CAN SHE STILL REIGN?
— Sky Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 4, 2017
After being beaten by over 2 lengths on the line as a $1.40 favourite (drifting from $1.20), can She Will Reign still win the Golden Slipper? In a word, absolutely!
Plenty of people have been extremely keen to pot the slipper favourite after seemingly ‘flopping’ on the weekend in the first race at Randwick, however I believe there were a myriad of excuses for the hot pot.
Firstly, the track… In all honesty, having multiple group 1 events on that surface was an injustice to the punters and the brand of racing in NSW.
I’m not saying logistics could or would dictate a move of the meeting, with the good horses needing adequate time in-between runs moving forward to the championships. Nor were the track managers at fault, but given almost every winner was hard up against the outside rail I could hardly see how the track was rated a heavy 9 for the first couple of races.
Given these conditions and racing patterns, you would think forgiving anything that didn’t have an outside rails run or better yet, an outside section of the track run, was a given. This was certainly the case for She Will Reign.
Furthermore, the speed upfront in this race set by From Within was certainly nothing to laugh at. This would’ve made it a true 1200m test regardless of the conditions, but on the heavy ‘9’, even more so.
So for She Will Reign to be up just off the fast speed and still put everything else away was brilliant. Everything else but Frolic ($17-$13), who was given an absolute 10/10 from Berry, smoking her pipe out the back off the good tempo, swinging out the clear best part of the track, but racing away with it by no means, 2.3L on the line.
Jockey Ben Melham also suggested post race that she didn’t handle the conditions. Just goes to show how much of a slosh it really was, given she has walked in on a heavy Randwick track previously, all be it in a restricted Inglis race. Though this was a similar form line to Frolic.
Ben Melham on She Will Reign - "She made hard work of it. If the track was a couple of grades better it is probably a different story."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 4, 2017
The TAB have reacted by winding her out $2.80 to $3.60. This isn’t much of a drastic move, showing either they still respect the filly or their liability is too huge to risk, probably a combination of the two.
Whilst the significant firmer, magic millions winner, Houtzen: $8-$6-$4.60 won with 63kgs in second gear over 1000m in Brisbane. In my opinion, this was exactly what she had to do if she were to stay on the second line of betting for a $3.5 million dollar race. Takes a brilliant filly to do that under 63kg at 2 years of age none the less.
Finally, you don’t have to go back too far to see golden slipper winners Sepoy (2011) and Capitalist (2016) both running second in their lead ups in the Todman as red hot favourites, $1.20 each. Never sack a good horse on one bad run.
As long as this tough race in tough conditions doesn’t take too much out of her (doesn’t seem so by the tweet below), pot this smart filly at your own demise. I think she’ll continue to drift until race day, much like last years winner.
Also Catchy still at $11 after all this? Overs!
She Will Reign has pulled up remarkably well after her run yesterday.Ate up and went for a buck in the sand roll this morning.13days to go.
— Gary Portelli (@GaryPortelli) March 5, 2017