UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade - Betting Preview

Expert Picks and Analysis for this weekend's UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade

Christian Broughton
 | 
Fri, 10 May, 12:44 PM

When: Sunday, May 12th 2019

What Time: Main Card: from 12 pm AEST on Pay-Per-View

Prelims: from 10 am ET on ESPN

Early Prelims: from 8:15 am on ESPN+

Where: Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

 

Christian Broughton - UFC Tips Record:

| P/L: +4.29u | ROI:  15.31% |

 

Sunday’s UFC is the year’s second Brazil card, and it comes straight out of Rio de Janeiro! There are fun fights up and down the billing, with Brazilian legends such as Thiago Santos, Jose Aldo & Anderson Silva fighting in their home nation. It may not jump out as the ‘must watch card of the year’, but this card has the making to be one of the year’s most entertaining. Let’s jump into this week’s picks for UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade! 

Prelim Bout: Warlley Alves vs. Sérgio “The Panther” Moraes

Division: Welterweight (77 kg)

Records: Warlley Alves (12-3-0) vs. Sérgio “The Panther” Moraes (14-4-1)

On the card's early prelims, we have two highly skilled BJJ black belts going toe-to-toe. To this point, Warlley Alves has ridden his skills on the mat to secure either decision wins or submissions. Largely his struggles in fights have come from becoming gassed when he faces fighters with better cardio and endurance. Unfortunately for Alves, this is one of those fights, where the match-up isn’t a favourable one for him. Sérgio Moraes is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the UFC, boasting a 3rd degree black belt. I expect the striking to be about even, with Alves likely to have a slight edge, but due to Moraes’ grappling and stamina advantage, he should get the better of Alves as he fatigues throughout the fight. It’s a close one, but in my opinion, Moraes should arguably be the slight favourite, so we’re going to take the plus number on him to get the better of his fellow countryman @$2.20*. 

Tip: Sérgio Moraes

Prelim/Main Card Multi:

BJ Penn returns to the cage to face another long-time UFC veteran in “The Carpenter” Clay Guida. If you weren’t aware how long Penn’s been fighting for, following this weekend he’ll have competed in UFC 37, UFC 137 & UFC 237. Although Penn is a legend of the sport, there is no overlooking that he hasn’t secured a win in any of his bouts since the back end of 2010, having gone 0-6-1, with 3 of his last 4 being stoppage loses.

 

Clay Guida, however, has been up and down as of late but still appears to be going strong at the back end of his career. The Carpenter should be looking to put a pace on Penn throughout the fight and Penn does have ways to win inside the distance, although unlikely. The two of them have a combined age of 77, which has to be one of the highest ever. With age and declining abilities to take damage, we’re taking this one to end within the 15 minutes @$1.52*. 

 

1st Leg of Multi: Fight doesn't go the distance

Brazilian slugger Thiago Alves returns to the cage to fight the relative Argentine newcomer in Laureano Staropoli, in a fight that promises action. Alves has always been a brawler and despite him now being 35 years of age, he still loves to swing and bang.

Staropoli has only had one fight within the UFC, but he too doesn’t hold back from throwing down in the cage. Although Staropoli won his last bout, his opponent Hector Aldana is as tough as a $2 dollar steak.

With Staropoli’s tendencies to throw recklessly and attempt flashy techniques, I expect him to either clip the now seemingly ‘chinny’ Alves or leave himself open to a counter-shot from the “Pitbull”. I’m a little surprised that the oddsmakers favour this one to go to the scorecards, but these gentlemen are going to be looking for the finish on Saturday evening, this is going to be the second and final leg of out Doesn’t Go the Distance parlay @ $2.30*.

 

2nd Leg of Multi: Fight doesn't go the distance

Main Event: Rose 'Thug' Namajunas vs. #1 Jéssica 'Bate Estaca' Andrade

Division: Women’s Strawweight (52kg)

Records: (C) Rose “Thug” Namajunas (8-3-0) vs. #1 Jéssica "Bate Estaca" Andrade (19-6-0)

Rio’s main event is going to be one of the rare occasions where we get to see the No.1 ranked contender fight for UFC gold, and I can’t wait! “Thug” Rose has been out of action for over 13 months now following her back to back victories over former ‘strawweight queen’ Joanna Jędrzejczyk. She returns to the octagon with a few questions looming over her about her willingness to compete having taken such a long break for personal reasons. This seems to be just criticism, but taking this fight and in Brazil shows strength and I wouldn’t be putting my money on her to quit in a fight just yet, especially not following on from her last two outstanding victories.

Andrade will be the hometown fighter, with the Brazilian fans cheering her on all the way. She’s looked incredible ever since moving down to strawweight, only experiencing one decision loss to the aforementioned former champion Jędrzejczyk. Joanna presented the Brazilian with fast-paced movement and accurate striking, much like the game plan I’d expect Rose to come in with.

Both have shown decent submission games, which could throw a spanner in the works, but with them, both having pretty good cardio, I’d imagine that this shouldn’t be too much of a concern unless Namajunas was to get the back of Andrade. It’s a tough one to call, but I think too much is being made of Andrade’s power following her impressive knockout of Karolina Kowalkiewicz, but if Namajunas can stand-up to Jessica’s pressure, I don’t see a KO/TKO finish coming.

My thoughts are that Rose will edge out the fight, but with Andrade being the Brazilian fighter in Brazil, I wouldn’t be surprised if she’d take the decision despite Rose doing slightly more. This is a fight that anything could really happen as there’s a lot of unknowns, but @$2.40*, there’s undeniable value on it going to decision.

Tip: Fight Goes the Distance

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