AFL Round 23: Sunday Match Previews & Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide - Mars Stadium - 1:10pm
With a finals berth on the line for both teams, the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide will go in search of what shapes as a season-defining victory when they face off at Mars Stadium in Ballarat on Sunday. It is a simple equation for the Bulldogs: win and they're in, while for the Crows will need to win rely on other results elsewhere in order to qualify for September. The former of those outcomes appears far more likely to occur on Sunday afternoon when taking into account the recent form of these clubs. The Bulldogs will enter the final round as one of the competition’s in-form teams, having downed the Bombers and Giants – both of whom have qualified for September – by a combined scoreline of 263-98. Comparatively, the Crows are closer to the bottom end of the form table, having now lost six of their last eight outings after falling by 66-points to the Magpies at home last weekend.
Key Stat: The home team has won eight of the last 10 matches between the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide.
Tip: Western Bulldogs
Best bet: Western Bulldogs -18.5
Value bet: Western Bulldogs 40+
Richmond v Brisbane - MCG - 3:20pm
September comes early to the MCG when Richmond and Brisbane play out a crucial encounter in relation to the finishing positions of a number of teams. A Collingwood victory against Essendon on Friday night would leave Richmond outside the top four entering this fixture, while Brisbane could be as low as third if West Coast defeats Hawthorn by a large margin and Geelong downs Carlton. Conversely, a win for the Tigers could propel them as high as third while victory for the Lions would secure the minor premiership. On form it remains difficult to split these sides; Brisbane is now undefeated in nine matches after beating Geelong by the barest of margins last weekend while Richmond has now won eight straight after overcoming West Coast by a goal in the match of the season. Furthermore, although the Tigers have not lost to the Lions in over a decade (12 straight), given the visitors have overcome a number of similar streaks in 2019, no result should be off the table.
Key Stat: Richmond has won each of its last six matches at the MCG by a margin of 1-39 points.
Best bet: Richmond 1-39
Value bet: Either team under 15.5
Port Adelaide v Fremantle - Adelaide Oval - 4:35pm
The home and away season will come to a close in Adelaide as Port Adelaide host Fremantle in a hope they still have something to play for. If earlier results go their way, in particular their crosstown rivals Adelaide is to defeating the Bulldogs in Ballarat. However, if that is not the case, the match will amount to a dead rubber it could be the Dockers who come out firing due to the sacking of Ross Lyon as head coach earlier in the week. Three times in 2019 has a coach moved on and his team went on to win its next match, however, in order to become the fourth side to complete such a result, Fremantle will need to overcome its dismal 2-8 record in away matches. For Port Adelaide this fixture provides the opportunity to fight for its own head coach, Ken Hinkley’s survival after he came under further scrutiny for his side’s awful 86-point loss to North Melbourne last weekend.
Key Stat: Six of Fremantle's last seven away matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Tip: Port Adelaide
Best bet: Under 165.5 total match points
Value bet: Travis Boak Most Disposals Group A