Warwick Farm for our midweek meeting here in Sydney. We have eight races on the card with a few intriguing races as we are looking towards the “off season” as the carnival is about to head north. The rail is +5m 1000m-W/Post, +3m Remainder. We are currently on a heavy track and at best we will get to a slow 7.
Skinny Play: 1 – 1,3,4 – 1 – 6,12,14
Wide Play: 1,3,4 – 1,3,4 – 1,3 – 2,4,5,6,7,10,12,13,14,15
BEST BET: R7 – N1 STAMPEDE
Next Best Bet: R2 – N5 IN TIMES OF WAR
Best Roughie: R3 – N7 POWER LAW
No4 ENLIGHTENED BOY has been trialing well enough leading into a debut run here, it's about now Waller starts to win these 2yo races.
No2 OUR MANTRA comes out of what looks to be a good race last start and he was strong through the line.
No8 ARGEMONE comes out of a good race last start behind Condor Heros, where she found the line well. Up to 1200m suits.
No10 FURLANA trialing up in stylish fashion and has got through the going well in trials.
VALUE RUNNER: No 4 ENLIGHTENED BOY
No5 IN TIMES OF WAR (NEXT BEST BET) has been trialing the house down this time in and has had “back me fresh” written all over him. He comes out of some super-hot form races that have held up and he has found a perfect race fresh.
No3 SAVVAN comes out of some nice races last prep and may well be on a path to QLD given the timing, the trial was solid.
No4 CALIFORNIA ARCHER big win fresh where he just kept running, big step up here but he should handle it.
No1 AVIATOR drops well in grade after an even effort in the Gosford Guineas, winkers on first time.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 SAVVAN
No1 AXIOMATIC good enough run first up when dragged back near last, hit the line powerfully and the step to 1600m now suits (wet ground shouldn’t worry).
No3 KRUSTY unlucky last start at Newcastle (as has been the story in all runs) to a mile at his home track suits.
No5 CROSS STITCH another unlucky runner last start who is a good wet tracker and should appreciate the mile.
No7 POWER LAW (BEST ROUGHIE) putting it all together and the writing was on the wall last start for a win in the not too distant future.
VALUE RUNNER: No7 POWER LAW
No2 MISS BALLANTINE ok enough fresh at Newcastle, second-up to 1400m with Bowman on suits.
No4 CHAMPAGNE READY found the line well after a good trial at Newcastle. Second up to 1400m and a wet track all ticks.
No3 SPEED HERO won in dominant fashion last start, wet tracks no worry at all given his record.
No7 NO WHEN TO HOLD EM found the line well in the Albury Guineas where the form has stood up quite well. Wet track no concern either.
VALUE RUNNER: No 7 NO WHEN TO HOLD EM
No1 KENTUCKY MISS drops back to midweek level here after a good run at Flemington (Last 600m in 32:4 seconds) she came back from a win in Melbourne last prep and won at the T&D.
No3 HOT HIT won with a big weight last start at country level, he is a soft-track winner in the past.
No6 SHE ZAR loves a wet track and is going well this time in.
No7 JOHNNY ROO BOY was ok enough in his first NSW start, he should improve second-up.
VALUE RUNNER: No3 HOT HIT
No3 BRULEE trialled up in nice fashion leading into a fresh run here. Her record should be better than what it is and she has a good fresh record.
No4 DAGNY had a few issues last prep which restricted her to just two runs for two wins. Wet track shouldn’t be an issue and the trial was good.
No1 MODHA just keeps buttering up and performing well for backers. She loves wet going and again is a chance here.
No2 DIXIE CHICK will go around again at short odds as she is that style of horse, throw her in multiples, but she hates winning.
VALUE RUNNER: No 3 BRULEE
No1 STAMPEDE (BEST BET) Big winner second up at Goulburn off a long break, horses sometimes go backwards second-up when they run a monster race fresh and this bloke didn’t. He dominated the race from the front and smashed them. Stays at the mile here and should win again.
No3 BROADSIDE Put together a good record last time in, he has a great record fresh and loves wet going.
No6 ANCIENT HISTORY good enough effort last start in a similar race, out to a mile suits.
No8 SO WILLIE has a good fresh record and doesn’t mind wet going.
VALUE RUNNER: No8 SO WILLIE
No6 DREAMFORCE just missed last start (how did it miss?) second-up to 1300m suits perfectly with the senior in Angland on board.
No14 BRIGADOON RISE will want the track to dry out a touch, but she is much better than her record suggests.
No12 JEMADAR just ran out of steam last start at Newcastle, third-up, out to 1300m should help here.
No10 HILL SPY ran well in a good race at Albury and has a good wet track record and gets the country bump down in the weights
VALUE RUNNER: No10 HILL SPY