AFL Round 16: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips

Carlton and Melbourne meet at the MCG in the early game with a chance to leapfrog the Dees with a win, North looks to continue their hot form under Rhyce Shaw against the Saints in Hobart before the Giants host the Lions in a mouthwatering twilight fixture.

Oddschecker
Thu, 4 Jul, 12:00 AM

Carlton v Melbourne - MCG - 1:10pm

One week removed from its stunning victory over Fremantle, Carlton will return to the MCG to tackle Melbourne on Sunday afternoon.

The Blues found themselves 29 points down at quarter-time against the Dockers and despite being without Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Patrick Cripps, provided a remarkable comeback to triumph 79-75 thanks to a Marc Murphy goal in the dying stages. Although this fixture will begin at an even keel, it may be difficult to replicate that incredible effort if none of those names return.

There would be more hope for Carlton if Melbourne’s Max Gawn was to miss after sustaining an ankle injury during his side’s 33-point loss in Brisbane last weekend. Last time these sides met, a whopping 12 different Demons registered hit the scoreboard as the Blues were humiliated by 109-points. However, with Carlton full of confidence under David Teague and Melbourne continuing to struggle, there could be an upset brewing.

 

Key Stat: Carlton has lost 14 of its last 15 matches at the MCG.

 

Tip: Melbourne

Best bet: Melbourne 1-39

Value bet: Clayton Oliver to record 35+ possessions

North Melbourne v St Kilda - Blundstone Arena - 3:20pm

North Melbourne will look to continue their mid-season resurgence when they host St Kilda at Blundstone Arena in Hobart on Sunday afternoon.

The Roos leapfrogged the Saints on the ladder with their 4th win in their last five outings after a comprehensive 44-point win over the Magpies last week in a game they dominated from start to finish. Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington were inspirational in the victory and will be looking to use their size to their advantage against a much slighter Saints midfield.

On the other hand, the Saints have lost three of their last four by an average margin of 53 points to continue the pressure on coach Alan Richardson. In their two previous trips to Blundstone Arena, the Saints have been humbled by the Roos by 37 and 59 points respectively and could be again headed for a similar result considering North Melbourne defeated the Saints in both meetings last season and have won 13 of their last 17 matches at their home from way, despite losing both matches at the venue this season.

 

Key Stat: North Melbourne has won seven of their last 10 matches against St Kilda during the day

 

Tip: North Melbourne

Best bet: North Melbourne 1-39

Value bet: North Melbourne 40+

GWS v Brisbane - Giants Stadium - 4:40pm

The match of the round is saved for last as the GWS Giants host the Brisbane Lions in a battle for a top four position. The teams enter Round 16 separated only by percentage with the Giants holding a healthy buffer over the chasing Lions, but both share a 9-5 win/loss record.

The Giants have had to wait 10 days for their opportunity to bounce back from a shock loss to the Bombers last Thursday, but are now back on their home ground where they are yet to taste defeat this season, kicking a score of 110+ in all four matches with an average winning margin of a whopping 74 points.

The Lions have a similar strong home record, but have struggled interstate losing four of their six matches matches outside of Queesnland. The Lions also haven’t defeated the Giants since 2013, losing their last six encounters to the AFL’s newest club.

This will be the first meeting since last season’s match at the Gabba where Jeremey Cameron knocked out Harris Andrews with a brutal clash, ultimately costing the current Coleman Medal leader five weeks suspension. Cameron has booted just five goals from his past three matches after a blistering start to the season and will look to recapture some form at a ground he’s kicked 16 goals from his four appearances this season.

 

Key Stat: GWS has a 22-10 (68.8%) W/L record playing as a home team after a loss from 2014 onwards.

 

Tip: GWS

Best bet: GWS 1-39

Value bet: Lachlan Whitfiled Most Disposals Group A

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