AFL Round 19: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips
It’s now a must-win situation for both the Bulldogs and Dockers in a crucial clash at Marvel Stadium, the Cats will look to bounce back against the Swans in Sydney before the Bombers will seek to continue their surge up the ladder when they face the Suns.
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle - Marvel Stadium - 1:10pm
Locked together on eight wins, seasons are on the line when the Western Bulldogs host the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The teams were on the opposite end of results last week, with the Dockers snapping a four-game losing streak by the barest of margins in their one-point victory over the Swans, while the Bulldogs came up against a Brett Ratten-led St Kilda outfit who jumped out to a 35-point lead at quarter time, a margin they could never eat into as they had their three-game winning streak broken. The loss left the Bulldogs in 12th place on the ladder, four points and significant percentage behind the 8th placed Crows, meaning anything but a win on Sunday spells season over.
The Dockers are just one place above the Bulldogs and are in the same position where only a win will suffice. It will be the first meeting of the teams outside of Perth since 2016 where on that occasion the Bulldogs ran out dominant 65-point winners. It’s the only time in their last nine encounters they have beaten Fremantle, but will receive a big boost this week with the return of veteran Dale Morris from another ACL injury and the debut of a club legend’s son in Rhylee West.
Key Stat: Fremantle has a 4-11 W/L record as an away team in day matches from 2018 onwards.
Tip: Western Bulldogs
Best bet: Western Bulldogs -11.5
Value bet: Western Bulldogs -11.5/Over 162.5
Sydney v Geelong - SCG - 3:20pm
After alternating wins and losses over the past six weeks, the Cats will be keen to break out of their indifferent form and solidify top position on the ladder when they travel to Sydney to take on the Swans on Sunday afternoon.
Sydney will only be playing for pride after three straight losses has ruled them out of the finals hunt, marking the first time since 2009 and first under John Longmire that they won’t be apart of the September action.
Geelong fell to Hawthorn by 24-points last week, resigning them to their 3rd loss in the past five weeks. Over those five weeks since their bye, Geelong’s offensive output has dried up significantly. The Cats have averaged 70.4 points per game over the stretch, compared to a league-high 99.3 between rounds 1-12.
In comparison, the Swans have struggled for goals all season and rank 13th in the league for offence and drops to 17th over the past three weeks at 48.3 points per game, only better than Fremantle who they were defeated by a single point last week. The Cats have only played once at the SCG in the past five years, a 71-59 victory last season.
Key Stat: Geelong has a 4-1 line record against Sydney at the SCG from 2011 onwards.
Best bet: Geelong -13.5
Value bet: Geelong over 24.5
Gold Coast v Essendon - Metricon Stadium - 4:40pm
The hapless Gold Coast Suns will aim to break a 13-game losing streak when they return home to face the red hot Bombers.
Essendon has won six of their past seven to shoot up to 7th on the ladder with a win this week all but securing their place in September. It will be Essendon’s second straight interstate trip after conquering the Crows in Adelaide last Friday night where they overturned a five-goal deficit. Skipper Dyson Heppell returned for that clash, but is no certainty to make the flight north as a foot injury continues to plague him.
Ruckman Tom Bellchambers will still be missing, which the Suns will look to exploit with in form co-captain Jarrod Witts. The Suns have lost their last two matches to the Bombers at Metricon Stadium by an average of 38.5 points, exactly what the line is set at for this match and will become the longest priced winners of the season if they’re to cause the huge upset.
Key Stat: Essendon have covered the line in four of their last five matches against the Suns.
Best bet: Essendon 40+
Value bet: Either team under 15.5