BMW Day for the last portion of the carnival from Rosehill. We got through last week and I expect us to race here on Saturday. How do we get over the performance of Winx last week - utterly phenomenal! But we have nine good races to look forward to here, with two Group 1’s on the card. The track will be heavy and the rail is out 6m the circumference.
QUADDIES (Races 6-7-8-9)
Skinny: 1,2,8 – 1,2,4 – 2,3 – 1,10
Wide: 1,2,6,8 – 1,2,3,4 – 2,3,7,8,9,13 – 1,2,3,6,8,10
Best Bet: R3 - N3 ASTRONOMOS
Next Best Bet: R7 - N4 DAWN WALL
Best Roughie: R2 - N6 SORT AFTER
NO 3 ASTORIA Won in arrogant fashion on debut. He was talked about as a miler immediately after that race, and out to 1400m shouldn’t be an issue. He handled the conditions on debut and should be hard to beat.
NO 13 SMOOTH LANDING Doesn’t have much of an idea of what she is doing, but is full of talent. The step up to 1400m should help, I would have loved to see winkers on, but from gate 5 she should get a great run.
NO 2 ALBUMIN Got the job done well last start at Rosehill and the step up to 1400m looks suitable. Having a look at him on type, the wet track shouldn’t be an issue.
NO 10 VILLA CARLOTTA Comes through the best form line with a third behind the Golden Slipper. The step up to 1400m looks ideal now, and she’s proven in wet going
VALUE RUNNER: NO 13 SMOOTH LANDING
NO 3 IMPENDING Gets one last chance here, after disappointing at two runs this time in. They have proven to be very good form races though and he is back in grade. He should be rock hard fit and ready to go.
NO 6 SORT AFTER (BEST ROUGHIE) Has trialled well enough leading into a fresh run, the 1200m may be short of her best, but the form that she showed last time in, showed she was up to that level. Wet going no issue either.
NO 4 JUNGLE EDGE Ran the race of his life last week in the Galaxy, look at his record and its says out and out wet tracker. He will want this rain to hang around.
NO 1 ARTISTRY Resumed with a good win fresh, my worry is that it was a very hollow race that day, but she really ran through the line and showed she was in for a good prep.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 6 SORT AFTER
NO 3 ASTRONOMOS (BEST BET) Smashed them second-up at Randwick, he again gets his preferred wet conditions. He is a jet over 2000m having never lost in Sydney over the trip. Rosehill no issue as he won here as a young horse. Collett has a great record on him and he should be winning.
NO 1 ASSIGN After three strides he wasn’t going to win first-up, he went against his normal pattern, he should improve here.
NO 4 CLASSIC UNIFORM In great form this prep, huge run in the Canberra Cup, they won’t want to leave him alone in front.
NO 8 AMBIENCE Ran well last weekend and on the quick back up she is suited.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 8 AMBIENCE
NO 7 SPECTROSCOPE Won in easy fashion first-up, there was a lot to like about that win as he looked very stylish. He drops 4kgs for that win and has wins on soft ground in Europe, he could be a Doncaster smokey.
NO 6 NEW TIPPERARY Big run last start, did a stack of work and only just missed. He should be fully fit now third-up from a spell, but is he looking for further?
NO 3 KENJORWOOD Tough gelding who looks ready to peak now. He really ran through the line at Flemington, adaptable in all conditions he is a player here.
NO 5 MARENOSTRO Has a great fresh record and is super effective in the wet. He is at his peak trip here and there is a lot to like about his trials coming in, this looks like it has been the plan given the timing.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 5 MARENOSTRO
NO 2 JON SNOW Was good in the New Zealand derby and that form held up last weekend with Gingernuts winning the Guineas. Back to 2000m is no issue, nor is heavy going. He looks well set for a win here.
NO 4 ACATOUR Has been disappointing for mine in both runs this time in, but happy to give him one more chance out to 2000m. On his best, lookout.
NO 1 PRIZED ICON Was horrid last week, and although I am not super confident in his chances, he is on the back up on wet going and that is a big factor here.
NO 10 GARBHAN Has a recent 2000m run under his belt in which he won strongly, he has found Bowman which is a big plus, he is big and raw. Once he knows how to race he will make a horse.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 10 GARBHAN
NO 1 OUR IVANHOWE Should just be winning this, he is on the quick back up. He smashed them last week. He loves wet going and his best performances have been over 2400m. A German Derby win and a Japan Cup fourth.
NO 8 JAMEKA Just did too much work last start and was only run down late. She is proven the Sydney way of going and over 2400m. She won the Oaks on a heavy track.
NO 2 EXOSPHERIC Ran right through the line in the Australian Cup, soft going and 2400m is what he has been crying out for. His win at Newmarket in the Jockey Club Stakes this time last year was unreal.
NO 6 HUMIDOR Had it all fall into place for him in the Australian Cup. He now has to come to Sydney, peak again and get through wet going.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 2 EXOSPHERIC
NO 4 DAWN WALL (NEXT BEST BET) Won in brilliant fashion last start when dropping back in distance. The step up now to 2000m just looks perfect for her. She should plough through wet going and go onto the Oaks after this.
NO 2 FOXPLAY The win had to be seen to be believed last start, under all sorts of pressure on the turn, found all kinds of trouble yet still won easily? How? Wet track no issue, but the 2000m is a concern for mine.
NO 1 LA BELLA DIOSA We know she is a wet tracker and gets that again here, like when she won the Surround. Forgive last start when pulling up with issues. The step to 2000m looks ideal.
NO 3 HARLOW GOLD Ran right though the line in the Australian Guineas last start. The step to 2000m looks perfect now. Wet tracks won’t be an issue for her either.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 4 DAWN WALL
NO 2 DIXIE BLOSSOMS Was 5 and 6 wide the trip in the Coolmore and was entitled to drop out, at SWP she is better suited here. Tricky gate in 13 for Collett to overcome, but she has the talent.
NO 3 ZANBAGH Gets the bog track that she has been looking for, she is just a step below the top grade and this is the sort of race that she can win.
NO 7 DAYSEE DOOM Big effort in the Coolmore last start, but does now rise in weight for that run. But the way that she ran there makes me think that she can more than overcome it.
NO 8 HAPPY HANNAH Good run first-up at Flemington against the bias, second-up last time in she produced a monster effort. She was scratched last week and this is a much more suitable race for her.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 8 HAPPY HANNAH
NO 10 ANCIENT HISTORY Just ran out of puff late first-up on a wet track at Kembla. He drops well in weight here and should be much improved for that run and have his chance here.
NO 1 HANDFAST This is as weak a race that he has run in this time in, he loomed up to win the National Sprint at Canberra and just didn’t go on with it. This looks his race here down in grade.
NO 6 XEBEC Has been gelded since his last preparation and has trialled well enough coming into this. His best form is over 2000m but fact that he is with Waller, I need to give him a lot of respect.
NO 8 BRING LUCK Has a very good wet-track record, he just ran out of condition first-up and should be much more improved for that effort. He stays at the same weight and has his chance.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 8 BRING LUCK