Epsom Day is upon us at Randwick and we have nine great races ahead of us.
The weather is fine and the track is good. The rail is 3m for the circumference.
Quaddie Races – 6,7,8,9
Skinny Play: 1,6 – 2,4,9,10 – 1,2,5 – 4,11,12,13
Wide Play: 1,6 - 1,2,4,9,10,11 – 1,2,3,4,5,7,8 – 4,11,12,13
BEST BET – R5, No1 ASTERN
NEXT BEST – R1, No5 JORDA
BEST ROUGHIE – R8, No1 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
Race 1 12:20pm KEENELAND GIMCRACK STAKES 1000m
2yo races start the season here and it’s the first time we’ve seen them on the racetrack. Thankfully all runners have trialled and we get a good leg-up there.
JORDA (NEXT BEST BET) was the best of the triallers at Randwick on the 19th September. She looks to be a professional filly. Godolphin have a great record in this race and this filly should be hard to beat.
SELECTIONS: No 5 JORDA, No 1 Chain Of Fools, No 8 Madame Moustache, No 4 Greater Good
VALUE RUNNER: No 8 Madame Moustache
Race 2 12:55pm NEWGATE BREEDERS' PLATE 1000m
CONDOR HEROES was the most dominant trial winner of the day on the 19th at Randwick. He ran a slick time and looks to be a natural 2yo and should be super hard to beat.
SHOWTIME wasn’t at all knocked around in his trial and looked to have a lot to give if the jockey wanted to let him go. From the wide gate he will have to push forward and with any luck he will be in the finish.
BOWERMAN didn’t get the fastest of times at the trials, but there was something to like about him. He looks to have a lot of class on his side and is a well-bred commodity.
KHAN again trialled well at the Randwick set. He railed up and took a gap and worked through it well for what was a nice win. He should get a good run from gate (1) and should be thereabouts.
SELECTIONS: No 2 CONDOR HEROES, No 11 Showtime, No 1 Bowerman, No 5 Khan
VALUE RUNNER: No 11 Showtime
Race 3 1:30pm APN OUTDOOR CRAVEN PLATE 2000m
I’m expecting Raw Impulse to be scratched and he may run at Flemington on Sunday.
This looks to be a race in two here, with SPIRITJIM and IT’S SOMEWHAT, who both clashed behind Winx last start in the George Main. IT’S SOMEWHAT had fitness on his side after having had a previous run leading in, while SPIRITJIM was first-up and closed off well after he was left flat-footed at the top of the straight. What I liked about that was, 100m after the line, SPIRITJIM was in front of the two placegetters and the step up to 2000m second-up looks ideal here.
This will be a battle of tactics, with Bowman and McDonald going head-to-head and whoever rides the better race wins.
SELECTIONS: No 2 SPIRITJIM, No 1 It’s Somewhat, No 7 Bring Luck, No 3 Hi World
VALUE RUNNER: No 2 Spiritjim
Race 4 2:05pm TAB DULCIFY QUALITY 1600m
BRING ME THE BLING looks well-suited on the back-up here. She hit the line well and the step up to 1600m looks perfect. Berry jumping back aboard is an added bonus and she has her chance.
OCTAVIAN AUGUSTUS probably should have won first-up when well supported. He got buried back on the fence and didn’t get any luck when he needed it. From barrier (1) with Williams he will need some luck from the barrier again.
EARTH may finally live up to the wraps that he had early days now that he has a win on the board. Hopefully that can give him some confidence as he hit the line well over the 1300m. He wasn’t too far off some nice horses in Brisbane last preparation and has a chance here.
CALABASAS comes out of what looks to be a nice race last start at Newcastle and has a big weight to contend with here and has to be given a chance.
SELECTIONS: No 6 BRING ME THE BLING, No 3 Octavian Augustus, No 2 Earth, No 1 Calabasas
VALUE RUNNER: No 2 Earth
Race 5 2:40pm THE STAR ROMAN CONSUL 1200m
Even off the setback and missing the Caulfield Guineas prelude I think that ASTERN is much better suited back to 1200m here and is the BEST BET of the day. He is short, but he should be sweet, similar to Exosphere last year. He was a dominant winner of the Golden Rose and the form has stacked up well out of that. The wide gate is no issue as McDonald should have him in clear air out of trouble and if he does have that clear passage he will put a gap on this field.
SELECTIONS: No 1 ASTERN, No 2 Capitalist, No 5 Guard Of Honour, No 7 Flash Fibian
VALUE RUNNER: No 5 Guard Of Honour
Race 6 3:20pm SYDNEY AIRPORT FLIGHT STAKES 1600m
YANKEE ROSE Up to the mile suits and back to fillies grade here. She was an unexpected leader last start and I expect her to take a sit here. She trialled brilliantly last Friday.
GLOBAL GLAMOUR was caught in the wrong part of the track in both runs this time in; she has had to do it tough. Getting up to the mile now should suit and if she has some luck here, she will be in the finish.
SELECTIONS: No 1 Yankee Rose, No 6 Global Glamour, No 5 Sezanne
VALUE RUNNER: No 6 Global Glamour
Race 7 4:00pm TAB EPSOM HANDICAP 1600m
This year’s Epsom is extremely even. If you are to find the winner there is value there for the punters. That being said, I’m finding it difficult to split both HAURAKI and HAPPY CLAPPER. I am leaning to HAURAKI here as he has the best lead-up run of this lot. He got as close to Winx as anyone has in the last 12 months. He has had that tough 1600m run here and drops back to Handicap level and has a winnable weight. He has come back a different horse this time in and wants to win.
HAPPY CLAPPER has come through the Handicaps this time in, in a tactic to avoid Winx. He has carried big weights in both of his runs this time in and drops to 55 here. His record at the Randwick mile is very imposing and there is a sense of timing about him here.
MCCREERY has the perfect set-up for a Chris Waller “Randwick Mile” win here coming off the booming win over 2000m and dropping back to 1600m for the Grand Final. The win last start was dominant and the form has stacked up well from that race. He is owned in the same interests that He’s Your Man was, who had the exact same set up and with 51.5kgs he has a chance.
HEAVENS ABOVE has been targeted at this race all preparation and the plan to back up from the Golden Pendant into this race with 51kgs has always been the plan. She has performed well at the Randwick mile before and Tim Martin’s horses are currently flying and she has her chance.
VANBRUGH has the best weight swing of all horses coming out of the George Main getting down to just 51kgs. He is going much better than his form suggests and deserves a chance.
SELECTIONS: No 2 HAURAKI, No 4 Happy Clapper, No 9 Mccreery, No 10 Heavens Above, No 11 Vanbrugh
VALUE RUNNER: No 10 Heavens Above
Race 8 4:40pm MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS METROPOLITAN 2400m
With the jockey change and the way he has been hitting the line this time in, I’m happy to go with WHO SHOT THEBARMAN as my BEST ROUGHIE of the day. He has hit the line well in all runs this time in and has Bowman here. When he was last at 2400m he was just touched off by Preferment in the BMW. He looks to have been set for this race and I’m happy to side with him here.
STORM THE STARS has hit the line well in both runs this time in and looks as if he has been wanting the 2400m. He had big wraps on him when he came across from Europe and he looks to have flourished with a first racing preparation and a spell. He gets in with a winnable weight getting back to handicaps and has Avdulla to stand over him.
SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD is well suited second-up, up to the 2400m here. He comes through the Mccreery race which looks to be a strong form race on the day. He drops 4.5kgs for that effort and up to the 2400m is his preferred distance. His form in the autumn is good enough for here.
MAGIC HURRICANE was a dominant winner of this race last year and looks to be well on track to go back-to-back here. His three runs this time in have been very good pointers that he has been getting ready for this. He has had two runs over 2000m with big weights to get him ready and now with 54.5kg he has his chance.
SELECTIONS: No 1 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, No 2 Storm The Stars, No 5 Sir John Hawkwood, No 4 Magic Hurricane
VALUE RUNNER: No 1 Who Shot Thebarman
Race 9 5:20pm SANTOS COFFEE PREMIERE STAKES 1200m
This is a cracking race to finish the day off. Any number of horses could win the race. That being said, I really liked the run of KAEPERNICK first-up. He was in the wrong part of the track and ran home in one of the quickest sectionals of the day there. Reith is off and Brown gets aboard here. He is drawn to get a good run and if he gets luck in the straight he could well blow them away.
I thought that ENGLISH was a touch disappointing first-up. I expected her to round them up turning into the straight, but she was too far off them and the winner ran home in 34, so it was hard to make up that ground. Her effort was quite good when digging deeper. Second-up last time in she got a mile off them in the Galaxy and ran a sub-33 second section. If she is in touch rounding the turn, look out.
SOUTHERN LEGEND back to the 1200m is appealing here. He comes out of what will be a hot race and was just found wanting when jumping from 1000-1300m second-up. Clark jumps off Takedown to stay on Southern Legend here and that’s a big pointer for me.
TAKEDOWN was a big winner first-up. It’s impossible to knock him as he did it at both ends of the race. Up to 1200m no concern. Shinn on is no knock and his form has stacked up fantastically in the last six months.
SELECTIONS: No 11 KAEPERNICK, No 13 English, No 12 Southern Legend, No 4 Takedown
VALUE RUNNER: No 11 Kaepernick