must-win if they’re to threaten for a September appearance.
The Saints have owned the recent history between the two clubs, winning seven of their past nine including the last three by an average of 38 points, all of which all have been played at Marvel Stadium.
Key Stat: St Kilda has a 6-12-1 W/L/D record at Marvel Stadium from 2018 onwards
Best bet: Brisbane 1-39
Value bet: Brisbane over 24.5
Port Adelaide v Geelong - Adelaide Oval - 7:40pm
Geelong will look to continue where it left off before their bye week when they travel to the Adelaide Oval to face Port Adelaide.
The Cats sit comfortably on top of the ladder, two games clear of the Magpies and Giants with an 11-1 record, but their form immediately following a week off is concerning, having lost their last seven such matches dating back to 2011.
Port Adelaide finally returns for a match after having spent the last month on the road, travelling to Launceston and China prior to their bye before heading to Perth last week where they were overrun in the last quarter, going down by 21-points to the Dockers. The loss dropped the Power back to 6-6 and outside the top eight and will need to overcome a dreadful recent record where they’ve lost 14 of their last 15 matches against the Cats if they’re to climb back in.
The home side will be bolstered by the returns of Ollie Wines, Brett Ebert and Charlie Dixon, who will play his first game of the season, while the Cats have no major injury concerns and will be seeking to continue their brilliant recent interstate record having won their last five matches outside Victoria.
Key Stat: Geelong have won 14 of their last 15 matches against Port Adelaide
Best bet: Geelong 1-39
Value bet: Travis Boak Most Disposals Group A