BEST BET: R7 No2 Keen Array
NEXT BEST BET: R4 No3 Pilote D’essai
BEST ROUGHIE: R8 No14 Dulverton
QUADDIES Races: 5-6-7-8
SKINNY PLAY: 3,6,7,9,12 / 1,4,5,6,12 / 1,2,3,4,9 / 1,3,4,7,14,18
WIDE PLAY: 2,3,6,7,8,121,3,17 / 1,2,4,5,6,8,12 / 1,2,3,4,5,7,9 / 1,2,3,4,6,7,9,12,14,16,18
GRAND DREAMER is a talented galloper who was swamped late when finishing a close second to Sly Romance over 1600m at Moonee Valley on September 23. Dwayne Dunn is riding in absolute best form and the horse rises a kilo to 58kg. Looks hard to beat.
THE THUG drops back in distance here off his last start where he hit the front at the 200m and went to the line strongly over 2100m at Sandown on September 3. Damian Lane is riding again and he should be strong at the finish.
DATA POINT owes his backers as he went down as an easing $2.35 favourite when running second over 1421m at Sale on September 21. There has been a jockey change, with Luke Nolen replacing apprentice Jake Bayliss in a bid to lift him first past the post.
PORTION CONTROL finished hard in a driving finish to win the Inglis Cup (2900m) here at his last start on September 24. Craig Williams retains the mount and he goes up 1.5kg to 57.5kg but should be prominent with a soft run.
SELECTIONS: No1 GRAND DREAMER, No3 The Thug, No11 Data Point, No5 Portion Control.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 Portion Control.
CELLARMAN drops back to his right class after being outclassed when finishing fourth in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill last start on September 24. He gets Sydney’s top jockey as the new rider and should prove hard to get past here.
SMART AS YOU THINK gave a strong effort when he challenged but could not hold the leader when finishing second over 1600m at Morphettville on September 10. Jamie Mott is the new rider and he is fairly weighted at 57.5kg.
GRAN TRYPHENA had the perfect career start to win a 1400m maiden at Pakenham on September 18. He fought hard to wear down the leader and score a narrow victory, defying a betting drift from $4 to $7. Dwayne Dunn sticks here and would respect.
THEANSWERMYFRIEND stormed home late and narrowly failed to catch the leader when running second in a 1600m maiden at Pakenham on September 18. He looms with plenty of upside and can repay the punters who took the short odds of $2.45 last time.
SELECTIONS: No1 CELLARMAN, No4 Smart As You Think, No7 Gran Tryphena, No6 Theanswermyfriend.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 Gran Tryphena.
OUR CENTURY is a Northern Hemisphere import who was solid first-up when running fifth over 1700m here on September 24. He is a lightly-raced five-year-old Irish gelding who will appreciate the extra distance here second-up.
FIRENZE is a tough stayer out of the Darren Weir camp. He won with a leg in the air at his last start over 2500m at Moonee Valley on September 23. Stable jockey Brad Rawiller rides here at 57.kg and he will be strong.
FOUR CARAT fought on well when running third over 2000m at Rosehill last start on September 24. He is from the yard of Chris Waller and has top Sydney hoop Hugh Bowman to steer. He drops 4kg to 55.5kg.
HONEY STEEL’S GOLD seems to have been switched back on by a stint over the hurdles where he raced very well. Latest he chased well to finish third over 2400m at Morphettville on October 1. He is race tough.
SELECTIONS: No2 OUR CENTURY, No5 Firenze, No7 Four Carat, No9 Honey Steel’s Gold.
VALUE RUNNER: Honey Steel’s Gold.
PILOTE D’ESSAI (Next Best Bet) gets a big drop in class here after finishing fifth to Royal Rapture over 1700m at Flemington on September 10. Royal Rapture has continued on his merry way. This horse was the $2.60 favourite that day and he can make amends against easier opposition here. Dwayne Dunn rides and makes plenty of appeal despite going up in weight to 59kg.
SELECTIONS: No3 PILOTE D’ESSAI, No6 Electric Fusion, No9 Plot The Course, No10 Unbreakable.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 Plot The Course.
VOSTOK beat some smart types when he won over 1514m at Moonee Valley last start on September 3. He gets Hugh Bowman here as the new rider replacing Damien Oliver and drops a kilo to 57kg. The drawback is his wide alley (16).
MURT THE FLIRT will be improved on his first start back from a let up when finishing third over 1200m at Pakenham on September 30. He gets a new rider with Chris Symons on board and weight relief dropping 3kg to 58kg.
SOVEREIGN NATION ran a big race when fresh only to be run down by a smart New Zealander when finishing second over 1440m here on October 1. He has a wide alley (12) but stable jockey Michael Walker knows the horse.
CHARLEVOIX was the $4 favourite in the SA Derby (2500m) at his last start on May 14 when finishing fourth to Howard Be Thy Name. He has a perfect record when racing fresh and Luke Nolen goes back on board.
SELECTIONS: No9 VOSTOK, No6 Murt The Flirt, No3 Sovereign Nation, No12 Charlevoix.
VALUE RUNNER: No12 Charlevoix.
MERRIEST won the Atlantic Jewel stakes at $26 before running a strong third to Selenia in a Group 3 over 1200m at Moonee Valley on September 23. She was scratched from last Saturday in a Listed race to run here and gets a new rider, with Nicholas Hall replacing Damien Oliver who rides Flying Artie.
FLYING ARTIE is a Group 1 placegetter racing first-up. He ran third to Capitalist in the Golden Slipper Stakes (1200m) at his last start on March 19. He also was placed in the Blue Diamond Stakes so he is a very smart type. Damien Oliver will ride the three-year-old here.
KEN’S DREAM is a lightly-raced colt who has won twice and been placed second at his other start. Last time he fought hard when facing defeat for the first time over 1200m at Moonee Valley on September 30. Dean Yendall keeps the ride.
BARTHELONA has an impeccable record of three starts for three wins so can’t fault. He was the $4.20 favourite here last start when winning narrowly over 1100m on September 17. Ryan Maloney keeps the ride and he is slightly better drawn in gate (9) compared to (11) last start.
SELECTIONS: No12 MERRIEST, No1 Flying Artie, No4 Ken‘s Dream, No5 Barthelona.
VALUE RUNNER: No12 Merriest.
KEEN ARRAY (Best Bet) had to dig deep to hold out Well Sprung to win the Testa Rossa Stakes 1200m here on September 17. He does go up a fair bit in weight to 59kg but he is a class winner and drops in class here. Leading jockey Dwayne Dunn will offset the weight increase and his stable won a Group 1 last Saturday so they are hot.
SELECTIONS: No2 KEEN ARRAY, No3 Illustrious Lad, No4 Clearly Innocent, No9 Sebring Sun.
VALUE RUNNER: No9 Sebring Sun.
ALASKAN ROSE beat smart mares French Emotion and Miss Gunpowder over 1400m here first-up on September 17. Patrick Maloney keeps the ride and she rises only a kilo for the win to 55kg second-up. She has a good second-up record.
SHILLELAGH broke through for her first win on Australian soil over 1440m here on October 1. She goes up a half kilo to 55kg but has a horror draw in gate (19) and must sweat on a run.
EURO ANGEL is a lightly-raced mare, who ran hard first up as a $2.50 favourite when running second over 1400m at Warwick Farm on October 3. Dwayne Dunn replaces Sydney hoop Tommy Berry.
DULVERTON (Best Roughie) ran a big race to finish a close third over 1600m in a mares’ event at Moonee Valley on September 23. She has a superior draw in six here and drops a half kilo to 55kg.
SELECTIONS: No7 ALASKAN ROSE, No18 Shillelagh, No15 Euro Angel, No14 Dulverton.
VALUE RUNNER: No14 Dulverton.