AFL Round 17: Saturday Afternoon Previews & Betting Tips
Sydney must take care of business against the Blues at home if they are to keep their finals hopes alive, Fremantle will try and bounce back from their horror show last week against the Hawks and the Dons and Roos square off in a huge eight-point game at Marvel Stadium.
Sydney v Carlton - SCG- 1:45pm
Sydney would be ruing last week’s 10-point loss to the Bombers, which could have ended their finals ambitions. Now with a 6-9 record after 16 rounds, the Swans would need to win at least six of their remaining seven games to be a realistic chance to sneak into September. That task starts on Saturday afternoon when they host the Blues at the SCG.
Carlton was also narrow losers at the MCG last week, going down to the Demons by five-points in a game that changed dramatically in the final term. Despite Carlton’s last quarter heroics, they came up just short of their fourth win of the season and remain 15th on the ladder.
Saturday’s contest is another great opportunity for David Teague to prove he’s the man to lead the club into next season and beyond having won two of his four matches in charge and losing the other two by under a goal. However, he will have to overcome a terrible recent record against the Swans, which includes 10 defeats in their last 11 meetings and are without a win at the SCG since 2011.
Key Stat: Sydney has won 12 of the past 15 fixtures between these teams dating back to 2010.
Best bet: Sydney 1-39
Value bet: Sydney -21.5/Over 158.5
Hawthorn v Fremantle - University of Tasmania Stadium- 2:10pm
Hawthorn snapped a four-game losing streak against Collingwood last week and now will be aiming to record consecutive wins for the first time all season when they host Fremantle at the University of Tasmania Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Three straight losses have seen the Dockers fall from 6th to 11th in recent weeks, with their 91-point drubbing at the hands of the Eagles last week a low-point in their club’s history where they were held to just two goals. Their task doesn’t get any easier this week playing a team they’ve only beaten twice in their last 16 attempts.
Making matters worse for Ross Lyon’s side is their 65.4 point average losing margin in their five matches against the Hawks in Launceston and must find a way to break their hoodoo if they’re to keep in touch with the top eight.
Hawthorn has a 33-4-1 W/L/D record in Launceston since 2010 and will be desperate to continue their dominance at their home away from home before a meeting against arch-rival Geelong awaits next week.
Key Stat: Fremantle has a 2-18 W/L record playing interstate after a loss from 2016 onwards.
Best bet: Hawthorn -14.5
Value bet: Hawthorn -14.5/Under 156.5
Essendon v North Melbourne - Marvel Stadium- 4:35pm
On the cusp of the top eight, two in form teams in Essendon and North Melbourne will go in search of an absolutely crucial victory when they square off at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The Bombers currently sit above the Kangaroos by one victory and percentage, which has largely been facilitated by their meeting on Good Friday that saw the Bombers trounce the Roos by 58-points. A huge amount has changed for North Melbourne since that listless display; the decision to replace Brad Scott with Rhyce
Shaw as head coach has changed their fortunes dramatically, having won five of their six matches since Shaw took over. Essendon has been similarly strong as far as results go recently, having now won four of its last five matches after downing Sydney by 10-points at the MCG last week. They have also enjoyed a good record against the Roos in recent seasons, winning each of their last three encounters thanks to some outstanding attacking football which has seen the Bombers average 124.3 points over those three encounters.
Key Stat: Essendon has won eight of its last nine matches at Marvel Stadium.
Best bet: Essendon 1-39
Value bet: Essendon -3.5/Over 167.5