AFL Round 15: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips
St Kilda and Richmond kick off Sunday’s triple-header under the roof at Marvel before the Lions look to solidify their top eight position when the host the Dees, before the Dockers close out the round against the Blues out west.
St Kilda v Richmond - Marvel Stadium - 1:10pm
After three straight losses that has seen them drop out of the top eight, Richmond will be looking to bounce back against the Saints in Maddie’s Match on Sunday afternoon. Prior to their bye, the Tigers dropped games to North Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide, which has also seen their percentage take a significant hit.
The Saints can ill afford another slip up if they’re to challenge for finals footy after a disastrous showing against the Lions last week. The 56-point loss dropped St Kilda’s percentage to the 15th worst in the league, despite sitting in 11th and just four points outside the eight. Alan Richardson’s men will be keen to respond after the blowtorch has well and truly been on the coach and the playing group this week.
The club's own the longest two injury lists in the league, but the cavalry is starting to arrive for the Tigers who should welcome back skipper Trent Cotchin, Kane Lambert and Shane Edwards on Sunday, while Jayden Short remains an outside chance. That could spell trouble for the Saints who have won just two of their past 11 outings against the Tigers and haven’t scored over 80 points since Round 5.
Key Stat: St Kilda has a 4-2 line record in day matches against Richmond from 2014 onwards.
Best bet: St Kilda +21.5
Value bet: St Kilda 1-39
Brisbane v Melbourne - Gabba - 3:20pm
Looking to solidly their place in the top eight, Brisbane will welcome Melbourne to the Gabba on Sunday afternoon. The Lions recorded their eighth win in style by dominating the Saints at Marvel Stadium last weekend. That 56-point win saw Brisbane put on nine goals to one during the third quarter, while Charlie Cameron proved a major contributor by slotting through five goals to take his season tally to 26.
Meanwhile, the Demons notched their fourth win of the campaign by sneaking past the Dockers by 14-points at the MCG. Tom McDonald was back to his damaging best during that encounter, putting through three majors from 28 disposals. Melbourne have won their last four encounters against the Lions, but haven’t travelled up to the Gabba since 2013.
Brisbane have won their last two at this venue against Melbourne by an average of 44.5 points and a similar result may be on the cards on Sunday given the Lions have lost just once from their seven matches in Queensland this season.
Key Stat: Eight of Melbourne’s last nine matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Best bet: Under 168.5
Value bet: Brisbane -13.5/under 168.5
Fremantle v Carlton - Optus Stadium - 5:20pm
Looking to bounce back from its disappointing loss to Melbourne, Fremantle will return home to host last-placed Carlton on Sunday. In spite of that 14-point loss, the Dockers still enter Round 14 inside the top eight, however, with the Tigers and now Bomberds breathing down their necks, nothing short of a strong victory will do against the Blues.
Completing such a result should be nothing short of straight forward considering they have lost just once as the home team this season. Further enhancing the likelihood of a Fremantle victory is Carlton’s underwhelming interstate record which includes 18 defeats from its last 20 such contests and made even more difficult without their captain and best player Patrick Cripps missing the match.
That record includes two losses to the Dockers while they were also defeated in Melbourne midway through 2018. However, given all of those results came under Brendon Bolton, the Blues may yet be able to continue the improvement shown from their last two results – a 78-63 victory over the Lions and thrilling 103-100 loss to the Bulldogs.
Key Stat: The home team has covered the line in the last six Cartlon matches
Best bet: Fremantle -35.5
Value bet: Fremantle 60+