The Championships are upon us, we have four big Group 1 races today with a hell of a lot of prize money on the line. The Doncaster is my favourite race of the year, and this year’s is a cracker with $7 the field. Weather watch as usual for Sydney. We have had good weather early in the week, with some rain late. The rail is true and the track (hopefully) is soft.
QUADDIES (Races 7-8-9-10)
Skinny: 1,2,3,4 – 2,13,14 – 2,5,11,16,19 – 3,4,5,8,9,12
Wide: 1,2,3,4,7,11 – 1,2,7,12,13,14 – 1,2,4,5,10,11,12,14,16,19 – 3,4,5,8,9,11,12
Best Bet: R2 N2 EUSEBIO
Next Best Bet: R5 N3 RAIMENT
Best Roughie: R9 N16 ANTONIO GUISEPPE
NO 8 SHEIKHA Won in soft fashion fresh after solid trials leading in. Her form in her first preparation was super solid (five-lengths behind She Will Reign). She should improve from that run and at her home track, lookout.
NO 9 ALIZEE Been very good in two runs so far in her career. She was left a sitting shot in the Magic Night last start and the form out of that has stacked up. Now back to 1100m? Not so sure as she looked prepped up to make the Slipper.
NO 2 CONDOR HEROES Got back on track after going nuts before the Pago Pago, with a good maiden win. He still needs to settle in the run up against good horses, but he is proven in a wet track and could still improve.
NO 7 FROM WITHIN Don’t know what to make of her, thought she was good enough to win a Magic Millions / Slipper after her debut win and she’s done nothing but let the market down in her two starts since. The trial after the last start failure was brilliant, but is she a trial star?
VALUE RUNNER: NO 7 FROM WITHIN
NO 2 EUSEBIO (BEST BET) Has improved leaps and bounds this time in and looks ready to tackle Group level now after three super strong wins. He keeps progressing through his grades well. The ground should be no issue and from gate 5 he should sit just behind the speed and be hitting the line stronger than anything else.
NO 9 ZENALICIOUS Missed last week in preference for this. Her run last start in the Phar Lap was brilliant and she does have good soft form.
NO 5 ACATOUR Drops well in grade here after being disappointing this time in. The mile does look to suit, but how well is he going.
NO 6 MR SNEAKY Won well against the bias at Flemington last start, the form has stacked up well.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 2 EUSEBIO
NO 3 ALOFT Won in good fashion first-up at Flemington, he should take massive fitness benefit for that, Lloyd’s horses have been running brilliantly as of late. Every race over 2000m in Sydney in the last month have been won by horses from Vic / NZ, hard to go against that.
NO 2 KINEMA Will be hoping the track isn’t bottomless and should be ready to go now. He has a host of gear changes here and gets Zac Purton, have to give him on more chance.
NO 6 POLARISATION Charlie Appleby in Sydney for the first time, this horse's form is good enough in the UK and needs to run well here to get into the Sydney Cup. McEvoy and Appleby won four from five together in the spring.
NO 1 BIG DUKE Has been up for a hell of a long time now and is eighth-up into his first Aussie prep and last start may have well been a gutbuster. He also goes up 4kgs.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 6 POLARISATION
NO 1 DISTINCTIVE LOOK Won his heat in brilliant fashion against the bias. He is a winner at Randwick in the past and is a winner in the wet. He looks to get a great run here and is super odds.
NO 3 PERFECT DARE Won his heat in a track gallop, but that was six weeks ago and he has been up for a while. It will be a massive training effort to win this, a wet track is a concern.
NO 6 CAERLESS CHOICE Belied the trainers thoughts to win in wet going last start, he gets the bar plates off here and that is a massive change, he is unbeaten and cannot be knocked.
NO 11 STONEYRISE This would be the story of the carnival if this horse was to win. It takes the trainer and the horse three days to get to Randwick. The qualifier win was strong as he came off a brutal tempo and ran through the line. Cheer on the battlers!
VALUE RUNNER: NO 1 DISTINCTIVE LOOK
NO 3 RAIMENT (NEXT BEST BET) Dominant win first-up at Rosehill, what I loved about that win was that she handled the bottomless Rosehill going and dominated the race from the outset. She should be further improved from that first-up effort and is a filly on the up.
NO 12 ZUMBELINA Won all four races last time in with consummate ease, steps up well in grade here. But off the most recent trial looks more than up to it.
NO 8 PROMPT RESPONSE Proven in soft going in the past and has trialled well leading in. Trained on the track by Gai, she has to be respected and is proven at this level.
NO 14 INVINCIBELLA Looks ready to take the next step this time in after a solid prep last time in. She has had two nice trials coming into this and may well be on the road to Brisbane.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 8 PROMPT RESPONSE
NO 2 MENARI Is now primed and ready to go third up to 1400m, he still looked a run short leading into the Slipper, he didn’t handle the going and ran super to run fourth. A drier track suits.
NO 6 GUNNISON Missed the Slipper in preference for this, his win in the Todman was super tough and is usually the best Slipper lead up. The trial between runs was classy and now third-up at 1400m he is well suited.
NO 14 FROLIC Unbeaten at Randwick and loves soft going, is going to get the right run of the race here. She will get back and rattle home here.
NO 15 TULIP Low flying and the step to 1400m suits being by Pierro, think the drying track will suit her and she should get a better run here.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 6 GUNNISON
NO 3 INFERENCE Looks set to peak here fourth up at 2400m, he missed the boat last start when Tommy was messing with his goggles and in a flash Gingernuts was off and gone. He is proven at Randwick and over 2400m happy to have on top.
NO 2 GINGERNUTS Big winner of both the NZ Derby and the Rosehill Guineas, but my reservation is that Rosehill Guineas winners have horrid record in this race, and on Guineas day he looked really tucked up and may well have gone backwards. His class speaks for itself.
NO 1 PRIZED ICON Follows the same program as when he won the VRC Derby, fifth-up and on a week back up. He improved 100 yards last week after the Guineas failure. The 2400m and Randwick suit perfectly.
NO 4 JON SNOW Big winner of the Tulloch last week and did it with consummate ease, was a bit behind Gingernuts in the NZ Derby, but that win last week against rivals here was something to notice.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 1 PRIZED ICON
NO 14 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION Big win in the Galaxy, I have never seen a horse parade worse, he carried on, he was sweating and threw a shoe, yet still lifted to win when looking gone. Unbeaten second-up and is a winner over Astern at the T&D in October.
NO 13 ASTERN Unbeaten fresh and has been targeted at this race all along, he has been trialing since January but he is a big gross colt who needs the grounding. Putting the bit between my teeth and saying he is the best 3yo sprinter and can win even with the talk of him having some issues.
NO 2 MALAGUERRA Goes brilliantly when on the fresh side. Forgive the Orr run when he was too soon between runs and did a mountain of work, fresh he smashed them at the Valley. When he had a freshen up last prep he won the Darley. The trial last week was brilliant.
NO 12 ENGLISH Comes in off the exact same set up of last year’s second. Win the Challenge “average” Galaxy run. Peak third-up. The two times she has been third-up in an Autumn prep, she has run second in a slipper and second in this race last year.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 2 MALAGUERRA
NO 5 HAPPY CLAPPER Low flying this time in, run of the day at Canberra with 61kgs coming from last, then dominated the Newcastle Newmarket with 59.5kgs. He should be 100% fit now. Last three preparations when third-up; Villers won, Doncaster second, Epsom fourth. All three at the Randwick mile at HCP.
NO 2 LE ROMAIN Absolutely flying this time in, beating all comers expect for Winx, take away that defeat and he probably starts $4 here. Fourth and fifth-up to 1600m in the past he has peaked to win Group 1's and he is fourth-up here!
NO 19 SPECTROSCOPE Is the left of field horse coming into this after two soft wins at Rosehill that have been dynamic. He gets the Magic Man Moreria here with just 51kgs. 1600m looks no issue at all.
NO 16 ANTONIO GIUSEPPE (BEST ROUGHIE) Has the perfect C Waller set up of his past Doncaster wins, coming into this on the back off a 2000m run at Rosehill. Blinkers back on suit and down to 52kgs all suit. Ground no issue, watch him jump out of the ground.
NO 11 MCCREERY Finally out to a mile and doesn’t have to chase Winx, the fresh win was awesome and third-up last time in he was a big winner at a mile. Trained by Waller, he has to go in.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 16 ANTONIO GUISEPPE
NO 4 HIGH IMPULSE Big maiden win last start in dominant fashion, the trial between runs was good and Randwick should suit her as she looks a filly who needs time to work through her gears.
NO 3 MULL OVER Trotted in last start at Newcastle and the step to 2000m here looks to suit, she brings really good form to the race here from her first three starts and she looks ready for this.
NO 8 LA CHATTE Looks set up to win this after two runs this time in where she has been dragged back and ran on, the step to 2000m suits now.
NO 12 FACE LIKE THUNDER Brings the far left form here, winning her last two and the last of which was at Tuncurry, where the rider was having her first race ride and basically carried the jockey to win against older horses. She has the 2000m run under her belt.
VALUE RUNNER: NO 12 FACE LIKE THUNDER