Horse Racing News | 2017 Sydney Cup Early Market Analysis
Taking a look at the all-in markets to see where the value lies
Mon, 27 Feb, 12:00 AM
2017 SYDNEY CUP EARLY MARKET ANALYSISThe $2 million dollar prize pool for this years Sydney cup and increased prevalence of “The Championships” is looking to shape this years rendition as a very highly anticipated affair. As is the case for the Melbourne version, there looks to be plenty of international raiders poised to come and take the spoils. Here we will try and shed some light on some players in the current all-in market and determine if they’re worth a throw at the stumps or weather to wait and see how they progress towards the 3200m event. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE (52.5kg): the first cab of the rank and the favourite in the current market is this son of Shocking for Chris Waller. Currently rated $8/$2.75 after being backed in from $11 following his win in a BM88 at Rosehill on February 8th. He sure ticks plenty of boxes and looks plenty progressive. Loves the wet, from the right yard, exposed form. The $8 currently on offer is tempting, especially if he walks in at his next assignment over 2000m, however Waller, who’ll probably train 5 runners in the field - as is standard protocol for Sydney staying events – has mentioned that he doesn’t want to give the progressive type an over-taxing Autumn, looking towards the Melbourne spring. So at the current odds, I would suggest waiting until his next start (or two) up in grade and out in trip to see what his Autumn is going to look like before taking the plunge. PENGLAI PAVILION (50.5kg): One of the two international raiders for the Godolphin operation under Charlie Appleby. Hard to forget how dominant the Appleby horses were last spring in Melbourne and Pengalai Pavilion comes here with a very good profile for an Australian 3200m race. Had been doing well over the hurdles since mid-2015 (a proven formulae with Max Dynamite and Heartbreak city running well in Melbourne cups recently) before having 4 flat races prior to departure. One of which he won over 3600m in September last year before finishing 9L, 11 of 15 in a group 1 in France, so he’s certainly used to travelling. He also ran 5th in the 2013 Arc [de Triomphe] to a brilliant galloper by the name of Treve, form of that like would certainly stand up in a race of this nature. Currently sitting at $15/$4.50 in all-in betting, an each-way ticket for this son of Monsun would do very nicely tucked away in the back of the wallet. POLARISATION (50kg): Handicapper has got it pretty spot on here in my opinion, I have him slightly below Pegalai Pavilion despite them both being at the $15/$4.50 in the market. Has been contesting high class ratings races for most of his life in the UK along with a single hurdles race in late 2015. Running 20th of 20 in Northumberland mid last year at his first attempt in class racing doesn’t read well, although it was an absolute mess for him in the straight as you can see below. Would wait to see how he goes here before having a bet. ALMANDIN (58kg): Going to have to lug 6 more kilograms here than in the Melbourne cup to win, although that performance in last years cup was stunning. The Williams camp keeps their cards to their chest (until Nick takes to twitter) so I find it a touch treacherous to jump into early prices when they have so many in the market. At this stage I would postulate that he may bypass the Sydney cup this preparation. Perhaps instead tackling it with a team lead by last year’s winner Gallante ($15/$4.50). Hence another one at the $15/$4.50 I could wait on at this stage. REGAL MONARCH (50kg): A recent black booker of ours after a good third up second at Randwick over the 2400m on a good 4. Currently showing massive odds of $101/$26 he’s one you could have a long range shot at without having to break the bank. Although the longest distance he’s stretched out to his 2816m, the way our staying races are run over here I believe he could stretch out to 3200m given there is no break away leader. You can also take a line through Wall of Fire, who he finished 2.8L on the back of over 2816m but subsequently beat Polarisation by 4.5L over the 2920m.