AFL Round 16: Saturday Afternoon Match Previews & Betting Tips

It’s high stakes at the MCG on Saturday afternoon when the Dons host the Swans, Richmond travel north to take on the struggling Suns before arguably the match of the round huge at the Adelaide Oval with Showdown 47.

Ryan Lepore
Wed, 3 Jul, 00:00

Essendon v Sydney - MCG- 1:45pm

How different a week it could have been for Essendon if not for their last ditch goal, which propelled them to an upset victory over the Giants. They now face another finals contender in what shapes as an eight-point game when they host the Swans at the MCG for the first time since 2004.

It has been a further 81 years since the Swans last overcame the Bombers at this venue, however, these sides are no strangers having met just eight weeks ago at the SCG. That controversial result went the way of Sydney by five-points in spite of Dane Rampe’s post-climbing antics after the final siren. That fixture kick-started a resurgence from the Swans, which now includes five wins from their last seven matches after they most recently defeated the Suns by 42-points. However, the Swans were less successful during their most recent interstate fixture against the Bombers, beaten by 33-points at Marvel Stadium last July.

Both teams will go in without their number one ruckmen after both Tom Bellchambers and Callum Sinclar were injured during victories last week, while the absence of Lance Franklin for the Swans could play a major role given he has kicked a career-high 70 goals from 16 appearances against Essendon.


Key Stat: The home team has won each of the last seven matches between Essendon and Sydney.


Tip: Essendon

Best bet: Essendon -10.5

Value bet: Essendon over 24.5

Gold Coast v Richmond - Metricon Stadium - 2:10pm

Richmond got back on track with a come-from-behind victory last week and will look to continue that momentum into their final game away from the MCG for the home and away season when they travel to the Gold Coastto take on the Suns.

The Tigers welcomed back seven players during that 33-point victory and are expected to regain several more from injury in the coming weeks. The Suns were competitive early against the Swans before falling away in the second half to lose by 42-points.

It’s been a common trend for Stuart Dew’s men during their 10-game losing streak having kicked just 10 goals in their last six fourth quarters. Furthermore, Gold Coast has failed to defeat Richmond since 2014, losing four consecutive meetings by an average of 51.8 points. Their most recent encounter also came at this venue and resulted in a considerably one-sided 125-51 scoreline as Jack Riewoldt booted 10 goals. With Riewoldt sidelined this time around, it could be former Gold Coast captain, Tom Lynch who takes advantage of his old side’s shortcomings.


Key Stat: Gold Coast has lost each of its last 14 Saturday matches at Metricon Stadium.


Tip: Richmond

Best bet: Over 148.5 total match points

Value bet: Gold Coast +32.5/Over 148.5

Adelaide v Port Adelaide - Adelaide Oval - 4:35pm

Showdown 47 takes place on Saturday afternoon when Adelaide and Port Adelaide face off in what could be a season-defining fixture for both clubs.

For the Power this matchup provides the opportunity to swiftly respond to their extremely disappointing 25-point home loss to the Bulldogs last weekend, which left them on the outer in the race to September. Comparatively, for the Crows this could be the catalyst which pushes them towards a potential top-four finish given their favourable draw where they begin a five-match stretch in which they are currently classed as favourites on each occasion.

Adelaide has performed well as a favourite in 2019, winning six of its eight such matches, including an 20-point triumph over the Power in Round 8. That result marked the Crows’ seventh win in the last eight head-to-head encounters between these cross-town rivals, but it should count for little with these teams playing out two pulsating fixtures last season, which were decided by under a goal and with so much on the line for both clubs, this one will again go down to the wire.


Key Stat: The underdog has covered the line in each of the last 10 Saturday day matches at the Adelaide Oval.


Tip: Port Adelaide

Best bet: Either team by under 15.5

Value bet: Port Adelaide +6.5/Under 159.5

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