This Weekend's 5 Best Bets - 2 March
This weekend's 5 best bets cover UFC 235, Surround Stakes, Premier League & Australian Cup.
Horse Racing – Randwick Race 7 Surround Stakes
The Tip: Pohutukawa
Why: Was a good thing beaten first-up in the Light Fingers when Prebble was bolting with nowhere to go, then sliced up the inside to record the best final 200m into 3rd. Stripping fitter second-up after two typically quiet trials, 1400m on a soft track look her absolute ideal conditions. Prebble to McDonald is a huge positive for a Cummings yard that’s on fire at present.
Greyhounds – The Meadows Race 6 Australian Cup
The Tip: My Redeemer
Why: Melbourne Cup champ My Redeemer is a big race specialist has drawn perfectly in two. If he doesn’t lead he is also a determined chaser as evidenced by his heat win last week when grabbing the leader Shima Breeze on straightening.
His 50 starts have produced 25 victories. Has won four times from box two and is a four time winner at the track/distance.
Premier League – Spurs v Arsenal
The Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Why: 85% of the Gunners’ away games have seen over 2.5 goals scored, while their BTTS rate is a monstrous 92%; there’s never any shortage of excitement.
Spurs’ over-2.5-rate is still a fairly solid 62% at Wembley, and while some derbies can be cagey (and pretty dull), I can see a similarly entertaining affair to that cracking six-goal thriller we saw at The Emirates back in December.
UFC 235 – Jon Jones v Anthony Smith
The Tip: Jon Jones by Submisison
Why: Jones will seek to use his length and height to work Smith until he’s ready to step in and go to work with his clinical striking. At some point in probably the first two rounds I think he’s going to clip Smith and then go in for a grappling exchange to see him off on the floor.
Once Smith finds himself in Jon’s world on the mat, Jones will be able to pick and choose whether he wants the sub or TKO victory. I’m going with submission as there is a little more value.
Premier League – Everton v Liverpool
The Tip: Under 2.5 Goals
Why: Goals are generally at a premium in the Merseyside Derby. So rarely does this fixture live up to its billing, and I’m expecting another dull derby.
We’ve seen just three goals in the last four matches at Goodison Park between these two. Liverpool’s away games have seen over 2.5 goals scored just 43% of the time.