Winter is setting in early at Pakenham with Thursday tipped to be cold and damp. Not an enjoyable night with a maximum of 17C forecast and a 70 per-cent chance of rain. The track at the moment is rated a Good 4 but it could change depending on how much rain they get. The rail is at the true position.
QUADDIES (Races 5-6-7-8)
Skinny Play: 8,9 / 5,7,8 / 1,4,9,13 / 4,6,7,9
Wide Play: 7,8,9,10 / 2,4,5,6,7,8,10 / 1,4,7,8,9,10,13 / 2,4,5,6,7,9,12
BEST BEST: R3 – 10. PLUS EFFRONTE
Next Best Bet: R6 – 10. TICKETING
Best Roughie: R6 – 7. ITCHY NEE
No4 THE DOMINATOR Warming up to a win and looks to be a strong force.
No6 HAVANA HAYMAKER Slew his rivals by 3¼ lengths at his maiden win. Respect.
No3 HOT POWER Sure to be steaming home in this and one of the chances.
No7 PANDA EYES Was returning off a 21-day break and was caught up in traffic.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 HOT POWER
No6 SHAMPION Won three starts ago at Kilmore and recent start was solid over 2500m.
No3 NAPOLEAN’S WAR Won over 2500m here four starts ago and racing honestly.
No5 FIRST STAR Won maiden over 2024m at Warrnambool last start. Has claims.
No2 SLOWPOKE RODRIGUEZ Hurdler who is en route back to the jumps. Can go okay on the flat.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 FIRST STAR
No10 PLUS EFFRONTE (BEST BET) Is a nicely bred filly who ran two good races at her only two starts. She has been off the scene for 343 days and she will be cherry ripe for a positive return here hailing from a top stable and with the in-form apprentice Jordan Childs booked to ride on 56.5kg. She was beaten centimeters at her debut so expect her to be very forward.
No4 RUFINSON Has finished in the first four placings at his past five starts. Consistent.
No3 RAPID ASSET Good run at first start back from a spell and wears winkers for the first time.
No7 TANTRIC Has blinkers fitted as proved most wayward first-up. Should improve.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 TRANTRIC
No8 RIDGWAY Will be charging home and did trial well at Cranbourne recently.
No4 KAPTIVE HERO Has a sound first-up record and showed ability last preparation.
No5 LET’S MAKE WHOOPI Blinkers go on and has shown ability in trials. Check market to see if any moves.
No10 LADY MAHALA On her first-up run looms as a danger against her older rivals here.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 KAPTIVE HERO
No10 LADY KOOCACHOO This is a tough race of fillies and mares. She has only had three starts so there is room for improvement and she is from an astute betting yard. Latest sound effort when fourth over 1400m here on March 2.
No8 BRIDGY LASS Claimed her first placing at nine starts when finishing third over 1400m in a maiden at Geelong on March 18. That was her second start back from a spell and can improve further.
No9 HANDPICKED Is by leading Kiwi sire Savabeeel and won’t mind this trip at her debut. She hails from a top Melbourne stable and has leading apprentice Ben Allen to partner.
No7 AMORTENTIA Kept on working towards the line when finishing fourth at her debut over 1200m in a maiden at Kyneton on March 6. She did enough that day to warrant here.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 AMORTENTIA
No10 TICKETING (NEXT BEST BET) Zoomed home after striking the outside rail to narrowly miss catching Odeon over 1400m at Bendigo last start on March 14. Thomas Sadler rides again and he is in a superior barrier (2) and drops a half-kilo to 57.5kg here. Looks one of the better bets on the card.
No8 MISSILE BOOM Gave a great sight first-up here and will be fitter.
No7 ITCHY NEE (BEST ROUGHIE) Broke maiden status two starts ago and makes solid appeal.
No5 ALL OUT OF LOVE Has been gelded while spelling. Hails from a top stable.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 MISSILE BOOM
No4 FAST STRYKE Lots of talent in this race. Was firm in the betting at $5 before scoring his maiden win over 1200m at Moonee Valley on March 13. Has finished in the money at five of his six starts.
No9 MY AIM IS TRUE Struck a smart type in Handsome Thief when running third over 1200m at Moonee Valley on March 13. Won three starts ago and has been most reliable.
No1 CALL IT A DAY Went one better at second start to score a maiden win here over 1200m on March 9. Jamie Mott keeps the ride and goes up a half-kilo to 59kg. Danger.
No13 NINA’S BALLERINA She is first emergency but if she gets a start she is a big chance on her brilliant 3½ length maiden win over 1100m against her own sex at Bendigo on March 14.
VALUE RUNNER: No4 FAST STRYKE
No9 MISS CLOONEY Was backed into $4 but found the winner too good when runner-up over 1400m here on March 16. Had won at her prior start at this track and rates highly.
No7 CEYLON Back in class here after running ninth in a Group 3 over 1600m at Kembla Grange on March 10. Gets top jockey Stephen Baster to ride and likes this distance.
No4 NO COMMITMENT Fought on well enough as a $3.80 to finish third over 1400m here on March 16. Luke Nolen replaces Jamie Mott and he has finished inside the money at four of his six starts.
No6 STORMY SHORE Was out-gunned but ran well to finish fifth over 2000m at Flemington on March 18. Was specked at big odds from $61 into $31 so would give a chance dropping back in class.
VALUE RUNNER: No5 STORMY SHORE