AFL Round 21: Saturday Afternoon Match Previews & Betting Tips
Collingwood must defeat the struggling Demons if they’re to keep their top-four hopes alive, Port Adelaide likewise against Sydney if they’re to sneak into the eight before Brisbane look to consolidate a top-two spot when they face the Suns.
Melbourne v Collingwood - MCG - 1:45pm
Looking to keep the pressure on in the top-four race, Collingwood face the lowly placed Melbourne at the MCG.
The Magpies were in action against the only side lower than the Demons last weekend, resulting in a straightforward 69-point victory over the Suns. However, the win did come at a cost, as Mason Cox was added to an injury list that already threatens to cripple their season, with the American ruled out for the remainder of their campaign.
Melbourne’s season has been crippled by an inability to sustain a consistent four quarters of effort, as demonstrated by last week’s 33-point loss to Richmond, which saw Melbourne enter half-time just three points in arrears. It proved a far more straightforward outcome when the Magpies met the Demons on the Queen’s Birthday, as the favoured Magpies led from start to finish to triumph by 41-points. That result contributed to what is now an eight-match losing streak for Melbourne as an underdog.
Key Stat: Melbourne has lost each of its last eight matches as an underdog
Best bet: Collingwood 1-39
Value bet: Collingwood -14.5/Over 145.5
Port Adelaide v Sydney - Adelaide Oval - 2:10pm
With a chance to move back inside the top eight with victory, Port Adelaide will be desperate to back up their impressive performance from last week when they host Sydney at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon. The Power snapped a three-game losing streak in emphatic fashion as they downed a hapless Bombers side by 10 goals at Marvel Stadium to keep their finals hopes alive.
Meanwhile, Sydney was in action against GWS at GIANTS Stadium, however, were once again on the wrong end of a tight game as they lost their 5th straight match, three of which have been by 10-points or less. That 83-81 result proved a testament to the Swans’ ability to perform in the face of adversity, given it came in the absences of Dane Rampe, Lance Franklin, Jarrad McVeigh, Harry Cunningham, Nick Smith and Callum Sinclair. The Power will be hopeful none of those names return this weekend as they look to avoid becoming the first side in 2019 to lose five matches as a home favourite.
Key Stat: Port Adelaide has failed to cover the line in each of its last 12 matches following a win
Tip: Port Adelaide
Best bet: Port Adelaide 1-39
Value bet: Sydney +17.5/Over 146.5
Brisbane v Gold Coast - Gabba - 4:35pm
With percentage likely to come into play in the race to secure a top-two finish, Brisbane will look for that all-Important boost when they face the last-placed Gold Coast at the Gabba.
This will mark the second Q Clash of 2019, with the first coming in Round 6 at Metricon Stadium and resulting in a 59-point triumph for the Lions. Recent form indicates a similar result is on the cards as the Suns last week fell 120-51 to the Magpies side at the MCG last weekend. That loss was Gold Coast’s 15th on the bounce, as well as its third in five weeks by a margin of 11+ goals.
Comparatively, Brisbane has now won each of its last seven matches after overcoming the Bulldogs by 18-points at this venue on Sunday. That result saw Brisbane become the holder of the league’s highest scoring offence, a factor that should trouble the Suns’ league-worst defence.
Key Stat: Brisbane has won its last six matches at the Gabba by a margin of 1-39 points
Best bet: Gold Coast +51.5
Value bet: Brisbane 1-39