Sedgefield remains the staple diet for the Wyndham and it is an event which lends itself to the punter with the intricacies of the course. It is a short par 70 layout which I believe favours the more accurate golfer. Fairways and proximity to the hole are two stats I will look to this week in trying to narrow down my search for a winner. I've always felt a solid wedge game here translates to good scores and with soft conditions awaiting the golfers it could be target practice if you hit the fairways from the tee. It is worth noting that Stenson, Kim, Love and Simpson have all won this event in recent years and also won at Sawgrass.
Where better to start this weeks analysis with the tournament jolly WEBB SIMPSON. He rates as a solid a each-way play for me this week. Simpsons form lines here read 3-72-6-5-11-22-1-8 since 2010. Sedgefield is a place where he has continued to perform well upon despite his game being in the gutter for his standard. Webb has returned his game to its former glory with a win at the Players this season and with four top 20s posted in the majors this year he has to be considered as one of the most consistent performers all season.
He played very well last week in St Louis with the course just playing probably a bit too long for his liking. Nobody has course form in the field like him here and I think the bookmaker should have him priced at a couple of pts lower than what he is. He ranks high enough in the stats I'm looking to this week with specific good results from 125-150 yards which will be the main distance this week.
Finishing 5th and 6th in 2014 and 2015 were huge efforts given he was not hitting the heights of a few years previous. 3rd last year was on his road to recovery and given he was 25/1 last year I actually think half that price isn't enough of a cut. Snedeker slots in as 4th favourite here and he is doing next to nothing, but has course form to speak of. Negatives surround Stenson and Matsuyama whilst Niemann (a very lively runner) is still to gain his first victory. Everything points to a green light event for Webb.
I don't think RAFA CABRERA-BELLO is far away from another victory, and maybe a big one so with many around him in the market unconvincing of late I think he is worthy of some support. He finished extremely well last week to finish 10th and previously slotted inside the top 20 at Firestone.
He is another who excels on the tracks that reward accuracy and given he ranks inside the top 20 from 125 yards approaches I think he ticks a lot of boxes. He doesn't win often enough but just like Fleetwood and Noren and the last couple of years I think he will hit a purple patch and it could start this week. His best finishes in events are usually birdie fests and this is no different with 20 under or above looking like the winning mark. His price is about right but I think he will go well.
SERGIO GARCIA is one worth considering this week given he is inside the top 25 in the world and lines up at $41. He is sliding down the rankings with a poor year for his standard but when he has goals to work towards Garcia can be a different animal. He rallied in 2012 when on the fringes of the European Ryder Cup side to win this event and secure his place. He needs another performance here this week but has another goal to work towards also. He currently lies 131st in the Fedex rankings and witht he top 125 getting into the Northern Trust next week he needs a decent showing.
For me playing Garcia is all about motivation. He managed a win in Spain at the back end of last season despite some poor form surrounding it. Playing in front of his home crowd has always excited the Spaniard and his results show it. Heading into this week he has no form to show bar two top 15 finishes in Germany and France 6 or so weeks ago. I am prepared to take the risk at the price that the Ryder Cup and Fedex motivation is enough for him to get off his arse and play some solid golf.
The talented NICK WATNEY is spluttering his way to some kind of recovery in his career and at 3 figure prices this week must be supported. He ranks inside the top 15 in 125 yard approach stat and is a streaky enough putter on his day to make the required birdies to contend here. 5th here in 2014 was his best result and some other results can be largely ignored due to the downturn in his career. Nevertheless he is 6 time winner on the tour and coming back to some sort of form. He finished a close 2nd in the wells Fargo earlier in the year and he impressed me how he hung around the top despite some setbacks over the weekend. It was enough evidence for me that he could win again soon and with five cuts made on the trot there are enough positives for me to support at triple figure odds. Also has a top 5 finish at the Players.
Finally I'll have a small speculative bet on MATT FITZPATRICK . His wins sometimes spring out of nowhere, with the most recent win at Crans coming off the back of 54-MC-50-44. Similar figures apply to the run in to this event but I think it is a course on which his game could translate. Crans is just like that and it was no surprise to see him at the top of that leaderboard again. This is his first jaunt to the Wyndham but his accurate driving and streaky putting could give him a leg up here. A player who I consider to be a future major winner and still a lot of developing to do. I'll happily play speculatively at a top price of $61*.