Warrnambool Betting Preview
Racing returns to Warrnambool after having over a month away from this track.
Mon, 3 Oct, 12:00 AM
The last time they raced here it was a Heavy 10 and the conditions made it tough to find a winner.
The rail is at nine metres for this meeting and a Heavy 8 is the tip with further rain and possible storms forecast so it could be a quagmire.
BEST BET: R4 No3 Terindah.
NEXT BEST BET: R6 No5 Fabulonh.
BEST ROUGHIE: R8 No3 Lavish Mactavish.
QUADDIES Races: 5-6-7-8
SKINNY PLAY: 2,4,7,9 / 5,6,8 / 1,2,4,5 / 3,6,7,13
WIDE PLAY: 2,3,4,7,8,9 / 4,5,6,7,8 / 1,2,4,7 / 3,4,5,6,7,9,13
R1 1.30pm COAST FM MONKEY & THE BIG FELLA SV MAIDEN PLATE 2053m
AROHATA is a half-sister to New Zealand Derby winner Rangipo. She is by High Chaparral so the wet track should not prove an obstacle and the rise in distance will suit. She fought hard when running second over 1750m in a maiden at Geelong last start and respected.
HIGH ROLLA is a son of High Chaparral and he should like the wet conditions. He ran on a Heavy 8 when finishing a well-beaten third over 1800m in the provincials at $4.60 and would expect the step up in distance to suit here.
THE BANANA STAND was racing fresh when he ran fourth in the same race as Arohata over 1750m at Geelong on September 25. Chris Symons will be replaced by leading jockey Michael Walker and is a chance in a tough maiden.
TWO SQUARE can improve on her sixth in the same race as Arohata over 1750m at Geelong on September 25. Leading apprentice Ben Allen keeps the ride and the extra distance may suit.
SELECTIONS: No10 AROHATA, No1 High Rolla, No6 The Banana Stand, No12 Two Square.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 The Banana Stand.
R2 2pm MIDFIELD GROUP MAIDEN PLATE 1400m
ST FRANCO is a well-bred colt by Fastnet Rock from Veronica Franco, who was a Group 3 winner over 1600m. Would expect natural improvement on his debut ¾ of a length second over 1209m at Swan Hill on September 23 and he has a new rider in Michael Walker.
NEW GRADUATE has been a model of consistency with five placings at seven starts. He has been freshed for this after running third over 1200m at Pakenham on September 3. Top provincial jockey Dean Yendall is the new rider and he has drawn well in (6).
PIPED ABOARD is a beautifully bred mare by Fastnet Rock and she will be improved having her third start here after a close third over 1200m at Pakenham on September 17. She was liked in the betting last start at $2.10.
PERCIVALL POT has been placed on a wet track. He has not raced since being stepped up to 2000m at Arat at his last start on May 19 but he has been placed twice at four starts and has claims.
SELECTIONS: No10 ST FRANCO, No6 New Graduate, No8 Piped Aboard, No4 Percivall Pot.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 New Graduate.
R3 2.30pm SUNGOLD MILK MAIDEN PLATE 1200m
GRATWICK will be improved sharply on his first-up run when running third at the tight odds of $1.65 over 1100m in the provincials on September 24. He is out of the premier stables of Darren Weir and has top Melbourne jockey Michael Walker on board.
HIGH VALLEY is by High Chaparral and he should be cosy in the wet conditions. He is fresh having not run since finishing fifth over 1900m at Geelong on July 5. Leading provincial rider Dean Yendall takes the reins.
BORRIS IN OSSORY is one that may improve. He was at $51 last start when finishing fifth over 1200m at Murtoa on September 24. He was headed in the straight but did not throw in the bat and has senior rider Linda Meech to partner.
STREICA is a locally trained three-year-old making his debut. He is by Stryker and has Melbourne Cup winning jockey Michelle Payne riding and hails from an astute stable. There are five debutantes in this race and no exposed form.
SELECTIONS: No8 GRATWICK, No2 High Valley, No12 Borris In Ossory, No9 Streica.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 High Valley.
R4 3pm TAB.COM.AU SV THREE-YEARS-OLD BM64 HANDICAP 1100m
TERINDAH (Best Bet) hails from the stables of in-form trainer Robbie Griffiths. He was at vice-like odds at $1.35 last start when he broke through for an outstanding maiden win over 1100m at Kilmore. That was on a Heavy 8 track and he is going to meet the same conditions here. Stable jockey Matthew Allen who rode The Quarterback to a brilliant first-up win at Flemington on Sunday is the new pilot.
SELECTIONS: No3 TERINDAH, No2 Falcool, No1 If You Will, No6 In Contempt.
VALUE RUNNER: No2 Falcool.
R5 3.30pm SOVEREIGN RESORT HANDICAP 1200m
CLONMEL is a lightly-raced five-year-old who has handled the sodden conditions in the past. He has won and been placed second at four starts. He has not raced for 80 days so will be nice and fresh for his assault here and has top provincial rider Linda Meech to pilot.
WRITTEN ERA will appreciate the wet track here. Was a smart winner over 1200m at Castlemaine on September 19 and has apprentice Jordan Childs steering her again in a tougher race but she does like the wet.
LICORICE BULLET has a good strike-rate and will be handy here. He ran a distant second to I Am The Dark at his last start over 1200m at Swan Hill on September 13. Nos 1 stable jockey Brad Rawiller is the new rider.
BULLYWOLFE has the ability to box seat and he does love a wet track. He ran sixth over 1200m at his last start at Geelong on September 3. Has been freshened for his return here.
SELECTIONS: No8 CLONMEL, No9 Written Era, No4 Licorice Bullet, No2 Bullywolfe.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 Licorice Bullet.
R6 4pm MELBOURNE MARRIOTT HOTEL BM70 HANDICAP 1400m
FABULONH (Next Best Bet) is a most honest sprinter and looms as a strong chance here after his close third over 1200m at Pakenham on September 15. From eight starts he has won twice and finished in the placings five times. He has a superior draw in gate (4) here and has won at Sandown on a bog track so the wet conditions here make appeal. May get better than $3.20 at his last start but will be well respected by bookmakers.
SELECTIONS: No5 FABULONH, No6 Natural Achiever, No7 Princely Blaze, No8 Hell Of An Effort.
VALUE RUNNER: No6 Natural Achiever.
R7 4.30pm SCHWEPPES BM64 HANDICAP 1700m
SUPER HAZE is a son of High Chaparral so he should like the wet conditions. He ran a solid first-up second over1512m at Gawler on September 7. He is from the stables of Tony McEvoy and has not been brought across the border for the outing.
SIGA LA VACA will be super fit now and expect a positive effort on his last-start second over 1900m at Geelong on September 16. Damien Oliver has an able replacement in Dean Yendall and drawn well in (3).
LOVEHEART LASS fought hard at her second start back from a spell when running a close second over 1600m at Pakenham on September 17. She drops 2.5kg here so gets some relief and will be strongly fancied in betting
MAC’S METTLE was the plunge horse last start when backed from $8 into $4 and went close but not close enough, finishing third over 1600m at Pakenham on September 17. Been placed at past five starts.
SELECTIONS: No2 SUPER HAZE, No1 Siga La Vaca, No7 Loveheart Lass, No5 Mac’s Mettle.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 Loveheart Lass.
R8 5pm WARRNAMBOOL TOYOTA OAKS DAY NOV 3 BM70 HANDICAP 2053m
LAVISH MACTAVISH is a nice type on the way up. He won with 61kg over 1800m at Castlemaine on September 19. He has won at his past two starts, defying a betting drift from $4.40 to $6 to do so last start. Drops to 57kg from 60kg.
KNIGHT STAR is the stable-mate to Lavish Mactavish and can give trainer Darren Weir a quinella here. He was a $5 favourite when winning over 2050m at Moonee Valley on September 23. Brad Rawiller is the new rider.
BAJA MOON is a swimmer so the conditions here are perfect. He has won at his past two starts on heavy tracks including a last-start 2 ¼ length victory at Swan Hill on September 13.
JUST CALL ME BRUCE won impressively when striding to a 2 ¼ length victory over2016m on a Soft 6 at Morphettville on September 17. That was an easy win but he does go up 3kg to 58.5kg here.
SELECTIONS: No3 LAVISH MACTAVISH, No7 Knight Star, No13 Baja Moon, No6 Just Call Me Bruce.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 Lavish Mactavish.