Back to Rosehill for a big chunk of meetings here, with some deep and juicy races. The track is good and the rail is in the true position.
Quaddie Races – 6,7,8,9
Skinny Play: 15,16,17 – 4 – 12 – 6,7,13
Wide Play: 2,4,6,8,13,15,16,17 – 1,4 – 4,5,12 – 6,7,13
BEST BET – Race 1, NO 1 DARHAD.
NEXT BEST – Race 8, NO 12 IN THE VANGUARD.
BEST ROUGHIE – Race 6, NO 15 LONELY ORPHAN.
DARHAD comes up as the BEST BET of the day here and can get punters off to a flyer. I noted that Freedman said the horse had a lot of improvement in him from that debut run and he was just beaten by Madame Moustache. Not at all worried about the step up to 1100m here as he has that race experience and fitness on his rivals after two trials before the debut run. From barrier (5) he should roll across and either lead or sit outside the leader and prove too strong.
SELECTIONS: No 1 DARHAD, No 8 Champagne Cuddles, No 7 Ibanez, No 2 Lightz.
VALUE RUNNER: No 7 Ibanez.
Race 2 12:40pm WEST TRADIES CFMEU HANDICAP 1200m
CADOGAN has trialled like a bomb leading into this. When Collett has given him a little rein in the straight he has really let down impressively both times. His form last preparation was solid around some nice horses and if he can be close enough he can be hard to beat.
IL RICCIO produced some sort of a win on debut and ran a track record time (33.3s last 600m). Times that day at Ipswich were extremely hot, so I’m being a little cautious here. He had previously sizzled in a trial in April this year. He will take up the speed here and give them something to run down.
The form around ECKSTEIN is quite good and she got a well-deserved win on the board in the highway. That field looked quite good for a highway and she smashed them. Poland off and Bell on is a big change (off a win?) and from gate (4) she looks to get a lovely run on the map.
STAR OF MONSOON will go back from the gate and have the last shot at them here. He ran on really well in the Brian Crowley and that form will tie in well here. The big weight is a bit of an ask though.
SELECTIONS: No 2 CADOGAN, No 7 Il Riccio, No 6 Eckstein, No 1 Star Of Monsoon.
VALUE RUNNER: No 6 Eckstein.
Race 3 1:20m AMWU HANDICAP 1500m
MOHER profiles well here third-up from a spell and is well weighted after the claim for Heywood. He did all the work in the run last start and was just run down by Invizabell, who is in flying form this time in. The form around him is quite good for a race such as this and has been a winner at the track and distance in the past.
DREAMFORCE steps up in grade here and is in great form this time in having won his last two. I expect him to take up the speed from barrier (1) here and roll along at a decent enough clip. The winkers have been added to keep his mind on the job as he has been stargazing recently.
NASSAK has gotten better each time we have seen her this time in. Last start she showed that she had some tactical versatility by taking a sit and not having to lead. She can do the same yet again here from gate (6) and sit off Dreamforce/Moher.
LIAPARI should be improved for that first-up run behind Dreamforce where he just missed. With added race fitness on his side and Avdulla going aboard, as well as the 1.5kg weight swing, he has plenty in his favour. He can finish over the top here.
SELECTIONS: No 1 MOHER, No 3 Dreamforce, No 7 Nassak, No 8 Liapari.
VALUE RUNNER: No 8 Liapari.
Race 4 2:00pm TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP 1300m
NIC’S VENDETTA comes out of what looks to be one of the strongest highways to date when running third last start. He was no more than four wide the trip and was asked to make two runs in the race. He is done no favour with the gate yet again here, but this map looks better for him and he should be hard to beat.
DON’T DOUBT HER resumed with a dominant win first-up at Scone. In her 2-y-o season she took on some nice races and was not at all disgraced (seven lengths off Impending one day). Being a 3-y-o filly she is super well weighted here, even more so after the claim. If she turned up here and blew them away I would not be at all surprised.
FUEL has plenty of ability, but he has not been putting it all together this time in. His form is more than good enough for a race like this, but with the gate and Williams’ record at the moment (2/50 since August) there is a slight concern. On pure ability, he needs to go in.
JOEY’S DESTINY has been good at winning his past two in slick time. Getting onto good going has been the key to him after his first-up run behind Lunar Duchess (second in highway last week) on heavy going. He has drawn to get a good run in transit here and should be thereabouts.
SELECTIONS: No 2 NIC’S VENDETTA, No 16 Don’t Doubt Her, No 3 Fuel, No 6 Joey’s Destiny.
VALUE RUNNER: No 6 Joey’s Destiny.
Race 5 2:45pm CFMEU MINING HANDICAP 1350m
If ASINARA can find her form from earlier on in the year she is the horse to beat here. They tried to starch her out to staying trips last time and I don’t think that she is that type of mare. Up to a mile may see her out in the future. I loved her last trial where she closed off well in the final stages and she looks primed first-up here.
MAGICUS should have been in the finish last start. Collett was following Bullrush into the race who gave nothing upon straightening and was left with nowhere to go. From barrier (9) here, he shouldn’t have such issues and should be hard to beat.
ROYAL TUDOR comes through the same race as Magicus and didn’t have any traffic issues, but was just no match for the winner there. He draws perfectly to get a good run yet again here and should be thereabouts.
METALLIC CROWN has all the ability in the world, but it’s a matter of which MC wants to turn up. This time last year he was being touted as a future star and it always seemed as if the penny never dropped. He is back from a three-month bleeding ban here, and bleeders first-up have a good record. He looks to be tuned up for a good run fresh.
SELECTIONS: No 6 ASINARA, No 2 Magicus, No 4 Royal Tudor, No 5 Metallic Crown.
VALUE RUNNER: No 5 Metallic Crown.
Race 6 3:25pm VINCENTS COUNTRY CLASSIC 2000m
Good luck here punters; if we find the winner we should be in front for the day. Happy to side with LONELY ORPHAN (BEST ROUGHIE) at the current odds. He really hit the line strongly in the Port Macquarie cup in what was a much stronger race than this. That race was run brutally and he sustained a sprint through the line, with question marks on a few getting the distance here. I’m happy to follow him in from a good gate.
ASHTOMINA raced as if she were looking for 2000m last start. She produced a good win fresh before a typical flat second-up run for a stayer. She has proven herself as a stayer in her career, with three of her wins coming at a mile plus and placing at ten others. She doesn’t win out of turn, but with no weight and a horse who is proven at the distance and with a recent win she goes in at $67.
MYSTICISM has had no luck with the draw here and finds herself quickly at 2000m second-up. She was well held fresh in a highway when probably in the worst going. The SPs from that race aren’t all that flash, but her run behind Sagaronne commands respect as does the booking of Avdulla.
IT’S A SHAMOZZLE is clearly the best horse in the race, but it’s hard to see him running out a strong 2000m. His record at barriers outside 10 is 0/5 and he is yet to run out a strong mile. That said, he gets in well at the weights with the claim and if it turns into a sprint home, he will probably beat them.
SELECTIONS: No 15 LONELY ORPHAN, No 17 Ashtomina, No 16 Mysticism, No 4 It’s A Shamozzle.
VALUE RUNNER: No15 Lonely Orphan.
Race 7 4:10pm BLACKTOWN WORKERS HANDICAP 1800m
VASSAL on the quick back-up profiles well here. The race wasn’t run to suit him at all last week, nor the conditions. He drops 4kgs on last week’s run and gets a senior back on and should be hard to beat.
NEW TIPPERARY was some sort of a win last start. He was gone at the 600m before somehow lifting and managing to win. The wider expanses of Rosehill should suit, as well as getting out to 1800m.
IGGI POP hit the line well enough first-up. He is probably looking for further than this but he is a classy conveyance and needs to be respected.
ELECTRIC FUSION looks well placed here off a good run in a solid rating race at Caulfield. Getting out to the 1800m suits and he wants it to stay rock hard as he doesn’t go an inch on soft going.
SELECTIONS: No 4 VASSAL, No 9 New Tipperary, No 1 Iggi Pop, No 3 Electric Fusion.
VALUE RUNNER: No 1 Iggi Pop.
Race 8 4:55pm BRADFORD SOUNDSCREEN HANDICAP 1200m
IN THE VANGUARD is the NEXT BEST BET here after what was a much better than it looked run at Caulfield. She led on a day where no leaders won, she faced the breeze and was a bit fresh first-up. She drops well in grade here and is superbly weighted after the claim. She could sit off them here and give them a beating.
SELECTIONS: No 12 IN THE VANGUARD, No 5 Brigadoon Rise, No 4 Rillito, No 3 Yuma Desert.
VALUE RUNNER: No 5 Brigadoon Rise.
Race 9 5:40pm VIRIDIAN LIGHTBRIDGE HANDICAP 1100m
UPSCALE should be winning this coming out of what was a super strong midweek race. Previous to that she was a dominant winner first-up. She gets a good jockey change here, with Avdulla getting aboard and Reith coming off. She will get a perfect run on the map and should get clear room from the top of the straight and be too good.
ELEMENOHPEE has trialled well leading into this and was in a purple patch of form last time in with three wins from four starts. The form around her is quite good for a race such as this. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him cross and lead after that trial and prove hard to run down.
CHRYSOLAUS resumes here and is now with Sylvester and that warrants respect immediately due to his record when teaming up with RT. He had a soft trial at Cessnock and has a great record first-up.
ARISE AUGUSTUS is as honest as they come and finds another winnable race here. That race at Port Macquarie will prove to be quite good going forward. He is in his right grade here and has to be given another chance given his form.
SELECTIONS: No 13 UPSCALE, No 7 Elemenohpee, No 6 Chrysolaus, No 5 Arise Augustus.
VALUE RUNNER: No 6 Chrysolaus.